Stock Market Live Updates July 8, 2024: Sensex, Nifty edge lower in flat trading; institutional investors await budget cues

Fitch Ratings has assigned Singapore-listed CapitaLand India Trust (CLINT) a first-time Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘BBB-’. The Outlook is Stable.

The rating is underpinned by the trust’s high-quality portfolio of Grade A offices in India, which we expect will sustain high occupancy rates and positive rental reversions amid strong demand for IT outsourcing services. This counterbalances its rising exposure to asset developments and acquisitions. We expect EBITDA net leverage to peak at 8.5x in 2025 before reducing to around 7.0x thereafter.

Our rating case has not factored in any equity raising, as this will be subject to market conditions. Our expected peak EBITDA net leverage is above the level for CLINT’s current rating, but we acknowledge that it has a number of levers and leverage could be lower than our forecast. In particular, CLINT has an established record of prudently managing development risks, as well as strong credit- and equity-market access that has allowed it to maintain a healthy capital structure with gearing (debt/total assets) of below 40%

SBI Q1:

Flls STAKE INCREASED TO 11.16% FROM 11.09%

DIIS STAKE REDUCED TO 23.61% FROM 23.96%

LIC INCREASED STAKE TO 9.06% FROM 8.93%

* MGL - Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 1957 from Rs 1670

* IGL - Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 598 from Rs 519

* Gujarat Gas – Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 740 from Rs 676

* Expect CNG total cost of ownership (TCO) to be 29%-32% < petrol, 28%- 30% < EV

* Bike to add 5%-13% to CNG volume by 2030

* Initiate Add with target price of Rs 570 

* Niche positioning with Niche positioning with a rich partnerships, & strong client relationships

* Recent transformation in leadership and growth strategies flow in - benefits begin to Flow in 

* Sales growth and margins likely to improve starting CY25

* NHPC - Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 124.

* Inox Wind - Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 176.

* Kalpataru Projects - Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 1473.

* KEC International - Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 1002.

* JSW Energy - Initiate Hold with TP of Rs 687.

* Power demand to remain strong over FY24- FY32.

* Onus back on thermal to meet rising demand.

* Wind and Transmission space to witness fresh capex on RES play.

* Despite these developments, country could witness peak deficit.

Price band Changes from 10% to 5%: Century Extrusions, Cochin Shipyard, Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers. 

Ex/record Dividend: Computer Age Management Services. 

Ex/record AGM: Nucleus Software Exports. 

Moved in short-term Framework: GM Breweries.

Initiate Add with TP of Rs 570

Niche positioning with a rich service portfolio, robust tech partnerships, & strong client relationships

Recent transformation in leadership and growth strategies – benefits begin to flow in.

Telecom – Swarnendu Bhushan, Co-Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

Q1FY25 Revenue and EBITDA of telecom companies in our coverage universe (Jio (unrated) + Bharti) is expected to increase by 2%QoQ and 3% QoQ to Rs647.6bn and Rs337.7bn respectively led by healthy subscriber addition of 11.5mn, besides building gradual increase in ARPU growth (~1%QoQ). We maintain our positive stance on the telecom sector given the much needed tariff hikes undertaken by the company. Maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating on Bharti with SOTP based TP of Rs1,618 as we incorporate minor changes in our assumptions.

§ Bharti Airtel: For Q1, we have factored subscriber growth of 4mn (Q4FY24: 6.7 mn) to 356mn coupled with ARPU flat at Rs 210. Airtel Africa business is expected to remain muted QoQ, and we have factored in a 4% QoQ growth rate for the enterprise business. For DTH we have factored a growth of 4% QoQ.

§ Accordingly, Bharti’s Q1FY25E consolidated Revenue/EBITDA is expected to increase to Rs381.6bn (+1.5% QoQ)/Rs196.5 bn (+1.5% QoQ).

§ Bharti is also targeting ~Rs 500bn market opportunity with its Enterprise offerings including CPaaS, cloud, cybersecurity and data centers as company expects 80% of corporates will put up 5G within next 3 years.

§ JIO: We expect JIO to report Revenue/EBITDA of Rs266bn (2.5% QoQ)/Rs 141bn (3.7% QoQ). We have also factored in ARPU of Rs183 (flat QoQ) and subscriber addition of ~8mn in Q1 to 489.3mn

Lead futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) declined sharply between May 29 and June 14. But then, the downtrend lost momentum, and the contract started to trace a sideways trend.

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Electric vehicle registrations in India witnessed a 16 per cent growth in H1 in 2024 year-on-year.

According to Vahan data, which tracks vehicle registrations in the country, 8,42,396 electric vehicles were registered between January and June 2024, whereas 7,23,492 electric vehicles were registered during the same period in 2023.

Further, retail sales of passenger electric vehicles in June reported a year-on-year decline of 1.3 per cent while the month-on-month share declined from 2.5 per cent in May to 2.4 per cent in June.

Bank Nifty opened today’s session with a gap-down at 52,533 versus Friday’s close of 52,660. But the index recouped some of its losses and is now hovering around 52,560, down 0.2 per cent.

Nifty 50, the Indian benchmark index, opened today’s session almost flat at 24,329 versus Friday’s close of 24,324. It is now hovering around 24,290, down about 0.1 per cent in early trade.

Tata Motors and Hindustan Unilever, up 1.8 and 1.3 per cent, respectively, are the top gainers in Nifty 50. On the other hand, Titan Company and Divi’s Laboratories are the top losers by depreciating 4 and 1.8 per cent, respectively.

In an X post the online brokerage said

Some of our users were facing issues seeing the latest status of some orders while the orders themselves were successfully placed. This issue is now fixed. 

The status for new orders is updating fine now. We’re working on updating the status for older orders. Apologies for the inconvenience caused.

