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Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) has revised upward its India economic growth forecast for fiscal 2015-16 to 7.7 per cent under the new series from its earlier estimate of 6.3 per cent growth under the old series.
The upward revision comes on the expectation of kick start in investment cycle on the ground in fiscal 2015-16. It also comes on the back of central statistics office (CSO) move to peg the real GDP growth estimate (with financial year 2011-12 as the new base year) at 7.4 per cent for 2014-15 as against 6.9 per cent in 2013-14.
"We agree with the broad recovery trend in 2014-15 as suggested by the new GDP series, but are surprised by the pace of recovery it indicates", Samiran Chakraborty, Head of Research, SCB in India said in a research note. SCB sees the statistical boost to GDP to continue in 2015-16.
India's revised GDP series indicates that the economy has recovered rapidly in the past two years, according to the SCB note. A sharp fall in inflation rather than improvement in volume growth likely to have led to a spike in real GDP growth, it added.
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