The benchmarks - the BSE Sensex and the Nifty – are likely to remain in a narrow range this week with a negative bias this week. However, stock-specific actions will continue to keep marketmen busy.
Key triggers that will influence the market direction are June inflation data, corporate results and the progress of monsoon. Besides, any adverse global cues will impact the sentiment here.
Hopes are running high on Dalal Street that the Government will kick-start key economic reforms after Presidential elections, which is scheduled on July 19.
Already there are some indications to that effect. The Government on Friday set up a committee to prepare fresh norms on the controversial GAAR tax provision. The Government move is to bring greater clarity and prepare a roadmap by September 30 for its implementation. GAAR or the General Anti Avoidance Rule, proposed in mid-March as part of the Budget - aims to check tax evaders, partly by stopping Indian companies and investors from routing investments through Mauritius or other tax havens for the sole purpose of avoiding taxes.
Marketmen also expect that the Government would announce FDI in aviation and multi-brand retail after the President election.
Market participants will continue to keep a close tab on Indian rupee movement and crude oil price along with the flow of funds by the foreign institutional investors. Last week, FIIs have bought shares worth about Rs 1,800 crore, and this week also they are expected to pump in money, but might slow down a bit.
This week companies including Axis Bank (Tuesday), Bajaj Auto (Wednesday), Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hero MotoCorp, Dr Reddy's Laboratories ( Thursday ), Reliance Industries and Asian Paints (July 20) will declare their financial performance. The results declared by the companies for June quarter so far has been on expected lines, with marginal exceptions. Infosys disappointed Street expectations while TCS and HDFC Bank were able to surprise markemen positively.
Inflation based on the wholesale price index for June 2012 will be out on July 16. Most analysts expect inflation to inch up further. Any negative surprise could trigger a fall, especially for banking stocks, as interest rate will not come down anytime soon as widely expected. The RBI is meeting on July 31 to announce its first quarter review of the Monetary Policy.