JPMorgan and SSL Research are optimistic about Tata Motors’ Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) division, citing robust performance in 1QFY25. JLR’s wholesales grew 5% YoY to 97,755 units, with retail volumes up 9% YoY at 111,180 units. The surge in higher-margin products like Range Rover and Defender contributed significantly, with the new Range Rover EV accumulating over 39,000 bookings. JPMorgan maintains an overweight rating with a target price of Rs 1115, emphasizing strong growth in retail and wholesales excluding the China JV. SSL Research highlights the continued strong demand from North America and the UK, underlining positive short-term prospects for Tata Motors.

Tata Motors Ltd - 1QFY25 JLR Volume Updates

▶️ JLR Wholesales were up 5% YoY at 97,755 units while retail volumes were up 9% YoY at 111,180 units.

⏩ The mix of higher margin products such as Range Rover and Defender increased to 68%/59% of the total wholesales/retails.

⏩ The demand environment continues to remain strong for JLR led by North America and UK. The waiting list for the new Range Rover EV continues to grow with over 39,000 bookings.

Positive in short term

NHPC - Buy, TP Rs124

Inox Wind - Buy, TP Rs176 

Kalpataru Power - BUy, TP Rs Rs1473 

KEC International - Buy, TP Rs1002 

JSW Energy - Hold, TP Rs 687

Macquarie on Tata Motors

O-P, TP Rs 1171 

JLR: Product mix surprises +vely; bodes well for margins 

JPM on Tata Motors

OW, TP Rs 1115 

(JLR) 1QFY25 wholesales (ex-China JV) at 97.8K (+5% YoY) 

Overall retails (111K) grew 9% YoY & ex-China JV retail growth was 15% YoY

Neutral, TP Rs 230 

Board approved appointment of Ratan Kumar Kesh as Interim MD&CEO (joined as COO in March’23) 

He takes charge on 10 July for a period of 3 months or until a new MD&CEO is appointed, whichever is earlier

EW, TP Rs 3526 

Top-line Growth Miss, Low-single-digit Buyer Growth 

Reported top-line growth below est, mainly led by 8% growth in jewellery biz (we’d expected +20%) 

Given this backdrop, 1Q jewellery margins are likely to disappoint vs. 11% est

Buy, TP Rs 3700 

1QFY25 revenue update was disappointing 

Jewellery slowdown much sharper than expected 

Titan’s key competitor did much better in 1Q, which is a cause for concern 

Titan’s jewellery margins also likely to be weak

O-P, TP Rs 4045 

Standalone sales growth of 9% YoY, below estimate of 11%. 

Jewellery growth of 9% also missed forecast of 11% 

Believe any correction in rare soft results should be seen as an opportunity to accumulate 

Downgrade to Neutral, TP Rs 3450

After 8 quarters of being in-line or better, jewellery revenue growth at 9% in Q1FY25 was below already lowered expectations 

Lower FY25-27E EPS by 5-6%

Neutral Call, Target Rs 6,055 

Co Reports Billing Growth Of 11% YoY In Q1FY25, With Improvement In Naukri Billing 

9% YoY Growth In Naukri’s Billing Is The Highest Growth In 5 Quarters 

Improvement In Naukri Billing On A Low Base (Q1FY24 Was Down 4% YoY) 

Underlying Hiring Trends Remain Weak 

YoY Improvement In Billing Suggests A Potential Pick Up In Hiring

Overweight Call, Target Rs 3,540 

It’s All About Gross Refining Margin In Upcoming Earnings 

View Co As A Play On Monetisation 4.0 Cycle 

Refining Upcycle View Remains Intact Despite Decline Last Quarter 

Business Cycles Across Verticals For Rest Of 2024- New Energy, Refining, Chemicals 

Business Cycles Across Verticals For Rest Of 2024- Telecom, Imply Re-rating 

Net Debt And Slower Capex Intensity Should Support Valuation In FY25

Equal-Weight Call, Target Rs 280 

Domestic Loans Declined By 2% QoQ In Q1 Biz Update (Vs 4.2% QoQ) 

Domestic Loans Declined Mainly Due To Non-retail Loans, Down 3.5% Vs +4% 

Domestic Retail Was Healthy, At 3.6% Vs 5.5% 

Overseas Book Was Down 1% Vs +2.7% Last Quarter 

Domestic Deposits Declined, Down 2% Vs +5.7% QoQ 

Domestic LDR Was Steady QoQ

Equal-Weight Call, Target Rs 566 

Co’s Q1 Performance Was Broadly In-line With Our Estimates 

Co’s Demand Trends Continued Gradual Improvement 

Management Expects Revenue Growth To Improve, Led By Domestic Volume Growth 

Revenue Growth To Improve Led By Higher Realisations

Sell Call, Target Rs 6,250 

Co Launches 125cc CNG Motorcycle At Rs 95-1,10,000 

Continue To Believe Future Is EV 

CNG Motorcycles Won’t Impact The Electrification Pace Of The Market 

100- 110cc Motorcycle & Entry Level 125cc Motorcycles Will Be Impacted Over Medium-term 

Analysis Indicate Hero Has A Market Share Of 66% In This Segment 

1)U.S. job openings rose slightly to 8.1 million in May despite the impact of higher interest rates intended to cool the labor market. Vacancies rose from a revised 7.9 million in April, the first reading below 8 million since February 2021, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

2)The ADP Employment report showed that US private businesses added 150,000 workers to their payrolls in June, the lowest increase in five months. This figure fell short of the expected 160,000 and was below the downwardly revised 157,000 in May.

3)The Labor Department reported Wednesday (3rd July) that jobless claims for the week ending June 29 rose by 4,000 to 238,000 from 234,000 the previous week. The data was issued one day earlier than its regular Thursday release due to the July Fourth holiday.

4)The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose 206,000 in June, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on 5th July. This reading followed the 218,000 increase (revised from 272,000) recorded in May and came in above the market expectation of 190,000.

5)The US Unemployment Rate edged higher to 4.1% from 4%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.6% from 62.5%. Finally, wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.9% on a yearly basis from 4.1%, matching the market expectation.

