The dollar started the trade in Asia on Monday on the defensive, after a volatile few days in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s dovish comments, which cast doubts on a June rate increase and bullish positions in the greenback.
The dollar index eased 0.1 per cent to 97.761 on Monday, staying well clear of a 12-year peak of 100.390 set on March 13.
#dollar rally could take a pause, a near-term consolidation looks likely
— Gurumurthy K (@gurukmurthy)
March 23, 2015The index was nearing the post-Fed meeting trough of 96.628 hit last week when investors moved to price in a later start and a slower pace for US rate rises.
“(Federal Reserve Chair Janet) Ms Yellen’s latest comment is weighing on the dollar,’’ said Masashi Murata, Tokyo-based currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.
“Many market participants see that the Fed expressed some concerns over the dollar’s recent appreciation.’’
On the dollar, Fed Chair Yelllen had said in a press conference after Wednesday’s statement that the Fed “noted that export growth has weakened, probably the strong dollar is one reason for that.’’
Dollar vs other currencies
The greenback stood at 119.820 yen, following Friday’s fall from 121.205. The euro climbed to $1.0833, pulling further away from a 12-year trough of $1.0457 plumbed last week.
“Our technical analyst highlights a series of bearish weekly key reversals for USD against EUR, GBP and CAD, suggesting USD will start this week on the back foot,’’ said Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
“But as we still expect a June start to the Fed’s hiking cycle and look for further policy divergence from here, this correction should be an opportunity to re-establish USD longs.’’
With the US dollar looking weaker, commodity currencies were better bid. The Australian dollar traded near 78 US cents, off a six-year trough of $0.7561 plumbed on March 11.
The New Zealand currency was flirting with 76 US cents, having bounced from a recent low of $0.7177.
ECB monetary easing
Traders expect no big moves in Asia amid a dearth of key economic data. Later, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will address a European Parliament committee, with Greece and the progress of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme sure to be high on the agenda.
Also in focus is Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ first official visit to Berlin, where he will meet with Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Greece financial rescue
At a European Union summit on Friday, Merkel had said Greece would only receive fresh funds to ease a cash crunch once its creditors approve a comprehensive list of reforms it has promised but so far failed to produce.
With officials in Brussels, Berlin and the ECB now openly acknowledging the risk that Greece could leave the euro zone, this meeting will be closely watched for signs of a breakthrough or hardening of positions.