Time ripe for a broader India-US partnership?

US President Barack Obama’s upcoming visit to India will mark several firsts in bilateral relations: This is the first time an American President is attending India’s Republic Day celebrations as chief guest and Obama will also be the first US President to have visited New Delhi twice in his presidency.

Will the R-Day summit also open a new chapter in bilateral cooperation between the world’s oldest and biggest democracies, given the ups and downs in the recent past? Experts seem to have divergent views as the Pakistan factor and India’s equations with other major countries such as China and Russia continue to influence India-US relations.

“This is going to be a historical summit. In the past four months, both (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi and Obama had met thrice. This is the fourth meeting, which shows the degree of comfort India has in ties with the US,” says Chintamani Mahapatra, a professor of international studies in Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Modi had visited the US in September on an invitation from the White House. Later, he met Obama during the East Asia Summit in Naypyidaw, Myanmar, and then at the G-20 summit in Brisbane, Australia.

Mahapatra says the global situation is conducive for a broader Indo-American partnership. “There are plenty of unpredictable situations. There’s the fear of the Taliban gaining foothold in Afghanistan. ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) is growing in strength in West Asia and Pakistan has to be pushed to act tough against terror. Enhanced military cooperation between the two countries is going to help both in tackling these challenges.”

The Modi government, since it assumed office in May, has been pushing for a greater role for India in Asian geopolitics. The Prime Minister visited Japan in September, and indirectly criticised an “18th-century-style expansionist” China. Further, India is reported to have played a role in unifying the fractured Sri Lankan opposition against the Island nation’s pro-China President Mahinda Rajapaksa in the recent elections. Rajapaksa lost the race and the new President Maithripala Sirisena, has told India he will review all projects awarded to Chinese firms.

The Obama administration is particularly interested in Modi’s focus on the neighbourhood. “Prime Minister Modi has undertaken to build from what has been a ‘Look East’ policy to an ‘Act East’ policy,” US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Daniel Russel said in Washington last month. “He has shown in word and deed his interest in involving India in the thinking and the affairs of the broader region. That’s very much to be welcomed.”

The US sees India as a counterweight to China’s growing geopolitical strength. India, which fought a border war with China in 1962, is also wary of its giant neighbour’s rise.

“Clearly, to gain primacy in Asia, India wants US support for encircling China as well as cornering Pakistan on terrorism… Improved Indo-US relations could reduce the importance of countries like China and others in Asia,” says Phunchok Stobdan, a security analyst, who was India’s former ambassador to Kyrgyzstan.

But this bonhomie has its limits. Pakistan remains a major irritant in Indo-US ties. India wants the US to push Pakistan further to rein in anti-India terror groups operating from that country. Though US-Pakistan ties have been on a downward curve recently, Washington still provides military and financial aid to its Cold War ally. “The US will always find Islamabad strategically more relevant than India. The kind of things that Pakistan has done for the US and may continue to do in future cannot be matched by India. Pakistan’s value will be reduced once there is an actual thaw between the US and Iran,” says Stobdan.

Not everybody is of the view that greater ties with the US would naturally benefit India. Atul Bharadwaj, a Senior Fellow at the Indian Council of Social Science Research, says India should be wary of getting “militarily closer” with America. “As in the 1950s, America again feels that India is the best counterpoise to China. Willy-nilly, India is getting more and more embroiled in this American game. This will surely have its impact on India’s ties with China and Russia.”

Stobdan, the former diplomat, agrees. “India will have no option but to pursue a more balanced position” as sustaining traditional bonds and engagement with other counties such as Russia is “extremely critical for India’s geopolitical power play and pursuit of interests,” he says.