Stock Market Live Updates: Index Outlook: Indian stocks face volatile week amid FII selling and geopolitical concerns

Aerospace Industries: Co has taken possession of 180,000 sq. ft. R&D centre and smart solar panel manufacturing facility in Chakan, Pune to drive future mobility and clean energy.

Gensol Engineering: Secures AED 81.6 Mn (INR 186 Crore) Contract For 23 Mwp Rooftop Solar Project In Dubai (Supportive for stock prices)

JP Morgan on Larsen: Initiate Overweight on Company, target price at Rs 4360/Sh (Positive)

HSBC on BPCL: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 460/Sh (Positive)

HSBC on HPCL: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 480/Sh (Positive)

HSBC on IOCL: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 200/Sh (Positive)

Emkay on Vedanta: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 600/Sh (Positive)

Emkay on NALCO: Initiate Buy on Company, target price at Rs 275/Sh (Positive)

ICICI on Jana SFB: Initiate Add on Company, target price at Rs 630/Sh (Positive)

MS on Life Insurance stocks: APE for private insurers grew at 28% on a base of 12% (Positive)

Nomura on Life Insurance stocks: Nomura says growth of public insurance players outpaced overall industry in Sep 2024 (Positive)

Kotak Securities on Pharma Sector: Indian Pharma Market posted growth of 8% YoY in Q2, driven by slower growth in acute therapies (Neutral)

Emkay on Hindalco: Initiate Reduce on Company, target price at Rs 650/Sh (Neutral)

Citi on Just Dial: Maintain Sell on Company, raise target price at Rs 1075/Sh (Neutral)

MOSL on DMart: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 5300/Sh (Neutral)

Bernstein on DMart: Maintain Outperform on Company, target price at Rs 5800/Sh (Neutral)

Nuvama on DMart: Maintain Buy on Company, target price at Rs 5040/Sh (Neutral)

Citi on DMart: Maintain Sell on Company, target price at Rs 3500/Sh (Negative)

JP Morgan on DMart: Downgrade to Underweight on Company, target price at Rs 3702/Sh (Negative)

Domestic markets are expected to open weakly in the new week, with little cues from global equities as the Japanese and Thai markets are closed today. Gift Nifty at 25,080 signals a marginal gain for Nifty. However, analysts expect the market to remain volatile due to unabated selling by foreign portfolio investors. The focus has now shifted to India Inc.’s financial performance for the September quarter. Reliance Industries, HCL Tech, and AngelOne are among the companies that will declare their quarterly results today.

Buzzing stocks; Wipro, Kinetic Engineering, Hindustan Aeronautics, Adani Energy Solutions, DMart, Lodha, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals, Indo Count Industries, Ashoka Buildcon, Godrej Properties, Signature Global, Ajmera Realty, Hi-Tech Pipes, Alok Industries, AngelOne, Caprihans India, Ease My Trip, Gopal Snacks, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, SWSolar

Asian equities are trading with mixed note on lack of major fresh cues while Japan markets to remain shut on Holiday. U.S. stock index futures fell slightly in evening deals on Sunday as investors hunkered down before the third-quarter earnings season picked this week. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed at record highs, with the big boosts from financial stocks after banks reported strong quarterly results while the latest inflation data fuelled expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in November. 

Dow Future (US): 42867, +3.0 points/ +0.01% 

Nasdaq Future (US): 20232, -39.0 points/ -0.19% 

FTSE Future (UK): 8287, -5.0 points/ -0.07% 

DAX Future (Germany): 19498, +8.0 points/ +0.04% 

Taiex Future (Taiwan): 22905, -6.0 points/ -1.03% 

Kospi (South Korea): 2610, +13.0 points/ +0.50% 

Hang Seng Future (Hong Kong): 21134, -136.0 points/ -0.64% 

Gift Nifty: (India) 25087, +37.0 points/ +0.15% (Adjusted)

INDIA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (YOY) (AUG) ACTUAL: -0.1% VS 4.8% PREVIOUS; EST 1.0%

INDIA CUMULATIVE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (AUG) ACTUAL: 4.20% VS 5.20% PREVIOUS

INDIA MANUFACTURING OUTPUT (MOM) (AUG) ACTUAL: 1.0% VS 4.6% PREVIOUS

👉🏽SMIFS report predicts, “Hyundai Motors India is set to capitalize on the projected 4.5%-6.5% CAGR in private vehicle sales, expected to reach 5.2-5.7 million units by FY29, with an average vehicle price of INR 7 lakh.

