The Reserve Bank of India’s forward-looking surveys present an overall uptick in the economy.
While the survey of 40 professional forecasters on macroeconomic indicators placed GDP growth forecasts in the range of 6.6-7.2 per cent for 2022-23, a Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey indicated improvement in the overall business situation with respondents, especially optimistic on employment and availability of finance.
Another survey that measures consumer confidence, stated that the index improved further both for the current period and for the year ahead with the current situation index (CSI) continuing on its recovery path for the ninth survey round since the historic low recorded in mid-2021 and increased by 1.3 points in January 2023.
However, the Households’ Inflation Expectations Survey expects higher price pressures for household durables and cost of housing over the next three months when compared to the previous survey round.
CPI inflation
The survey of professional forecasters showed headline CPI inflation (y-o-y) is expected at 5.7 per cent during Q4:2022-23 and moderate thereafter to 4.7 per cent by Q1:2023-24. During the next two quarters, it is expected to remain in the range of 5-5.2 per cent.
Experts including Abhishek Gupta (Bloomberg Economics), Aditi Nayar (ICRA Limited), Debopam Chaudhuri (Piramal Enterprise Limited), Madan Sabnavis (Bank of Baroda), Manasi Swamy (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt. Ltd.), and Upasna Bhardwaj (Kotak Mahindra Bank) participated in the survey.
Services sector
The Services and Infrastructure Outlook Survey, in which 1,091 companies provided their assessment, said the job landscape is likely to expand further in the services sector for both full-time and part-time employees.
Service companies expect similar cost pressures on a sequential basis and polled for higher growth in both selling prices and profit margins during Q4:2022-23.
The bi-monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, covering 6,047 respondents. across 19 cities, said the one-year ahead outlook, as reflected by the future expectations index (FEI), rose by 1.3 points to its two-year high on the back of improved optimism on the general economic situation, employment and income over the next one year.