6)The US economy showed signs of strengthening in June according to S&P Global PMI data. The Composite PMI, which tracks activity in both manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 54.8 in June, up from 54.5 in May. The growth was driven by the services sector, where PMI climbed to 55.3 from 54.8, while manufacturing PMI moderated slightly to 51.7 from 51.3.

7)The US services sector contracted in June as indicated by the ISM Services PMI falling to 48.8, down from 53.8 in May. This marks the first time in 17 months that the index has dipped below the 50 mark, which separates expansion from contraction.

8)US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI edged up to 51.6 in June from 51.2 in May, indicating modest growth, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.5 from 48.7 in May, suggesting contraction in the sector.

9)The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April, revised. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion less than April exports.

10)The service sector in the Eurozone grew at a slightly slower pace in June. The HCOB services PMI dipped to 52.8 from 53.2 in May. Overall business activity also eased, with the composite PMI falling to 50.9 from 52.2.

11)Prices charged by producers in the Eurozone continued to fall in May. The producer prices index dropped 4.2% compared to May 2023, after a steeper decline of 5.7% in April.

12)Inflation in the Eurozone edged down slightly in June. The annual rate dipped to 2.5% compared to 2.6% in May. However, underlying inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, remained steady at 2.9%.

13)Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area remained unchanged at 6.40 percent in May. The Unemployment Rate in Euro Area averaged 9.30 percent from 1995 until 2024, reaching an all-time high of 12.20 percent in January of 2013 and a record low of 6.40 percent in April of 2024.

14)In June, the Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.8, down from 47.3 in May, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector.

15)The U.K.’s opposition Labour Party won a huge parliamentary majority in the country’s general election, unseating the incumbent Conservatives after 14 years. Early on Friday morning, Labour passed the threshold needed to govern alone as outgoing PM Rishi Sunak conceded defeat. Sunak later exited Downing Street and resigned as the Conservative Party leader. Keir Starmer, leader of the center-left Labour, now becomes the country’s next prime minister after declaring victory in the early hours.

16)The UK service sector grew at a slower pace in June. The S&P Global Services PMI dipped to 52.1 from 52.9 in May. Overall business activity also eased slightly, with the composite PMI falling to 52.3 from 53.0.

17)The UK construction industry’s growth slowed down in June. The S&P Global Construction PMI dipped to 52.2, down from 54.7 in May.

18)In June, the UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dipped to 50.9, down from a 22-month high of 51.2 in May. This indicates a slight moderation growth in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month.

19)Japan’s service sector contracted in June. The Jibun Bank Services PMI dropped to 49.4, down from 53.8 in May. This indicates a decline in business activity. Overall economic growth also slowed, with the Composite PMI falling to 49.7 from 52.0.

20)Japan’s economy shrank at a steeper-than-expected rate of 2.9% in the first three months of 2024. This is lower than the initial estimate of a 1.8% decline and comes after a previously reported growth of 0.1% in the last quarter of 2023, which was also revised downward.

21)China’s economic growth showed signs of slowing in June. The Caixin China General Services PMI, which tracks activity in the service sector, fell to 51.2 from 54.0 in May. Overall business activity, reflected in the General Composite PMI, also dipped to 52.8 from 54.1.

1)India’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by $1.71 billion to reach $652 billion as of June 28, according to data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The previous week saw an increase in reserves, by $816 million to $653.7 billion as of June 21.

2)India’s HSBC composite PMI edged up to 60.9 in June, reversing a five-month slide and reaching a level higher than May’s 60.5. The services PMI also showed improvement, rising to 60.5 from 60.2 in May.

3)The HSBC final India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 58.3 in June, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 58.5, but up from 57.5 in May. Strong demand is crucial for growth in Asia’s third-largest economy, which is currently the fastest-growing major economy

4)Markets regulator Sebi drastically cut the face value of debt securities to Rs 10,000 from Rs 1 lakh at present to boost participation of retail investors in the corporate bond market. Market participants are of the view that lower ticket size of debt securities may encourage more non-institutional investors to participate in the corporate bond market which in turn may also enhance liquidity.

5)India’s goods and services tax (GST) collections rose 7.7 percent to Rs 1.74 lakh crore in June as compared to Rs 1.73 lakh crore in May. The numbers were a tad higher than the previous month but lower than the GST mop-up in April, when they peaked at Rs 2.1 lakh crore.

6)As per paragraph 13(ii) of the Government of India Notification, the interest rate on FRSB 2020 (T) bonds resets every six months starting from January 1, 2021. The rate is set at 35 basis points above the prevailing National Savings Certificate (NSC) rate. Following this rule, the coupon rate for FRSB 2020 (T) from July 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024, and payable on January 1, 2025, remains at 8.05% (7.70% + 0.35%), unchanged from the previous six months. 

7)The Centre raised windfall tax on petroleum crude to 6,000 rupees ($72) per metric ton from 3,250 rupees, effective from July 2, a notification showed. The windfall tax is revised every two weeks and as per the notification it remained unchanged at zero for diesel and aviation turbine fuel.

8)In the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24), GST collections soared to a historic approximately 20.2 trillion rupees. Despite growth maintaining a pace above 10 percent, it has decelerated compared to previous rates, according to data from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy and government releases.

9)The government will present the Budget for 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) in Lok Sabha on Jul 23, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju said. In view of the general election, the Centre presented an interim Budget for the current fiscal year in February.

10)Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) has received approval to raise up to Rs 50,000 crore through bonds. The approval was given after a meeting by the authority on Friday (5th July). The MMRDA, under the leadership of metropolitan commissioner Dr Sanjay Mukherjee, will utilize bonds as a fund-raising mechanism. Earlier, the MMRDA relied solely on borrowings and land monetization. A senior official revealed that the initial amount to be raised will be based on immediate requirements, potentially starting with Rs 10,000 crore and gradually increasing to meet the maximum requirement.

•Fixed Income

The New 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.10 2034 traded between 6.98% - 7.02% during this week.