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👉🏽Marwadi – Subscribe - Marwadi report says, “HMIL is available at reasonable valuation as compared to peers. 

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Sula Vineyards Reports Q2 & H1 FY25 Sales Update 

CMP: ₹442 | BUY | Target Price ₹675 | Mkt Cap: ₹37.3bn | Upside: 53%

Sula Vineyards announced its highest-ever Q2 Own Brands revenue for Q2 FY25, recording ₹1272 mn, up 0.3% YoY. The company’s Elite & Premium portfolio continues to drive growth, with this segment contributing to 80% of Own Brands sales in Q2 FY25, compared to 74% in the same quarter last year. Sula’s stronghold in several markets, including Telangana, saw significant double-digit growth, contributing positively to the overall performance.

The company’s total Net Revenue (including other income) for Q2 FY25 came in at ₹1418 mn, reflecting a 1.3% decline YoY, largely due to a slowdown in discretionary spending amid broader macroeconomic concerns. Challenges in key markets, including policy ambiguity in Karnataka and issues with the Delhi Excise portal, also impacted growth in the final days of the quarter. However, these setbacks are expected to be temporary and will likely resolve in the coming months.

Sula’s Wine Tourism business showed resilience, recording its highest-ever second quarter revenues at ₹122 mn, up 1.3% YoY, with a 9% increase in spend per guest and improved occupancy rates at 74% versus 66% last year, despite lower footfalls.

As Sula gears up for the critical Q3 period, it looks forward to SulaFest, which promises to be a major event at its Nashik vineyards, driving further brand engagement and growth.

View 

We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of ₹675. We will revisit our earnings estimate post Q2 results 

Shree capital services Ltd (Shree cement promoter) bought 3.21 lk shares in Diffusion Engineering

Cinco stock vision llp owned by Hitesh Doshi bought 2.05 lk shares

GSFC: Company has commissioned manufacturing plant at Fertilizernagar, Vadodara for production of hydroxylamine Sulphate crystal (Positive) 

Wipro: Company to consider Bonus Issue of shares. Meeting to be conducted on October 17, 2024. (Positive) 

Sanofi Consumer: Company has entered into negotiations with CD&R for the potential sale of a 50% controlling stake in Opella, its consumer healthcare business (Positive) 

Hathway Cable: Net Profit at Rs 25.8 cr vs Rs 20.1 cr , Revenue at Rs 513 vs Rs 481 cr. (YoY). (Positive) 

Ashoka Buildcon: Gets LoAs for projects worth ₹2,310 crore from the Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation. (Positive) 

JSW Energy: Company subsidiary signed an Energy Storage Facility Agreement with Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution Company for 1,500 MW/12,000 MWh pumped hydro energy storage. (Positive) 

Indo Count; Company acquires 100% stake in Modern Home Textiles, Inc for $11.7 m. (Positive) 

PNC Infratech: Company secures Rs 2,039.61 crore contract from CIDCO for infrastructure development (Positive) 

Britannia: Company plans to hike prices by 7-8%, says MD (Positive) 

*Sudarshan Chem: Execution of definitive agreement to acquire Global Pigment Business of Heubach Group of Germany (Positive) 

Hitech Pipes: Company announced successful closure of INR 5,000 Million QIP with oversubscription by Marquee Institutional Investors (Positive) 

Adani Energy Solutions: Signs agreement with KETRACO for development of major transmission lines and substations in Kenya. (Positive) 

Valor Estate: Company has today received a Letter of Acceptance for construction, completion and handing over of about 13,374 affordable housing tenements under the Project-Affected Persons Scheme (Positive) 

PNG Jewelers: Company has opened a new store at Ambegaon Budruk, Pune. (Positive) 

Godrej Ind: CRISIL has upgraded rating for the NCDs to AA+ (Positive) 

Epack Durable: Company expects upward revision in its revenue guidance for the financial year 2024–25. (Positive) 

Realty Stocks: Residential sales in the 9MCY2024 reached a record high with 229,908 units sold. (Positive) 

HAL: Department of Public Enterprises: Finance Minister has approved the upgradation of Hindustan Aeronautics to the 14th Maharatna CPSE (Positive) 

