Domestic markets are expected to open positive on Monday despite weak GDP growth reported in the second quarter. As global markets are mixed, and are struggling for direction, analysts said the focus has shifted to the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement on Friday. However, unabated selling by FPIs will keep the market on the leash, they said.

India’s growth in the July-September quarter (Q2 of FY25) slowed to 5.4 per cent, down sharply from 8.1 per cent in the same period last year and 6.7 per cent in the April-June quarter (Q1 FY25). Another worry is that retail inflation has surged to 6.2 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of India is scheduled to meet from December 4 to 6. The rate-setting panel is widely expected to maintain the status-quo despite the GDP shocker..

Gift Nifty futures at 24,360 against Nifty December futures value of 24,304 indicates a positive opening.

Devang Kabra, Co-Founder manager, Wallfort PMS, said: “We have seen benchmark Nifty rising one way by around 7500 points over the past past 18 months, and the current turmoil in the markets has been due to a combination of technical correction as well as choppy fund infusion by domestic mutual funds despite extreme selling by the FIIs. Domestic fund managers are probably waiting for better valuation bargains, which could be difficult at this juncture. Hence, we may continue to see a sideways market for the next 6-12 months so that earnings catch up with valuations.”

Palka Arora Chopra, Director of Master Capital Services Ltd, said: The outlook for the market will be guided by major domestic and global economic data such as the India Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov), India Nikkei Services PMI (Nov), India Interest Rate Decision, US S&P Global Composite PMI (Nov), US Manufacturing PMI (Nov), US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov), US Services PMI (Nov), US JOLTS Job Openings (Oct), US Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov), US Initial Jobless Claims, US Unemployment Rate (Nov).

After successive months of huge selling, analysts said FPIs’ activity will be closely watched.

Dr. V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said: FIIs continued their selling spree in November, too.

A perplexing feature of the recent FII activity is their highly erratic nature. For instance, in the three days from 25th through 28th November, FIIs were buyers. But in the next two days FIIs again turned massive sellers having sold equity for ₹16,139 crores. FII selling in November is lower than that of October. In October the total FII selling through stock exchanges was ₹1,13,858 crores “In November this had come down to ₹39,315 crore. This can be partly attributed to the reduced valuations caused by the correction in the market.

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