Rooftop solar set-ups would have become the norm by 2040, according to the Niti Aayog. But in the immediate run-up to universal coverage of electricity, it may not be viable to tap rooftop solar for homes, according to the Niti Aayog’s Draft National Energy Policy.

The policy also notes that the share of solar and wind is expected to be 14-18 per cent and 9-11 per cent in electricity, and 3-5 per cent and 2-3 per cent in the primary commercial energy mix by 2040.

However, oil and gas would have almost maintained their shares of 26 per cent and 6.5 per cent in 2015-16 to 25-27 per cent and 8-9 per cent in 2040, respectively. This will be in spite of a more than three times increase in gas consumption, owing to a large increase in total energy, the increase in gas would be less in percentage terms. While coal would have risen in absolute terms (nearly double), but in relative terms, it would have reduced its contribution from 58 per cent in 2015 to 44-50 per cent in 2040. The overall share of fossil fuels would have come down from 81 per cent in 2012 to 78 per cent by 2040.

Import dependence on oil and gas is estimated to rise to 81-88 per cent and 35-51 per cent by 2040. Therefore, while registering a 2.7-3.2 time growth in energy supply, the country’s dependence on overseas supply is expected to increase.

Niti Aayog states that the pricing, subsidy and affordability aspects of energy supply will undergo the most dramatic change of all. The country will have transitioned to direct benefit transfer (DBT) to the meritorious, and also make it possible for the vulnerable sections to exercise choice in procuring their preferred source of energy.

By 2040, solid biomass is expected to be replaced by liquid and gaseous fuels, and electric cooking will be a major practice across the country, according to the Niti Aayog’s vision. But 30 per cent of the rural households will remain dependent on solid biomass for cooking.

Related Topics