London copper rose more than 1 per cent on Thursday, after dropping to a one-month low in the previous session, as the dollar sagged on indications of a later start to US interest rate hikes.
Most of Wall Street’s top banks see the US Federal Reserve holding off until at least September before raising rates for the first time since 2006, after the central bank on Wednesday had lowered its assessment on the economy.
That pushed the dollar off 12-year peaks set on Friday amid expectations then that rates would be hiked in June.
“It’s all about the US dollar and it’s pretty short-term,’’ said analyst Joel Crane at Morgan Stanley in Melbourne.
A softer greenback makes dollar-denomiated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.
London Metal Exchange copper rose 1.3 per cent to $5,745 a tonne by 0705 GMT, off Wednesday’s low of $5,621.50. Shanghai copper fell 1 per cent to 41,720 yuan ($6,734) a tonne, off an intraday one-month low of 41,120 yuan.
Freeport workers strike
A protest by Freeport’s Indonesian workers at the Grasberg copper mine has not impacted treatment fees so far, but could if it drags on, an Asia-based concentrates trader said.
Production has been halted at Grasberg as workers blocked an access road to the site for a fourth day.
Lower concentrate supply could bring down the spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) further from a range of mid-$90s per tonne/9 cents per pound to $100/10 cents now.
This is below benchmark TC/RCs set by Freeport with Chinese smelters at $107/10.7 cents for 2015.
Miners pay TC/RCs to smelters to convert concentrate into refined metal. As the supply of concentrate drops, the demand for smelting capacity and the charges also decrease, translating into lower profits for smelters.
In other metals, LME nickel and lead and aluminium and tin climbed 1 percent or more.
But the gains were mainly driven by a weak dollar.
Globally there was still a nickel surplus of 5,200 tonnes in January, although narrower than December's 17,200 tonnes, the International Nickel Study Group said.
“Metal prices are likely to stay moribund until we get signals on (China) demand and so far all signals point to weakness,’’ Crane said.
China’s average new home prices fell at the fastest pace on record in February, stoking concerns about the impact of slowing construction growth on metals demand.
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