Indian stock markets opened on a mixed note Monday, with the Sensex starting at 85,208.76, down from its previous close of 85,571.85, while the Nifty opened at 26,061.30, lower than Friday’s close of 26,178.95. The markets are navigating a complex landscape of global economic signals and domestic factors.
Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research) at Mehta Equities Ltd, noted, “Markets are likely to witness a weak start Monday, mirroring the fall in Gift Nifty index and bearishness in other Asian indices with Japan’s Nikkei crashing nearly 5 per cent.” He added that investors are hopeful that subdued U.S. inflation data could lead to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting Indian financial markets in the medium to long term.
The global context is mixed, with U.S. markets closing unevenly on Friday after the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, which showed cooling inflation in August. Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities, commented, “US stocks gained for a third consecutive week as investors were repeatedly reassured that the economy is cooling without falling off a cliff.”
In Asia, markets are showing varied performance. Chinese and Hong Kong markets are extending their rally following relaxed rules for homebuyers in major cities and the central bank’s revision of the mortgage rate pricing mechanism. However, Japan’s Nikkei index slumped over 4 per cent due to concerns about potential interest rate normalization under the new prime minister.
On the domestic front, key economic indicators are due this week. Vikas Jain, Head of Research at Reliance Securities, stated, “Market participants will closely watch the upcoming Q2 results, set to be announced on November 5th, and focus on monthly auto sales figures.”
Sector-wise, IT stocks may see gains following Accenture’s strong Q4 results and optimistic FY25 forecast. Metal stocks could maintain momentum due to China’s stimulus measures. Sugar stocks might perform well as the government considers raising ethanol prices and the Minimum Support Price (MSP). PSU banks are expected to rally, benefiting from lower G-Sec yields.
In early trading, top gainers on the NSE included Hindalco (1.65 per cent), Tata Steel (1.27 per cent), NTPC (1.12 per cent), JSW Steel (1.04 per cent), and Titan (1.01 per cent). On the flip side, top losers were Hero Motocorp (-2.99 per cent), Coal India (-2.06 per cent), M&M (-1.98 per cent), BEL (-1.74 per cent), and Tech Mahindra (-1.55 per cent).
The commodities market is also in focus. Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities Ltd, reported, “Gold and silver prices rose for the third straight week in the global market after the U.S. Fed undertook big interest rate cuts in September.” He added that crude oil prices recovered from their lows on Friday but fell last week amid demand concerns and higher supply expectations.
Technically, Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, observed, “We believe the uptrend is likely to continue as long as the market is trading above 25,900/85,000. On the higher side, it may extend towards 26,300-26,500/86,000-86,600.”
As the market navigates these complex factors, investors are advised to watch for key economic data releases, both domestic and international, in the coming days. The interplay between global economic trends, domestic policy decisions, and sector-specific developments will likely shape market movements in the near term.