India’s seaborne thermal coal imports fell to a four-month low in June 2024 reflecting the seasonal weakness in power demand as monsoon rains spread across the country bringing down temperatures.

As monsoon rain forecasts continue to be favourable, analysts expect imports to continue to slip during July and August, before a seasonal upturn takes place in September 2024.

According to energy intelligence firm Kpler, India’s thermal coal imports, largely consumed by the power sector, fell a steep 22.8 per cent m-o-m to 13.62 million tonnes (mt) interrupting the five-month rally this year during which cargoes of the critical fuel rose from 13.53 mt in January to a six-month high of 17.57 mt in May.

However, shipments were higher, albeit marginally by 1.4 per cent, on an annual basis. According to the National Power Portal, India’s coal-based power plants reported a plant load factor (PLF), or capacity utilisation, of 74.90 per cent last month, compared with 77.17 per cent and 76.48 per cent in April and May 2024, respectively.

Kpler’s Lead Major Dry Bulks Analyst, Alexis Ellender, told businessline, “Indian seaborne thermal coal imports slowed sharply in June, dropping by 3.95 mt m-o-m to 13.62 mt , but in line with the year-ago level. Although we had anticipated this trend, the steepness of the decline was greater than expected.”

The slowdown in thermal coal imports in June primarily reflects a seasonal fall in demand as monsoon rains bring lower temperatures. There was also a modest drawdown of stockpiles at the country’s power stations, he added.

Imports losing steam

The extension of the blending directive, due to expire at the end of June, designed to push utilities to import more coal will support seaborne demand.

However, an easing of the blending requirements from 6 per cent imported with domestic coal to 4 per cent suggests concerns about supply tightness are reduced, he added.

“We had already included a sharp slowdown in thermal coal imports in our Q3 2024 Indian import projections and therefore our forecast for July imports is unchanged at close to 13 mt. Despite a recent drawdown, stockpiles at power stations are still around a third higher y-o-y and are expected to weigh on demand.

“Domestic production continues to report strong annual growth and a fall in earnings for dry bulk vessels operating on Indonesia-India coal routes in the first half of July indicates to us that Indian coal imports are unlikely to significantly pick up in the short term. Imports are expected to remain low through August before a seasonal upturn takes place in September. Imports for the quarter are forecast to record modest annual growth,” Ellender explained.

Prices under control

Even as India witnessed unprecedented heat waves lifting the country’s power demand during the summer months (April-June), the prices on power exchanges were largely flat on an annual basis.

The Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) in its June 2024 commentary said that proactive measures taken by the government and the regulators, including the sale of surplus un-requisitioned power on power exchanges, increased fuel supply and ensuring higher availability of generating units led to an increased sell liquidity on the exchanges which kept the prices under control on exchanges.

“Therefore, despite the increase in the electricity consumption, the market clearing price in Day Ahead Market during June 2024 was ₹5.40 per unit, similar as last year, however it was lower by more than 20 per cent compared with prices discovered under bilateral contracts,” it added.

Hot weather conditions led to an unprecedented surge in electricity demand during the first quarter of FY25 with India’s energy consumption hitting 452 billion units (BU), higher by 11.2 per cent from Q1 FY24. During the quarter, the country’s peak demand hit 250 GW, surpassing the previous high of 243 GW recorded in September 2023.

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