Noted economist and Carl Marks Professor of International Studies at Cornell University, US, Prof Kaushik Basu, expressed disappointment over unemployment data being held back and underlined indications of an economic slowdown in the country.

Addressing the 54th Convocation of Indian Institute of Management - Ahmedabad (IIM-A) on Saturday, Basu said, “There are unmistakable signs of India’s economy slowing down over the last few years. The latest data on industrial growth, pertaining to January, shows that India’s industry is barely growing, with the growth rate down to 1.7 per cent... What is happening to overall growth? The official data shows that GDP growth in the last quarter has gone down.”

Basu further said in 2017-18 India’s exports were a little less than what the country exported in 2013-14, “which means virtually zero per cent growth in exports on average for four years, which has rarely happened in the past,” he added.

The economist highlighted the distress situation in the agricultural sector and expressed concern on the jobs front. “The farmers feel neglected. The most worrying is the jobs situation. If you put together all the piecemeal data coming in, it is clear that our workers are suffering greatly, with unemployment rate at over 7 per cent, according to the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy, and youth unemployment at 16 per cent, as per a study by Azim Premji University.”

“It is unfortunate that data on unemployment are being held back. The concern about this, expressed recently by 108 leading economists, is a genuine concern,” he added.

Strong fundamentals

However, he expressed optimism about India’s economic strength given the strong fundamentals. “The two reasons why this (slowdown) is happening are a shortage of professionalism and a disproportionate focus on big businesses and their interests. The first pertains to reason and the second to morals. Professionalism means policy-making based on data and reasoning. The economy is too complex to be handled by hunch and gut feeling.”

Global recognition

Referring to the global recognition for India’s statistical work, Basu said as a Chief Economist at the World Bank, he found India standing out, “not just among emerging economies but all countries, for the quality and integrity of its statistical system. We must take care not to damage this reputation,” he said adding, “India commands a huge global respect for its polity of openness and tolerance. There are forces at work in the country that want to destroy this and make us in the image of failed nations.”

Related Topics