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Target: ₹825
CMP: ₹764.90
Sales were up 14.1 per cent y-o-y at ₹4,330 crore, majorly led by India business (+9.5 per cent y-o-y), APAC (15 per cent y-o-y), and API business (+46 per cent y-o-y) while US business remains flat at $175 on a QoQ basis.
The US sales got impacted due to the lack of new launches and seasonality. gSupreb has strong volume growth and Alubetrol had a stable market share of 20 per cent.
Diabetic business was impacted due to the genericisation of patented products, while strong growth was seen in respiratory, cardiac and gynaec.
We get more confidence in Lupin’s business due to: New launches in the US market like Darunavir, Cynocobalamin, Diazepem Gel, Vereniciline, Bromfenac, etc. excluding gSpirva; double-digit growth in India business as the company has already increased MR numbers to 1,000; the uptick in the API business as the API industry is witnessing demand comeback.
Lupin’s margins at 13 per cent are still below the industry levels of 22 per cent, therefore we foresee a significant scope for margins improvement in the upcoming quarters. We expect the macro environment to be in favour of the industry led by a fall in the raw material prices, low logistics and fuel costs.
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