In March 2020, former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah was released after spending more than seven months in jail following the scrapping of special constitutional provisions of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and splitting the region into two Union Territories on August 5, 2019.  Although Abdullah steered clear of speaking about the Union government’s radical move, he later made it clear that he would not contest assembly polls as long as J&K remained a Union Territory. 

His arch-rival and another former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti also vowed not to contest the Assembly polls till “Article 370 is restored”. 

Following their setbacks in the Lok Sabha elections, speculations arose about whether they will contest the upcoming Assembly polls, spurring an intriguing debate. 

J&K has been reeling under the Central rule since 2018 following the collapse of the PDP-BJP coalition government. It has been almost a decade since the last assembly polls were held. Following the abrogation of the special status to Jammu and Kashmir, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, on many occasions, made it clear that the elections in the region would be held after the delimitation exercise, while the restoration of Statehood was promised after the assembly elections were held. 

Political observers in J&K believe that the recent defeat in Lok Sabha polls has put both the leaders in a tight spot.

 “They might be in a quandary. It will be difficult for them to decide whether to contest elections or not,” said a Valley-based political observer and academic. 

He said that their decision of abstaining from contesting elections would also impact their prospects of becoming the Chief Ministers, should their respective parties are voted to power.

“It would be a strange predicament for them,” added the academic. 

The resistance 

The August 5 decision has downgraded a historically autonomous State to a Union Territory, significantly centralising powers with the Union government. Despite having its representative government, the administrative powers in Union Territories with legislatures typically lean towards the Lieutenant Governor. The former Chief Ministers who previously had considerable autonomy may find it challenging to rule a Union Territory, given the shift in dynamics and reduced authority. 

Assembly polls

On December 11, 2023, while the Supreme Court upheld  the Union government’s decision of abrogating Article 370, it directed the government to hold the assembly elections in the region by September 2024. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has already made it clear that the polls would be held soon after the Lok Sabha polls. 

On June 8, the ECI invited applications from the political parties, seeking allotment of the common symbols for Assembly polls. The move is seen as a step-forward towards holding the elections. It will be interesting to see if Abdullah and Mufti contest the elections. 

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