Target: ₹2,415
CMP: ₹1,878.50
We expect InterGlobe Aviation (Indigo) to register ₹300 crore/₹2,300 crore PBT (ex-forex impact) in Q4FY23/FY23.
Profits are highly sensitive to yields which is the key upside/downside risk to our estimates. However, IndiGo remains well placed to benefit from strong systemic demand and its leading competitive positioning.
IndiGo remains focused on growth (>15 per cent ASK growth in FY24, doubling the fleet by 2030) and internationalisation (increase ASK mix to 30 per cent over next two years from 23 per cent in 9MFY23). These goals are intended to be achieved within the already existing business framework (low cost, hassle-free service, on-time operations with uniform fleet).
We expect Q4FY23 to be a good quarter for airlines after factoring in the expected seasonal weakness. In line with the company guidance, we expect available seat kilometre (ASK) of 11,300 for IndiGo in FY23, implying 3,000 in Q4FY23.
Basis PLF (passenger load factor) trends (83 per cent in Jan and 87 per cent in Feb’23), we expect total domestic passengers of about 2 crore for IndiGo in Q4FY23. We project 24 lakh international passengers for IndiGo in Q4FY23 compared to 23 lakh in Q3FY23.