The Old 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.18 2033 traded between 7.02% - 7.06% during this week, tracking movement involved around US Treasury Yields, US Job data, and crude oil prices.

•Auction Highlights

RBI conducted the Auction for G-sec, SDL, and T-Bill for the aggregated amount of INR 28,000 Crore, INR 14,100 (14,092.875) Crore, and INR 20,000 Crore, respectively. 

G-sec Cutoff: 

7.02% GS 2027: 100.15/6.9577%\u0009

7.23% GS 2039: 101.72/7.0391%

7.30% GS 2053: 102.64/7.0837%

SDL Cutoff:

09 Years: PN 7.38%, AP 7.37%

10 Years: MG 7.39%, PN 7.38%, TN 7.35%

12 Years: AP 7.37%, MN 7.39%

13 Years: TS 7.36%

17 Years: AP 7.36%

18 Years: TS 7.37%

21 Years: AP 7.36%

22 Years: JK 7.36%, 7.42%

24 Years: AP 7.36%

T-Bill Cutoff:

091 Days: INR 8000 Crore 98.3375/6.7810%

182 Days: INR 6000 Crore 96.6739/6.9000%

364 Days: INR 6000 Crore 93.5185/6.9498%\u0009

•Commodities:

1)Brent Crude Oil: $84.85-$87.89 (Per barrel)

2)Gold: INR 7,238-INR 7,309 24 Carat (1 Gram)

3)Silver: INR 90,000-INR 93,200 (1 KG)

•US Treasury Yield:

1)US 2 Years Treasury: 4.59%-4.79%

2)US 5 Years Treasury: 4.21%-4.45%

3)US 10 Years Treasury: 4.26%-4.49%

•Corporate Bond Highlights

AAA 3 Years Bond traded between 7.68%-7.72% this week.

AAA 5 Years Bond traded between 7.65%-7.78% this week.

AAA 10 Years Bond traded between 7.55%-7.59% this week.

•New Issuances:

NATIONAL BANK FOR FINANCING INFRASTRUCTURE AND DEVELOPMENT\u0009

Ratings: AAA/Stable by ICRA & CRISIL; Issue Size: 2000 + 3000 Crs; Maturity Date: 04/07/2034; Allocated 5000 Crs at 7.43%

CHOLAMANDALAM INVESTMENT AND FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED

Ratings: AA+/Positive by ICRA & INDIA; Issue Size: 500 + 1000 Crs; Maturity Date: 02/07/2029. 

Allocated 500 Crs at 8.64%

BANK OF MAHARASHTRA TIER II

Ratings: AA+ by CARE & ICRA; Issue Size: 250 + 750 Crs; Maturity Date: 04/07/2034. 

Allocated 1000 Crs at 7.89%

PNB HOUSING FINANCE LIMITED

Ratings: AA+/Stable by CRISIL & CARE; Issue Size: 100 + 100 Crs; Maturity Date: 04/07/2029. 

Allocated 200 Crs at 8.33%

ICICI BANK LIMITED 

Ratings: AAA/Stable by ICRA & CARE; Issue Size: 1000 + 2000 Crs; Maturity Date: 03/07/2034. 

Allocated 4848 Crs at 7.53%

SUNDARAM FINANCE LIMITED

Ratings: AAA/Stable by ICRA & CRSIL; Issue Size: 100 + 200 Crs; Maturity Date: 05/07/2034.

Allocated 300 Crs at 8.23%

TATA CAPITAL HOUSING FINANCE LTD

Ratings: AAA/Stable by ICRA & CRSIL; Issue Size: 500 + 500 Crs; Maturity Date: 07/07/2034.

Allocated 580 Crs at 100

Dhabriya Polywood: Investor Ashish Kacholia added 26,167 shares or 0.24% stake in the company during Q1. Now shareholding stands at 6.67% in the company.

The Indian stock market benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50, are set for a subdued start on Monday amid mixed global signals. Nifty’s critical support levels are at 24,230 and 24,180, pivotal for maintaining bullish momentum. Options data highlights concentration at 24,200 for calls and 24,800 for puts this week.

Bank Nifty is in consolidation mode, encountering resistance at 53,000 - 53,200 with active call writing, while support holds steady at 52,300 - 52,100. As the Budget approaches and quarterly results loom, investor sentiment remains cautious.

Ahead of the Budget on 23rd July, the market is expected to trade sideways, advocating a strategy of ‘buying on dips’.

Nifty continued its bullish momentum from Friday, reaching its highest closing level. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit record highs. Nifty bulls remain strong despite overbought conditions, with the Economic Survey for 2023-24 and the Union Budget presentation by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on July 23 in focus. This week’s key events include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on July 9, US CPI data on July 11, TCS’s Q1 earnings kick off, and India’s CPI & IIP data on July 12. In Friday’s trade, FIIs bought Rs. 1241 crores while DIIs sold Rs. 1651 crores. Nifty is expected to trade between 23500-25000, with significant resistance at 25000.

“Positive news flows can impart resilience to the market in the near-term. The bullish undertone in the US market will be supported by the latest jobs data for June which has come weak, but better-than-expected at 2,06,000 jobs. US unemployment climbing to 4.1% indicates an economy cooling slowly. Disinflation and rising unemployment creates the ideal macro backdrop that can facilitate a rate cut by the Fed in September itself. This is positive for global equity markets.

The market will respond to the Q1 results which will start flowing from this week onwards. Financials have the potential to move up further in response to the expected good results. IT is showing signs of improvement. Autos will continue to show improved results. The FMCG segment which has been languishing with low volume growth is showing signs of mild recovery. Watch out for this segment.”

Big Tech Earnings season kicks off this week 

TCS July 11 Thursday

HCLTech July 12 Friday

The big question : Are we at the end of the tech earning downgrade cycle ? 

