Crude oil futures remained steady on Tuesday morning as the market waited for data on the US inventory level for the week ending July 19.
At 9.53 am on Tuesday, September Brent oil futures were at $82.43, up by 0.04 per cent, and September crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $78.39, down by 0.01 per cent.
August crude oil futures were trading at ₹6565 on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹6560, up by 0.08 per cent.
The industry body American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release crude oil inventory data for the week ending June 19 later in the day. The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) is expected to release the official data on crude oil inventory level on Wednesday.
Quoting Morgan Stanley’s analysts’ note, market reports said the oil market will likely shift into a surplus by 2025, with prices expected to fall within the mid-to-high $70s range.
Morgan Stanley said the market was set to reach equilibrium by the fourth quarter. It said waning seasonal demand and an expected increase in output worldwide would drive the surplus in 2025.
However, it expects oil prices to end the third quarter at $86 a barrel.
Meanwhile, the ING Think’s Commodities Feed by Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy, and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist, said oil prices came under further pressure yesterday with demand concerns lingering in the market.
“However, we remain constructive towards the market through the third quarter and still expect prices to move higher from current levels. OPEC+ cuts should ensure that the market tightens in the current quarter. However, how tight it will get will depend on how Chinese demand evolves,” they said.
ING Think’s Commodities Feed said Hungary and Slovakia have asked the EU to persuade Ukraine to allow the resumption of crude oil flows from Lukoil, which would be Russian oil transiting through Ukraine. Ukraine halted these flows due to tightening sanctions against the producer. Hungary has said that it will take Ukraine to court to resolve the issue if Ukraine fails to agree. Lukoil supplies around 45 per cent of Slovakia’s total imports and a little more than 30 per cent of Hungary’s total imports.
It said that 240,000 barrels a day Tuapse refinery in Russia caught fire on Monday following a further Ukrainian drone attack. While infrastructure at the refinery has been damaged, it is unclear whether it has disrupted refinery operations. Further strikes on Russian refinery capacity would support refined product prices due to lower output and somewhat bearish for crude oil, as it would increase the availability of crude oil for export, the Commodities Feed said.
July menthaoil futures were trading at ₹941.60 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹935.50, up by 0.65 per cent.
On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), August jeera contracts were trading at ₹25980 in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹26240, down by 0.99 per cent.
August guar seed futures were trading at ₹5437 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Tuesday against the previous close of ₹5479, down by 0.77 per cent.
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