Target: ₹1,065
CMP: ₹739.75
Despite disrupted key raw material supplies, higher utility costs and crude oil prices, Aarti’s FY22 revenue/EBITDA/PAT rose 41 per cent/32 per cent/38 per cent. With utilisation picking up at the recently-commissioned capacities, starting of revenue from long-term contracts and rising share of downstream and value-added products, we expect the strong growth momentum to persist.
Aarti’s Q4 revenue (adjusted by excluding the ₹630-crore termination fees in Q3 FY22) grew 45 per cent year-on-year to ₹1,750 crore (but was flat quarter on quarter), backed by better realisations (on sharp spikes in raw material costs and other utilities passed on) and good volume gains. .
The management says growth could have been higher, but shortage of nitric acid (a key raw material) curbed production.
Aarti’s FY22 capex was ₹1,300 crore. Its major expansion projects (third long-term contract, pharma US FDA expansion, NCB capacity expansion) are expected to come on stream in FY23. Capex is expected to be ₹3,000 crore by FY24. The management guided high single-digit growth in EBITDA in FY23 and significant increase in EBITDA in FY24 as capacity utilisation is expected to reach 80-90 per cent.
Risks: Delay in implementing capex; a slow ramp-up of added capacities and delay in LT contracts.
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