Union budget on the 23rd of July 

Larger RBI dividend & strong tax collections could allow finance ministry to balance fiscal and growth 

Monsoon progress is important to track 

According to the IMD, After over a month, India turned into rainfall surplus on Sunday, receiving rainfall 1% above normal

Only six states now face a rainfall deficit

MACROTECH DEVELOPERS

good growth in pre-sales in Q1 FY25

Pre sales up 20% YoY

added three projects in MMR and Pune

ANGEL ONE

Strong growth in client acquisition continues 

client acquisition rise 7% Month over month at 9.4 lakh clients

Client base is now at 2.4 crore clients 

market share at 19%

NAVA Ltd: Company’s unit, Maamba Collieries, received two 4-year large-scale exploration licenses for lithium and other minerals in Zambia’s Southern Province, covering 8200 hectares.

Ex-Dividend 9 July 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last date for Cum-Dividend Today 

Atishay Ltd 

Dividend Per Share Rs.1 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 142.15 

Baid Finserv Ltd 

Dividend Per Share Rs.0.1 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 16.95 

Dcm Shriram Limited 

Dividend Per Share Rs.2.6 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 1016.15 

Deep Industries Ltd 

Dividend Per Share Rs.2.44 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 289.1 

Ingersoll-Rand (India) Ltd. 

Dividend Per Share Rs.20 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 4553.8 

J.K.Cement Ltd. 

Special Dividend Per Share Rs.15 

Dividend Per Share Rs.5 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 4216.95 

Jsw Steel Ltd. 

Dividend Per Share Rs.7.3 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 954.15 

Persistent Systems Ltd. 

Dividend Per Share Rs.10 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 4773.95 

Polycab India Ltd 

Dividend Per Share Rs.30 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 6629.15 

Grindwell Norton Ltd. 

Dividend Per Share Rs.17 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 2858.25

Anil Agarwal, Chairman of Vedanta Group, today met with Bhajan Lal Sharma, Chief Minister of Rajasthan, to discuss the state’s outlook and plans for the natural resources sector – metals, minerals, and oil & gas - which is crucial for creating large-scale employment opportunities and contributing to the state’s economic growth, as well as nation building.

Vedanta has made investments in excess of INR 1.50 Lakh Crore in Rajasthan to date. Two of its flagship businesses Hindustan Zinc Limited – the World’s second largest integrated Zinc producer and 3rd largest producer of Silver, and Cairn Oil & Gas, India’s largest private oil producer, have their largest operations in the state. In FY 24, Vedanta’s contribution to the State Exchequer was INR 10,000 Cr.

Reinforcing the Vedanta Group’s steadfast commitment to the State, Agarwal, said, “Rajasthan is a national natural resources growth engine with the potential to power an Atmanirbhar Bharat across the minerals, metals, and oil & gas sectors. Both, the state of Rajasthan and Vedanta, are open to further collaboration aimed at fuelling India’s ambition of becoming self-reliant in natural resources and thus a global manufacturing hub.

July starts with healthy rainfall: Cumulative rainfall as on 6-Jul was 1% above the long-term average (LTA), while weekly rainfall (as on 3-Jul) was 32% above the LTA. Spatial divergence has reduced with most of the country receiving healthy rains during the week. North and West India (3%), Central India (-6%), East and North East India (0%), and the southern peninsula (13%) have now all had normal rains so far. With June having ended in deficit, it is imperative that July sees healthy rainfall; the month has begun on a promising note.

■ Sowing status better than last year: While sowing was delayed, it has now picked up and is better than last year. Total area under sowing (24.1mn ha), as on 28-Jun, is sharply higher (33% YoY) than last year. This is mainly due to accelerated sowing of pulses (2.3mn ha; 181% YoY) and oilseeds (4.3mn ha; 155% YoY). Rice sowing area is the same as last year thus far (2.3mn ha; 0% YoY), whereas sugarcane (5.7mn ha; 3% YoY) is better. Among non-food crops, cotton sowing (5.9mn ha; 63% YoY) is much higher. Overall area under sowing is at 22% of normal area sown, compared with 18.6% at the same point in 2023. July is extremely important in this regard with nearly 80% of sowing activity completed by the end of the month.

■ Retail food prices stay higher due to persistent heatwave conditions: Average retail prices for cereals (0.2%), vegetables (8.2%), and oils & fats (0.1%) were higher on a weekly basis, whereas pulses (0.0%) were flat and milk prices declined (-0.5%). On an annual basis as well, avg. prices for cereals (9.4%), pulses (14.0%), vegetables (39.3%), and milk (1.9%) were higher, whereas those for oils & fats (-4.3%) were lower. Delayed monsoon progress has led to persisting heatwave conditions, leading to lower supply of vegetables in particular, along with pulses and cereals. Vegetable prices may decline from August if the monsoon picks up; however, prices of milk and pulses will stay high due to tight supplies. Cereals could also see elevated prices with the government announcing a 5.4% increase in paddy MSP for the current Kharif marketing season.

■ Reservoir levels in deficit and below last year: The overall basin-wise reservoir levels are in deficit and below last year’s level as well. As of 3-Jul, the overall level is ~14% below the LTA and 21% below last year’s level. Most major river basins are in deficit – Ganga (North and East), Godavari (West and South), Indus (North), Kaveri (South), Mahanadi (Central and East), and Krishna (West and South). Only Narmada (Central and West) is in surplus.

