Are the national crop production targets for 2022-23 recently released by the Union Ministry of Agriculture realistic and achievable? Doubts persist. Clearly, production targets for some of the crops like pulses and oilseeds are not just ambitious but unlikely to be achieved for a variety of reasons.

If the policymakers assume that the current high prices of crops by themselves will ensure higher production in 2022-23 they may be mistaken. In our country experience shows that production response to prices is limited and varies from crop to crop.

Production target for pulses has been placed at a new high of 29.55 million tonnes, some 10 percent higher than the government estimated production number of 26.9 m t for 2021-22. The official estimate is seen overstated by at least 10 percent while actual output may be close to 23.0 m t.

Specifically, at 13.1 million tonnes, chana or chickpea production in 2021-22 is widely seen as an overstated number even as realistically the output should be closer to 10.0 ml t. Indeed, the government revised down its Kharif 2021-22 pulses production estimate from 9.5 m t to 8.6 m t (see BL Commentary March 21 “Is government’s Rabi crop harvest overestimated?).

This downward revision is likely to happen to Rabi crop production estimate also in the third advance estimate to be published in May.

Seen in this context, the 2022-23 target of 29.5 m t is too optimistic and perhaps beyond reach this year. If anything, area under pulses cultivation is reaching a saturation point. It would be unrealistic to expect any marked expansion in cultivated area under ‘business-as-usual’ condition. Area expansion calls for a creative disruption of existing policies and incentives.

In case of oilseeds too, the production target of 41.3 ml t for 2022-23 is seen as ambitious and somewhat unrealistic. The ministry has provided only total production target for kharif and Rabi seasons (and not shared specific production target for individual oilseed crops). It is clear the reliance is substantially on soybean in Kharif and rapeseed/mustard in Rabi season.

Like in pulses, in oilseeds too the 2021-22 production estimate is seen overstated by 10 to 15 percent for both soybean and mustard. Here again there are limits to expanding the planted area.

Take cotton whose target is set at 37.0 million bales, unchanged from previous year. An unprecedented price rally is sure to encourage growers to maximize the planted area this year. But experience of 2021-22 shows output at an estimated 34.1 million bales has fallen short of the year’s target of 37.0 million bales. 

The India Meteorological Department’s recent forecast of a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon in 2022 is somewhat loaded. It is well known, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall is key to good kharif crops and there is a hint that such distribution may be sub-optimal this year.

In addition to weather challenges, rising input costs and overall cost of living may also make growers compromise on input management and agronomy. Simply stated, the country has to be ready for lower harvests than has been targeted. 

(The author is a policy commentator and agribusiness specialist. Views are personal).