Yen in the dumps as carry trades flower

Rajalakshmi S Updated - January 11, 2018 at 02:23 PM.

yen

The Japanese yen remained on the back foot against high-yielding currencies such as the Australian dollar on Friday after dovish comments from major policymakers this week reaffirmed market expectations that interest rates will rise very slowly.

“It is broadly a US dollar-negative market as latest comments from Yellen and others suggest that interest rates will rise very gently and that is supportive for high-yielding currencies for now,” said Viraj Patel, an FX strategist at ING Bank in London.

The Aussie and sterling were among the best performing currencies, especially against the Japanese yen.

Against the yen, the Australian dollar rose 0.23 per cent and sterling climbed 0.31 per cent, with a relatively upbeat outlook from Fitch Ratings on China also supporting risk sentiment.

Major market gauges of asset volatility, such as the Merrill Lynch Option volatility estimate and VIX, drifted lower on Friday, providing a boost to carry trades.

The US currency's recent advance, notably against the yen , has stalled towards the end of this week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen curbed some of the monetary tightening expectations that had supported the greenback. That view was further reinforced by other US policymakers such as Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kalpan on Thursday, though analysts were wary of kicking the dollar lower before US inflation data.

Signs of a pick-up in US inflation could reinforce views that the Fed would hike interest rates again sooner rather than later, which would lift Treasury yields and the dollar.

However, the core consumer price index (CPI) is forecast to have risen only 1.7 per cent year-on-year in June after a similar gain in May. On a month-on-month basis, the core CPI is expected to rise 0.2 per cent after a 0.1 per cent gain the previous month.

The euro was little changed at $1.1407, unable to find much lift even as Germany's 10-year bond yield climbed back above the 0.50 per cent threshold overnight. That followed a report that the European Central Bank is likely to signal in September that its asset purchase programme will be gradually wound down next year.

Published on July 14, 2017 10:29