Personal computers have been pronounced dead. Many an obituary has been written. Analysts around the world also seem to be in a hurry to envisage a world without PCs. Surprisingly though, even as these ‘experts’ are busy creating a “PC-Less World”, a breed of new PCs are stealthily making inroads into consumers’ homes.
We are at the dawn of the PC-age today. Only 10 per cent of the world, i.e. less than one billion out of seven billion, owns a PC. Large swathes of the world are still excluded from the digital age and remain uninitiated on the wonders and capability of the internet.
As more and more people get connected into their personal computer in the new information world, we will see a drastic increase in personal empowerment and productivity. The market for PCs is on the threshold of an explosive growth trajectory, which will redefine our personal and professional life.
Evolution
Like always, the PC will continue to evolve and morph into new forms and shapes, as technologies develop and become more affordable for mass markets. That has been the case ever since we saw the first PCs in the 80s, and change will remain the only constant in this fast-paced industry.
The first so called personal computer I recall using was in the late 80’s. It was as personal as the office photocopying machine. Those were still the pre-Windows days. The ‘PC’ used to be housed in a special room with a special dust proof cover and multiple users. It required special training to operate it and to work on it was as exciting as a cold shower on a winter morning. Calling it a “personal computer” was certainly stretching the definition of the PC.
As graphical interfaces evolved, we then moved into the era of the family computer in the mid - 90’s. Costing about a lakh – these were certainly an enhancement/improvement to the “personal quotient” even if they were used by the entire family. Parents, tech-savvy grandparents, teenagers and children, accessed the same computer.
As the prices began to fall, the computer became a middle class durable stored in a commonly accessible place, with the ubiquitous dust proof cover still intact!
The first true personal computer that began to take off in the first decade of the new century was when laptops volumes began to increase rapidly. Laptops were the first computers which were completely ‘personal’ in the sense that the PC now belonged to an individual, customised to his/her needs, and often hosting his most personal and financial information.
I remember a memorable ad campaign of that era –“The Computer Is Personal Again”. Apart from the word “Again” – the ad was spot on as for the first time computers were truly personal.
What is the PC?
So how does one define the personal computer? Again, there are many definitions but my favourite one is that it is a digital device which enables a person to “work, play & connect” by recording, computing, transmitting, storing and displaying digital information. By that definition, smartphones, tablets, laptops, desktops, even smart televisions fall into the category of personal computing. Infact, today’s smart phone is far more powerful and capable than yesterday’s desktop PC. So the evolution of PC into a versatile device needs to reflect in our definition as well.
Why then do we think of the PC as in its last days? That is because of a fundamental fallacy in how some people define the PC. For them the PC is defined very narrowly as a “Proprietary Control” device not as a personal computing device. a PC needs an X-86 processor and a tiny number of operating systems. The definition of PC was restricted to the dictates of one or two major stake-holders. The proprietary control device industry is now on its last legs, and that is why those who equate PC with Proprietary Control call it dead.
But those who look at PCs in its broadest and most empowering sense as a personal computing device, envision the dawn of a new era. An era where the number of PCs- smartphone PCs, tablet PCs, SmartTV PCs are collectively exploding not just in the number of units sold but in the new form factors coming up – hybrid PCs, flip keyboards and many other forms we cannot imagine.
We will soon see computers embedded in other devices as what is called the internet of things begins to prevail and things begin to talk to other things, the refrigerator talks to your mobile to your air-conditioner. Soon more devices (50M) will connect to each other than people to people. The possibilities are endless.
Future of PC
Three key factors will drive the golden age of PCs.
First, as the proprietary quasi-monopoly control points disappear, we will see intense competition across the entire value chain which will drive much more innovation, and consequently, bring price points down. As price points drop much below Rs 10,000 and innovative Governments subsidise and promote free PCs, new pricing models will emerge, with no upfront costs, which are service and application led. Once affordability increases, the boom will follow the same exponential and virtuous path as mobile phones.
Secondly, the PCs have always been a very complex device and required a certain level of literacy before it could be used. As today’s complex interface gives way to voice and imagery, we can expand the boundaries of literacy and empower billions who were disempowered because of their lack of English knowledge and so-called “compute” skills. The computer will be less about clock speeds and other techno-mumbo jumbo and more about computer graphics and reality simulation.
And finally, as devices proliferate, chips become cheaper and more powerful, we will see a proliferation in device types as simplicity and ease of use will pre-dominate and devices will talk to other devices and the PCs will make each of us into personal champs!
However it is going to be anything but a cakewalk for the players. There will be new definitions of winners and losers as the rules of the game undergo this paradigm shift. .
A new era
The new industry as it progresses will have tough and robust competition across the entire value chain. It will once again hand power over to the consumers and the only players who will survive will be those that can provide a total solution to the customer – from hardware to software to solutions. The fruits will go to those who seize the opportunity, risk everything and take leadership. This is no time for the weak or the fainthearted.
It is no surprise that the early lead has gone to the players who were furthest away from proprietary control points, Apple and Samsung. Those vendors whose thinking and way of life is still dominated by proprietary control points will fall by the way side. The winners will be those without any baggage and who will respond quickly to the market place and rapidly build scale.
As the winners begin to take charge, they will capture large parts of the profit pool at the expense of the abnormal profits that proprietary control points used to garner, thereby improving the health of the industry. Historically, the PC industry has been characterised by “never have I seen so many bright people working so hard to make so little money”. That is about to change
A new era beckons. Just as India witnessed the mobile phone explosion in the early years of the millennium, we will see a new personal computer explosion which has the power and potential to change our lives for the better. Fasten your seat belts, the ride is just beginning!
(The writer is Managing Director and Regional Vice President of Sales and Marketing for AMD India)