Hammered by a slew of government and RBI measures to trim gold consumption as a tool to curb fiscal deficit, the stocks of jewellery industry have got a fresh lease of life with the RBI easing the gold import norms.
Shares of two jewellery retailers hit the upper circuit and were frozen on the NSE, indicating the investor enthusiasm the RBI order had generated towards these counters after many of which were badly mauled following steps to curb gold consumption.
Madurai-based
The other jewellery stocks to gain significantly were PC Jeweller, Titan Company, Gitanjali Gems and Rajesh Exports.
Trading volume
All these counters witnessed a huge trading volume led by Gitanjali that recorded a trading volume of 65.47 lakh shares and Titan that witnessed a volume of 50.98 lakh shares.
In its comments on impact of the RBI announcement, Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd (MOSL), Mumbai, said that the apex bank has permitted the nominated banks to offer gold metal loans (GML) to domestic jewellery manufacturers "out of the eligible domestic import quota of 80 per cent to the extent of GML outstanding in their books as on March 31, 2013''.
'Return of gold-on-lease scheme'
MOSL said from its interactions with the management of Titan, TBZ and PC Jeweller, it learnt that in effect the RBI order meant the "return of gold-on-lease scheme''.
The RBI, with a view to clamp down on gold imports, had "banned this low-cost inventory funding with natural hedge mechanism'' in August last year.
The RBI had taken other steps like banning the import of gold coins and introduction of 80:20 gold import scheme as a concerted effort to curb gold import. This had lead to the jewellery retailers like Titan and others making upfront payment for the purchase of gold without recourse to the benefit of credit facility.
MOSL said this caused stress on the balance sheets of companies and pointed out that Titan’s net cash in FY'13 balance sheet turned net debt as at the end of 2013-2014 FY.
Hedging mechanism
The industry had also to resort to separate hedging mechanisms that came at a stiff cost. Titan had got the nod recently for international hedging since the domestic contracts were "not sufficiently liquid''. After approval, its P&L had shifted to gold-on-lease regime with regard to costs (as it earned premium on currency forwards), but it still had to pay upfront for procurement of gold.
While noting that the 80:20 scheme of gold imports and regulatory uncertainty around customer advances schemes still continued, Motilal Oswal said that from Titan’s view, the ban on gold on lease "was the harshest step'' and MOSL believed that lifting the ban was "a major positive'' since it permitted Titan to manage its jewellery business "efficiently without increasing debt requirements''.
While from a P&L perspective, it would not bring about any major change, from a working capital and balance sheet perspective, it would bring "material relief''. It would also obviate the need for any separate hedging through international exchanges "as gold-on-lease itself is a natural hedging tool'', the MOSL report said.
Upgrading Titan stock to buy, MOSL report pointed out that its "cautious stance'' on Titan was because of the "harsh regulatory regime'' along with "subdued discretionary demand'' with the key factor being the disallowance of gold on lease.
But as the ban has been removed, modest sequential recovery in same store performance and no change in expansion plans, Motilal Oswal felt that "major concerns are behind'' for Titan. While waiting for greater clarity from Titan management on operational aspects, MOSL upgraded the stock to a "buy from ‘neutral'' rating, with a revised target price of Rs 360 (30x FY16E EPS). But a key risk was a sharp correction in gold price, the report said.
Increase in gold supply
Responding to queries from Business Line , Ba.Ramesh, Joint MD, Thangamayil Jewellery, said the RBI decision would contribute to increase in gold supply as more institutions are permitted to import gold under 20:80 scheme in addition to designated banks, offering some relief to the jewellery industry.
On whether it would lead to easing of gold prices, he felt that that because of the relaxation, prices would ease due to increased availability of gold. Another benefit was the drop in premium from $125 levels two weeks back to $80 levels per ounce now. He was confident that this premium would further fall to $20 level shortly.
Retail traders' margin
On whether he expected the margin for the retail traders to improve, Ramesh said the margin improvement would directly be in the form of lower procurement cost and reduction in the interest cost on borrowed funds.
He was confident of the interest rate declining from 12 per cent to 4 per cent range because of the relaxation in the metal gold loan facility.
The fall in premium will lead to a lower procurement cost. These would benefit both investors and customers more or less equally and the price reduction would also lead to higher volume of sales. On the whole, he expected the bottomline for the retailers to improve by 2-4 per cent.
On whether the market optimism would last, he said this would depend on similar positive decisions from the government. He said: "We are confident of such similar policy decisions from our new Government.''