Rupee is likely to trade in the range of 55-56 per US dollar in the coming week with no visible trigger from international and domestic fronts, according to experts.
“Rupee will be range bound and is likely to be in the range of Rs 55-56 per dollar in the coming week,” Geojit Comtrade currency strategist Hemal Doshi told PTI over the weekend.
According to Doshi, lack of any visible trigger from the domestic and international economies would keep the currency range bound even though the outcome of the meeting between the Greek prime minister and leaders of Germany and France is likely to weigh on the currency on Monday.
Eurozone, which is going through a sovereign debt crisis, has badly hit global financial system, creating instability. This, in turn, has resulted in sharp depreciation in currencies of the emerging economies due to growing risk aversion attitude of investors.
United States, the largest of world economies, is also yet to be out of woods from the 2008 sub-prime crisis and there are talks of a third quantitative easing (QE3) to boost growth.
“Though Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has hinted towards another easing measure by the Federal Reserve, the forex market has already factored in that possibility,” Doshi said.
Even a treasury official from a mid-size public sector bank said rupee was likely to be range bound in near-term as domestic economy was not providing the crucial support to the currency.
“Exports are not growing from the country. Imports are down largely due to low crude oil prices and less gold imports than any other factor. So, the improvement in balance of payment (BoP) situation is not providing any comfort. In this situation, rupee is likely to be in 55-56 range per dollar till the fundamentals improve in the domestic front,” he said.
The official, however, observed that further depreciation of rupee was a distant possibility in the near-term.