Rupee is likely to open around 83.49 and trade a 83.35-83.57 range intraday with sideways price action: Rupee ended flat at 83.49 on Friday: IFA Global

Jefferies on Bajaj Auto: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 11630/Sh (Positive) 

Nomura on Bajaj Auto: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 10207/Sh (Positive) 

GS on Bajaj Auto: Maintain Neutral on Company, raise target price at Rs 9970/Sh (Positive) 

MS on Reliance Ind: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 3570/Sh (Positive) 

JP Morgan on Marico: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 660/Sh (Positive) 

Nuvama on MGL: Maintain Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 1957/Sh (Positive) 

Nuvama on IGL: Maintain Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 598/Sh (Positive) 

Nuvama on GUJGAS: Maintain Buy on Company, raise target price at Rs 740/Sh (Positive) 

Investec on NHPC: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 124/Sh (Positive) 

Investec on Inox Wind: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 176/Sh (Positive) 

Investec on Kalpataru: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 1473/Sh (Positive) 

Investec on KEC: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 1002/Sh (Positive) 

Investec on JSW Energy: Initiate Hold on Company, target price at Rs 687/Sh (Positive) 

Equirus on R Systems: Initiate Add on Company, target price at Rs 570/Sh (Positive) 

Equirus on Stylam: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 2489/Sh (Positive) 

Nomura on Bank Baroda: Maintain Buy on Bank, target price at Rs 320/Sh (Positive) 

GS on Bank Baroda: Maintain Buy on Bank, target price at Rs 300/Sh (Positive) 

MS on Bank Baroda: Maintain Equal weight on Bank, target price at Rs 280/Sh (Neutral) 

UBS on Bandhan Bank: Maintain Neutral on Bank, target price at Rs 230/Sh (Neutral) 

Nomura on Bajaj Auto: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 6250/Sh (Neutral) 

MS on Marico: Maintain Equal weight on Company, target price at Rs 566/Sh (Neutral) 

MS on Titan: Maintain Equal weight on Company, target price at Rs 3526/Sh (Neutral) 

MS on Dabur: Maintain Equal weight on Company, target price at Rs 500/Sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on Dabur: Maintain Neutral on Company, target price at Rs 580/Sh (Neutral) 

GS on Titan: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 3700/Sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on Info Edge: Maintain Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 6900/Sh (Neutral) 

Nomura on Indusind Bank: Maintain Neutral on Bank, target price at Rs 1650/Sh (Neutral) 

Citi on Indusind Bank: Maintain Buy on Bank, target price at Rs 2010/Sh (Neutral) 

JP Morgan on Titan: Downgrade to Neutral on Company, cut target price at Rs 3450/Sh (Negative)

Dabur remains one of our preferred picks in the Consumer Goods sector, given its diversified portfolio and better execution. The company’s thrust on rural remains firm, with distribution expansion continuing to see better growth. Dabur, per its strategy, has been expanding TAM across brands with category extensions that are backed well by distribution and marketing. We maintain BUY on Dabur, with Jun-25E TP of Rs700/sh, on 46x P/E. We see sales/earnings CAGR of 10%/15% over FY24-27E, respectively. Q1 commentary looks muted: topline is expected to grow 6%, with mid-single-digit volume growth in domestic operations. Gross margin is expected to expand by 90bps YoY (to 47.5%). EBITDA expansion is likely to be limited at 20bps YoY (to 19.5%), given sustained thrust on building back A&P (expect 18% rise in spends).

Dabur India on Friday said it expects its consolidated revenue to register “mid-to-high single digit” growth during Q1 FY25. The company said it also witnessed a pick-up in rural growth with the quarter witnessing a “sequential improvement” in demand trends.

“India business is expected to record mid-single digit volume growth. In India business, HPC & Healthcare segment is expected to grow in high-single digits. Travel and out of home consumption got impacted due to scorching summers, which had an impact on our beverage segment although the food (culinary) category showed good momentum,” the FMCG major said in a BSE filing.

We met with the top management team of ITC, represented by Supratim Dutta – Executive Director & CFO, to discuss the industry outlook, growth prospects for its business verticals, profitability outlook, and other focus areas. Here are the key takeaways from the discussion:

The company is looking to grow beyond macro recovery by implementing new initiatives and expanding its product portfolio. Cigarette business has recovered well post Covid (now at 97-98 per cent of peak cigarette volume in FY13). Steady macro and government initiatives (stable taxes, control over illegal cigarette, etc.) are expected to further help ITC to sustain volume growth.

Indigo Paints Ltd (IPL) ranks as India’s fifth-largest decorative paint manufacturer by revenue in FY24. The Company specializes in a diverse range of paints and allied products, including emulsions, enamels, wood coatings, distempers, primers, putties, and cement paints. IPL operates five manufacturing units with a total capacity of nearly 160,000 KLPA for liquid paints and around 138,000 MTPA for putty and cement paint.

To moderate the overwhelming euphoria in the SME market, both the regulator and exchanges have decided to implement concrete measures. With most companies’ stocks delivering over 200 per cent returns on listing day, the National Stock Exchange announced on Thursday a cap on maximum listing gains at 90 per cent over the IPO price.

“To standardise the opening price discovery/equilibrium price across exchanges during special pre-open session for initial public offer (IPO) for the SME platform, it has been decided to put an overall cap of up to 90 per cent over the issue price for SME IPOs,” NSE said in a statement.

Ahead of Modi 3.0 Government’s full budget on July 23, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) continued to show strong buying interest in Indian equities with net inflows of ₹7,962 crore (near $1 billion) in the first week of July 2024, data with depositories showed. 

This was in addition to June 2024 inflows, when FPIs—after remaining net sellers in April and May— had made net investments of ₹26,565 crore in the Indian equities market. 

Domestic markets are expected to open flat on Monday despite ruling at peak levels. According to analysts, though valuation is a concern for domestic markets, participants, especially institutions, are still in hold mode. According to them, the upcoming Budget and Q1 results of India Inc. will anchor market movement.

Gift Nifty at 24,390 signals 24,379, indicating a flattish opening for Nifty. Ajit Mishra – SVP of Research, Religare Broking, said: “Looking forward, market direction largely will be influenced by upcoming earnings reports and discussions on the Union Budget. Global market trends, particularly the robust performance of US markets, will also be closely watched.”

#Nifty continues to move up. There is room for the #Nifty50 to go up further from here. However, as we said last week, crucial resistance is also coming up which can halt the current rally in the #nifty50index. We expect a corrective fall in the #Nifty after some more rise from here.

