After witnessing a downward trend over the last three months, the prices of pulses — mainly tur dal and urad dal — have rebounded over the past couple of weeks on account of a squeeze in supplies amidst rising demand.
The trade expects a firm trend in prices to remain over the next few months till the onset of the South-West monsoon. While the price of chana dal continues to rule firm amidst thinning arrivals, that of moong dal has been largely stable.
Retail prices of pulses have increased in the past two weeks (see table). The forecast of an above normal monsoon in the year ahead and record import of 5.5 million tonnes (mt) during 2015-16 has not had any impact on the prices.
Bimal Kothari, Vice-Chairman of the Indian Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA), attributed the latest price hike to the constraints in the supply chain, while growing consumption is driving the demand. “There is an acute short supply of tur and urad, which has resulted in prices rebounding. There are not enough stocks and the pipeline has dried up,” Kothari said, adding that prices would continue to rule firm over the next few months.
Monsoon woes The harvest of tur, which starts from December and continues till March, has ended. “Prices of tur dal had softened during the harvest season. Also, during this period the higher availability of fresh vegetables had prompted consumers to switch over from pulses. With the onset of summer, the supply of fresh vegetables is dwindling and demand for pulses has picked up resulting in a price rise,” Kothari said.
Acreage dips in AP, Telangana Successive deficient monsoons had impacted the production of both kharif and rabi pulses, resulting in a sharp surge in prices, catching both consumers and retailers off guard. In Hyderabad, the retail price of tur dal rose to ₹185 a kg (₹158 in the wholesale market) from ₹155 within the last 7-10 days.
The price of urad or blackgram has gone up to over ₹200 (₹195 wholesale) from ₹160. “The rise was so sharp. We are hearing reports of hoarding in local markets after they smelt the impending demand,” P Shankar, a consumer in Hyderabad, said.
There was a significant drop in the area under pulses in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana last year. With the failure of both the seasons owing to severe drought conditions, production levels have plummeted. The wholesale markets expect lower inflows of pulses, particularly tur and urad this year.
Ajitesh Mullick, Associate Vice-President at Religare Commodities, expects the firm trend in pulses pricing to continue till the onset of the monsoon. “We are expecting the production of chana to be lower on account of poor rainfall last year,” he added.
According to the 2nd Advance Estimates, the Centre expects production of pulses to be around 17.33 mt this year, up a tad from the previous year’s 17.15 mt, while the annual domestic consumption is pegged at between 22 and 23 mt.