The charm and charisma of Priyanka Gandhi, who hit the poll campaign trail after two years, in both Amethi and Rai Bareilly, have captivated the State of Uttar Pradesh. In Lucknow, from working women to housewives, hardened mediapersons to senior bureaucrats, everybody is marvelling about her “zamini (grassroots) appeal, that her brother lacks”.
Seated in front of a senior bureaucrat in Bapu Bhavan in Lucknow, one who is not a Congress supporter by a mile, I marvelled at this otherwise cynical IAS officer gushing about how “Priyanka is a natural; she has it in her genes. It is unbelievable how effortlessly she can mix with the cadres and voters, something only Indira Gandhi could do, and Rahul Gandhi can't get right in a hundred years.”
His colleague, seated in the complex across the road, has few kind words for politicians, but admits he called up a TV journalist to congratulate him on “this very positive and heart-warming story you guys had telecast on Priyanka's Amethi visit. Otherwise, you media guys tell only negative stories about UP”.
Both the IAS officers agree that if she extends her campaign beyond the family pocketboroughs of Amethi and Rai Bareilly, “the Congress can put up a much better show.” Priyanka herself dimples to journalists: “If Rahul wants me to, I can campaign in other places too; I'll do anything to help my brother.”
Ground reality for Congress
But sentiment and feel-good factors apart, the reality on the ground is harsh for the Congress. It has not ruled the State for 20 years and in the 2007 Assembly elections it got a paltry 22 of the 403 Assembly seats. But the solid hard work put in by Congress General-Secretary, Rahul Gandhi, saw its fortunes revive splendidly in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, when it got an impressive 22 seats.
But a listless government in the Centre by the Congress-led UPA, reeling under a series of mega scams would have really hurt the Congress, but for a couple of lucky breaks.
One of these, explains the bureaucrat, is the “Herculean blunder” of the BJP in embracing Babu Singh Kushwaha, the tainted and expelled BSP minister. “With this one move, the BJP has negated all the hard work done by Anna Hazare against corruption which could have brought it votes, especially from youngsters,” he says.
An estimated 1.5 crore new voters will join the electorate in this election and there is expectation, at least among urban sections, that they will move away from caste and community considerations and vote on development issues.
But talk to a cross section of people in Lucknow — from lower-division clerks and chaprasis at the Secretariat to youngsters, mostly Muslims, in Ameenabad — and it doesn't take you long to realise how fractured the voting patterns could be in UP… as fractured and divided as the schisms in society and across classes.
Nasir and his friend Harsh are enjoying piping hot egg parathas from a street stall. Nasir, an inter-collegiate student, is excited about his first vote but not sure whom to vote for. He knows it won't be for the BSP, though. “Mayawati has done nothing for the development of UP in the last 5 years. Look at the state of the roads here.” Harsh agrees. Both are worried about the kind of jobs they will get when they complete their education.
Surprisingly, both of them think the Dr Ambedkar Park, which the Chief Minister has renovated, beautified and extended during her regime, is a “cool place to hang around in. Actually, we go there every evening.”
Rizwana and Manzoor — the latter works at a computer store — on the other hand, say they will vote for the BSP. Soon, they are joined by a friend, Mohammed Rashid, and the story gets curious. He says he is a BSP member, but is going to vote for Mulayam's SP. When I give him a quizzical look, he pulls out from his wallet his photo ID as a BSP cadre. “For two elections I voted for her, but she hasn't done anything for Muslims. Actually, no party does anything… except making promises. So I thought let me try somebody else this time.”
Buzz missing
Abdul, the paanwala, is more inclined towards the Congress, and so are two other Muslim youngsters who work at the famous Tunday ka Kebab outlet, proving right the general perception that the bulk of the 18 per cent Muslim vote will go to either the SP or the Congress.
But across Lucknow, any kind of election buzz is missing. Near the Press Club, a local journalist excitedly points to a BJP vehicle, saying: “This is the first party vehicle I have seen this time,” He gives credit to the Election Commission for keeping a hawk's eye on poll expenses by political parties.
At the Secretariat too, Jeetendra Yadav and Jogeshwar Yadav reiterate their support for the SP, saying they would never desert Netaji. Rajender Singh, a watchman, roots for the Congress but young Abhilekh Varma, a computer operator, says he is undecided yet. It is widely believed the Dalit vote, about 21 per cent, will by and large stay with Mayawati, and the Yadav vote — 12 per cent — with the SP.
So, it will primarily be the Muslim and upper caste votes that will decide the colour and contours of the next UP Assembly. A replication of the Maya magic of 2007 seems unlikely. The work done by both Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav is expected to improve their parties' performance considerably.