Buzzing stocks: LIC, JM Financial, Infosys, Apollo Hospitals, Bandhan Bank, GMR Power, Coffee Day, PNB, HG Infra, Zaggle, Delhivery, Union Bank, BoB, UGRO Capital, Indsil Hydro, Welspun Corp, Quick Heal, Signature Global, HEG, Genesys Intel, Fermenta Bio, EFC

We zoom in on the prospects of Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL), as also the prospects of two other stocks — Union Bank of India, Jain Irrigation Systems 

Here is what the charts say about the shares of GMR Airports Infrastructure, Sun Pharmaceuticals and Tata Consumer Products 

The short-term outlook is bullish for HFCL. The stock surged about 15 per cent last week and closed on a strong note. The price action since the end of May this year indicates a bull channel. Strong support is in the ₹120-118 region.

Here’s an interesting stock idea: The stock idea that we have for you today is HFCL. The stock has surged about 15 per cent last week. The share price has been moving inside a bull channel and there is room for the stock to move up further within the channel.

* ABFRL

* BANDHANBANK

* GNFC

* HINDCOPPER

* INDIACEM

* PEL

SHALBY

Q1FY25 EARNING CALENDAR 09.07.2024

DELTACORP, GMBREW

Mphasis (₹2,628.9) announced an interim dividend of ₹55 per equity share of face value ₹10 for the financial year 2023-24. This will also lead to necessary adjustments in the futures and options (F&O) contracts on this stock on the record date.

The company has decided July 10, 2024, as the record/effective date. On this day, the stock price and all derivatives contracts on Mphasis will be adjusted appropriately.

Precious metals had a glittering week. Gold appreciated 2.8 per cent, whereas silver rose 7.1 per cent to end the week at $2,392 and $31.2 per ounce respectively.

The positive trend was seen in the domestic market too. MCX gold futures (₹73,051 per 10 gram) rallied 2.1 per cent, whereas MCX silver futures (₹93,554 per kg) gained 4.5 per cent.

Crude oil retains the upward bias in trend. Nevertheless, the Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ended last week almost flat at $86.5 per barrel. But the crude oil futures on the MCX was up 2.5 per cent as it closed the week at ₹6,977 a barrel.

Traders can buy TCS call options; stay out of Coforge futures

Nifty 50 (24,324) and Bank Nifty (52,660) stretched the upswing last week and posted a gain of 1.3 per cent and 0.6 per cent respectively. The uptrend remains valid for both indices and the derivatives data point to further rally from here. Here’s an analysis.

Nifty futures (July) appreciated 1 per cent over the past week and closed at 24,379. This happened due to long build-up, which is indicated by the increase in the cumulative Open Interest (OI) of Nifty futures. It went up to 157.7 lakh contracts on July 5 against 155.9 lakh contracts on June 28.

The long-term outlook for Nifty Financial Services (Fin Nifty) (23,641.75) will be positive as long as it stays above 18,890. If the index manages to hold on to current rally, it can register a new peak around 28,500.

Fin Nifty finds an immediate support at 22,837 and the major one at 20,867. However, a close below 18,890 could weaken the index to 15,050. We expect the index to witness higher volatility in the short term.

The real estate segment has taken off sharply in the post-Covid period, and especially over the past couple of years. The return-to-office mandates of companies looking at hybrid working styles and the demand for larger living spaces have seen commercial and residential realty thriving.

While housing and office space demand are robust in metros, there is considerable action even in other larger cities. Gujarat, as a State with strong infrastructure presence in cities such as Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar, has seen a strong uptick in realty demand in recent years.

The dollar index remained under pressure all through last week. The index failed to breach 106 decisively and fell sharply. This fall in the index was much in line with our expectation. On Friday, the jobs data release had added more pressure on the greenback as well as the Treasury yields. 

The Centre’s target of achieving nearly 500 GW of installed renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2030 necessitates significant investments in the transmission space. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) estimates that ₹2.2-lakh crore will be required for inter-state transmission system (ISTS) from FY24 to FY28. Additionally, the CEA projects a need for around 47 GW of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) by 2031-32 to ensure grid stability as RE’s share increases.

Nifty 50 and Sensex continue to move up well. Both the indices have risen breaking above their key near-term resistance. The indices were up over a per cent each last week. The outlook is bullish, and the Sensex and Nifty can rise further in the short term. However, as mentioned last week, crucial resistances are coming up. The current rally can halt around that resistance. We expect the Sensex and Nifty to run into a correction after some more rise from here. 

The first half of 2024 has been an eventful phase for IPOs in the mainboard segment. With 38 companies going public so far in 2024 and more IPOs projected to be launched in the second half of the year, including the mega IPOs of Hyundai India and Ola Electric, the going appears good. So far, IPOs in H1 market have delivered a mix of stellar performances, significant declines, and steady gains, indicating a robust and active market environment. 

Core sectors producing the key starting materials for economic activity are critical indicators of an economy’s glide path. The amount of coal, oil, steel, cement, power and others produced in a country is an indication of the downstream demand and bears significantly high multiplier effect as well.

For quite a while there has been a narrative that the private sector must pick the capex baton from the Central government to take the economy forward. How ready is it?

To get a perspective, we analysed listed stocks in the core sectors. By considering the listed stocks in the core segment — fertilizers, cement, crude oil and natural gas, power, refineries, steel and coal — we can, to an extent, gauge the strength of the capex and productivity growth in the economy. Apart from analysing the aggregate numbers, which can smooth over several outliers, we have also picked the top three companies in the most visible sectors — power, steel and cement — to assess how each company is positioned on the growth curve. Here are our key takeaways.

Eight of the top-10 most valued firms together added ₹1,83,290.36 crore in market valuation last week, with IT majors Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys emerging as the biggest gainers, in line with a rally in equities.

Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 963.87 points, or 1.21 per cent.

Reliance Industries remained the most valued firm followed by TCS, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, State Bank of India, Infosys, LIC, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC.

The market valuation of TCS jumped ₹38,894.44 crore to ₹14,51,739.53 crore, becoming the biggest gainer among the top-10 firms.

