The India Met Department expects a low-pressure area to form over the East but located over the Bangladesh coast.
The causative upper air cyclonic circulation had shifted base from over sea (Northwest Bay) to a location over land overnight on Monday.
NOT IDEAL LOCATIONA land-based low-pressure area may not have been the ideal thing that the monsoon wanted at this stage, but has to make-do with it now. The location most preferred from the monsoon point of view is around the Head Bay of Bengal.
Its projected coordinates mean that most parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat and west Madhya Pradesh would have to wait for any meaningful rain.
The ‘low’ will preside over a revival of monsoon mainly over East and North-East India; along the Himalayan foothills and the West Coast.
A Met report said that conditions were becoming favourable for advance of the monsoon into more parts of Uttar Pradesh and some of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and Haryana during next four days.
This will come about as the ‘low’ fans moisture-laden south-easterly winds from the Bay into the region.
The preparatory trough across the plains of North-West and East India now extends from Punjab and cuts through Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal before dipping into East-central Bay of Bengal.
The trough is expected to gobble up the ‘low’ over Bangladesh and embed it so that its play becomes concentrated within so that parts of the plains also benefit from rain.
Meanwhile, an east-to-west ‘shear zone’ of monsoon turbulence has come back into position in the higher levels of the atmosphere over peninsular India.
This zone signals the revival of monsoon and also represents the region where the monsoon is most active with a rub-off impact on the ground level.
As is expected, the current location of the ‘low’ would mean that the heavy to very heavy rain from it would get concentrated to East and North-East India.
HEAVY IN EASTWest Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and Odisha in East India; the West Coast; and parts of the plains of North-West India would receive monsoon showers until July 7.
Heavy to very heavy rain were recorded over the East and North-East during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning.
Centres receiving very heavy rainfall included Siliguri (25 cm); Cherrapunji (17 cm); and Panagarh (12 cm); and Darjeeling (10 cm).