While growth in the mobile subscriber base seems to have slowed down, revenues from data services are rising, according to Gartner.
The Indian mobile subscriber base is forecast to reach 696 million connections in 2012, up 9 per cent from 638 million in 2011, according to Gartner. The subscriber based in the previous year stood at 533 million, according to TRAI. Revenues from mobile services such as SMS, Internet or ringtones are projected to hit $30 billion in 2016.
The Indian MVAS industry is estimated to grow to Rs 48,200 crore by 2015 from the current estimated size of Rs 12,200 crore, according to Deloitte. ARPUs, which have been on the decline in the period 2008-10, are finally starting to see some stability, according to the Gartner report.
From a 2010 low of Rs 150, ARPUs seem to have stabilised at Rs 200, according to the research firm. This is primarily due to growth in tier-2 and tier-3 cities coupled with growth of smartphones and Internet usage, say industry watchers.
“This has been driven by the expansion of mobile services in semi-urban and rural markets and the availability of cheap mobile devices,” said Ms Shalini Verma, Principal Analyst, Consumer Technology and Markets, Gartner. Despite this improvement in ARPU, India lags China when it comes to mobile services.
The mobile services penetration in India is currently at 51 per cent and expected to grow to 72 per cent by 2016, whereas China has achieved 71 per cent mobile services penetration in 2011 and is forecast to grow to 119 per cent in 2016. Also, this has affected the broadband uptake in the country, which lags behind developed and developing countries.
India's fixed broadband household penetration was 6 per cent in 2011, which is lower than the overall penetration in emerging markets, which, Gartner estimates at 16 per cent in 2011.