FMCG industry witnessed some improvement in volume growth and continued gradual recovery in rural demand trends in the June quarter. Companies with summer-centric portfolios are likely to report stronger growth in volume in Q1 FY24 due to intense heatwave across the country. 

Overall analysts expect the key listed companies in the industry to broadly post low-to-mid single-digit volume growth in the June quarter.

Dabur India, in its quarterly update ahead of the release of Q1FY25 results, said that the June quarter saw sequential improvement in demand with rural growth picking up. It added that domestic business is expected to record “mid-single digit” volume growth.

Marico also noted in quarterly update that during the June quarter, its domestic business posted a modest uptick in underlying volume growth on a sequential basis.

Recent directives by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on enhanced disclosure for companies filing for initial public offerings (IPO) has put law firms and investment banks in a quandary as they feel that some of the disclosures are not relevant to the business of the companies and there is little clarity in them, prolonging the entire process.

“It is important to strike a balance such that information which is material for investors to make an investment decision does not get obscured in this process,” said Abhimanyu Bhattacharya, Partner, Khaitan & Co.

In the past week, the benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty gained around 1.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively. Sensex hit the 80,000 mark for the first time ever and Nifty hit an all-time high of 24,401.

All sectoral indices ended in the green, except for BSE Consumer Durables. The Nifty India Defence Index jumped 13.7 per cent as bullish sentiment continued in the sector. Shares of Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Cochin Shipyard were up 32.7 per cent and 28.1 per cent respectively, although there were no fundamental news to substantiate the spike. .

During Q1FY25, Dabur witnessed improved demand on sequential basis, with rural growth picking up. Going ahead, management expects improvement to accelerate backed by favourable monsoon and continued government focus on macro-economic growth.

▪️On consolidated basis, Dabur is expected to report mid to high-single digit revenue growth in Q1FY25. Furthermore, India business is expected to record mid-single digit volume growth.

▪️HPC & Healthcare segment is anticipated to deliver growth in high-single digit. Further, food (culinary) category showed good momentum. However, beverage segment was impacted due to sluggish travel and out of home consumption due to harsh summer.

▪️Badshah Masala continued to perform well and is expected to report strong volume led growth in high teens.

▪️In Q1FY25, International business is expected to deliver strong growth in CC terms. However, significant currency depreciation in Turkey and Egypt continued to affect translated growth.

▪️Commodity prices remained stable throughout the quarter. In Q1FY25, GM is expected to improve on account of roll over price increases and cost saving initiatives. However, as benefits of GM expansion were directed towards A&P spends, EBITDA margins are expected report improvement on YoY basis and are likely to grow slightly ahead of the revenue. 

DART View: 

On consolidated basis, we have assumed ~7% revenue growth in line with the company guidance. Subsequently, margins are expected to improve on YoY basis to 19.6%. At CMP, the stock is trading at 43x FY26E EPS. We currently have Accumulate rating on the stock.

“Integra Essentia Limited” (Transferee Company) shall issue and allot 48 (Forty- Eight) Equity Shares of Face Value of INR 1/- (Rupees One Each) each to Equity Shareholders of “G G Engineering Limited” (Transferor Company) for every 100 

(One Hundred) Equity Share of Face Value of INR 1/- (Rupees One Each) each held by them in the Transferor Company.

DIIs STAKE REDUCED TO 0.92 % FROM 1.92 %

•\u0009BoB advances portfolio grew by -2% QoQ and 8% YoY, with retail book growth at 3.5% QoQ/21% YoY. 

•\u0009Overall deposits grew by -1.6% QoQ/~9% YoY 

DART View: Seeing very divergent growth trends across banks this quarter, presumably driven by tighter liquidity resulting in shredding of low yielding assets. Muted growth led by lower corporate share is not necessarily a negative. Stock trading at 1.1x FY26E ABV, we currently have an Accumulate

Master Components Ltd received a purchase order worth ₹2,38,25,000 from a US-based company in the field of childcare.

Canarys Automations Ltd secured a ₹25.65 crore contract from Jalkal Vibhag, Nagar Nigam Gorakhpur. 

Kody Technolab Ltd has secured an export order valued at approximately ₹70.67 crores. The order includes Dasher (Serving Robot), Odigo (Advertising Robot), and Vulcan (Cleaning Robot), with deliveries planned over the next 5 months. 

Urban Enviro Waste Management Ltd received a work order worth ₹4,25,23,029.64 from the Additional Medical Superintendent Office, North Western Railway, Jodhpur, Rajasthan 

SAR Televenture Ltd has announced a Composite Equity Issue worth ₹450 crore, combining a Rights Issue and a Further Public Offer (FPO). The Rights Issue, set at ₹300 crore, offers 1.5 crore fully paid-up equity shares at ₹200 each, with one Rights share for every existing share held as of July 9, 2024. The FPO, valued at ₹150 crore, has a price band of ₹200-210 per share. The proceeds will be used for capital expenditure, including setting up a Fiber-to-the-Home network and additional telecom towers, along with augmenting working capital for future growth 

Jay Jalaram Technologies Ltd has secured a significant distribution agreement with Honortech Universal Pvt Ltd, granting it the rights to distribute the “Honor” brand across seven key Indian states 

Power Grid to consider raising fund via borrowing 

- borrow upto 16000 cr in FY25 

- enhance the current borrowing limits from existing Rs. 12,000 Crore to Rs. 15,000 crore 

Geojit Financial Services to consider fund raising on 12th July 24 

THERMAX LTD recieve an order worth Rs. 513 Crore from Jindal Energy Botswana Pty Ltd. 

Bajaj Auto Ltd launches a Gamechanger: Bajaj Freedom! The World’s First CNG Motorcycle.

Provisional Cash

FII/FPI: NET BUY: +1241.33 

(13354.3 - 12112.97) 

DII: NET SELL: -1651.36 

(12695.07 - 14346.43)