The Gross Budgetary Support (GBS) for 2012-13 may touch Rs 5.2 lakh crore, with an increase of more than 18 per cent over the current fiscal year. This includes both Central assistance to the States and allocation to various Central Ministries.
According to a source, there is also a move to classify the increase in allocation under three categories.
“Ministries with very high priority flagship programmes will get more. In fact, you may see the reflection of the political manifesto (in the allocations),” the source added. The GBS and the allocation will be announced in the General Budget to be tabled on March 16.
With the increase in GBS, the Government may be hoping to build the impression of a turnaround in the economy. Increasing expenditure will also build confidence among investors which, in turn, will facilitate growth, the source said. He added that in terms of increase in allocation, the Ministries could be divided into three categories.
Priority to food
The Ministries with priority flagship programmes may get a 20 per increase in resources, while the next category could get 10 per cent and the third category may have to content with a 5 per cent increase.
The source refused to divulge the names of the Ministries in various categories, but he indicated that the first category may include Ministries associated with food, rural development, health and education. Food is getting high priority because of the proposed Food Security Bill, while Rural Development is associated with the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee programme.
Although the Planning Commission is believed to be pushing for a 21 per cent increase in the GBS, resource constraints have led the Finance Ministry and the Commission to reportedly agree on a resource increase of Rs 50,000-60,000 crore for the next fiscal.
Carry-forward
Meanwhile, the source said that the revenue consideration for increasing resources involves two key factors — 2G spectrum auction and disinvestment. Though the Government is yet to finalise the base price and modalities for the 2G auction, it is expected to yield good revenue. The disinvestment target may be fixed at Rs 50,000 crore for 2012-13.
The Finance Ministry is also expecting some saving from this year's allocations. Since no Ministry can spend more than 33 per cent of its annual allocation in the last quarter, it is estimated that 10-15 per cent of allotted resources could remain unspent and could be taken forward for next year's expenditure, the source added.