For now, the Finance Ministry is not looking at revising its 2012-13 GDP growth forecast of 7.6 per cent despite sombre global outlook, high inflation and elevated deficit.
This is even as the Central Statistics Office (CSO) last week revised downwards the economic growth estimate for 2011-12 to 6.5 per cent from the 6.9 per cent advance estimate put out in February this year.
Noting that the Ministry would strive to maintain numbers that had been projected for 2012-13, the Economic Affairs Secretary, Mr R. Gopalan, on Monday said that economic growth this fiscal would definitely be higher than the level recorded in 2011-12.
“It (GDP growth) could be in the range of 7 per cent plus (for 2012-13),” he told reporters on the sidelines of a FICCI event, adding that this growth level provided enough scope for corporates to perform well.
The Finance Ministry had in this year's Economic Survey projected economic growth of 7.6 +/- 0.25 per cent for 2012-13.
Mr Gopalan also expressed some reservation about the correctness of the CSO's latest GDP estimate, stating that 6.5 per cent was on the lower side.
“I am not sure how these numbers (CSO revised estimate) should be taken because these do not capture the momentum in the SME (small and medium enterprises) sector which is one of the important ones in the economy,” he said.
Rupee outlook
On the rupee situation, Mr Gopalan said the RBI was constantly monitoring the exchange rate, and added that lowering of global crude oil prices would have a positive impact on inflation in the coming days.
He said the Finance Ministry was constantly tracking the Euro Zone situation.
“We need to look at how the Greece elections turn out. Employment in the US is another area of concern. The good thing is we have crude oil prices going down,” Mr Gopalan said.