Krystal Integrated: Company has received a work order from Directorate of Medical Education and Research, Maharashtra for providing Facility Management Services with yearly value of Rs. 55 Crore (Positive) 

Sanghvi Movers: Board of Directors granted their in-principal approval for incorporation of a Wholly Owned Subsidiary Company in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. (Positive) 

HMA Agro: Company unit located at Talsapur Khurd, District Aligarh, and has been temporarily stopped following a routine inspection conducted by local authorities. (Neutral) 

Ambuja Cements: GQG increases stake in co from 1.35% to 2.05% in Q2 (Neutral) 

LT Foods: Company gets notice under FSS act to appeal report declaring sample sub-standard (Neutral) 

Accelya Solutions: Company gets an administrative warning letter from SEBI, administrative warning for significant delay in Updation to the policy for determination of materiality of the Company. (Neutral) 

DCB Bank: Company has agreed to make additional investment by acquiring and/or subscribing to 3,21,420 equity shares of Saksham gram credit Pvt Ltd (Neutral) 

3i Infotech: Company announced the resignation of Sanjay Rawa, CFO, and effective October 31, 2024. (Neutral) 

RIIL: Net Profit at Rs 3.1 cr vs Rs 3.2 cr , Revenue at Rs 12.2 vs Rs 14.4 cr. (YoY). (Neutral) 

Sula Vineyards: Net revenue down 1.3% at ₹141.8 cr vs ₹143.7 cr, Own brands revenue up 0.3% at ₹127.2 cr vs ₹126.8 cr (YoY) (Neutral) 

Network 18: Net Revenue at ₹1,825 Cr Vs ₹1,866 Cr, Consolidated Operating EBITDA Loss At ₹178 Cr Vs EBITDA Loss Of ₹218 Cr (YoY) (Neutral) 

DMart: Revenue at Rs 14444 cr versus poll Rs 14206.0 cr. Net profit seen at Rs 660

cr vs poll of Rs 770 cr. (Neutral) 

Brightcom Group: Company to apply for suspension revocation after releasing shareholding, AGM schedule (Neutral) 

Adani Ports: Company has completed the acquisition of 95% stake in Gopalpur Port Limited. (Neutral) 

Navkar Corp: Company appoints new directors, pursuant to the transfer of ownership of the equity shares held by the promoter & promoter group of the Company to JSW Port Logistics Private Limited (Neutral) 

Oberoi Realty: A board meeting will be held on October 16, 2024, to consider fundraising. (Neutral) 

Macrotech: Net debt rises 14% to Rs 4,920 crore during the second quarter of the current fiscal. (Neutral) 

Bajaj Housing Finance: One-month lock-in period for shareholders ends on Monday, October 14. (Neutral) 

Glenmark: Company is recalling two products in the U.S. due to manufacturing issues. (Neutral) 

Ola Cabs: Central Consumer Protection Authority has directed Ola Cabs to allow consumers to choose their preferred method of refund (Neutral) 

Page Industries: Board to consider second interim dividend on November 7 (Neutral) 

Plastiblends: Net Profit at Rs 6.3 cr vs Rs 9.5 cr, Revenue at Rs 185 vs Rs 210 cr. (YoY). (Negative) 

Indoco Remedies: Company informs receipt of regulatory status from U.S. food and drug administration for facilities located at Goa plant. (Negative) 

Vedanta: Company cancels its record date of Dividend (Negative) 

Camlin Fine: India Ratings & Research has downgraded ratings for Term loan and fund based limits (Negative) 

LT Foods: Received a notice from the Department of Food Safety and Quality after a sample collected by the Food Safety Officer was declared substandard (Negative)

* CHAMBLFERT

* GNFC

* GRANULES

* HINDCOPPER

* IDFCFIRSTB

* MANAPPURAM

* PNB

* RBLBANK

* SAIL

ALOKINDS, GOPAL, HCLTECH, ORIENTHOT, RAJOOENG, RELIANCE, SWSOLAR

HCLTECH 

* Revenue expected at Rs 28558 crore versus Rs 28057 crore

* EBIT expected to be seen at Rs 5080 crore versus Rs 4795 crore

* EBIT margin expected to be seen at 17.78 % versus 17.09% 

* Net profit expected to be seen at Rs 4019 crore versus Rs 4257 crore

RELIANCE

* Revenue expected at Rs 234682 crore versus Rs 231886 crore

* EBITDA expected to be seen at Rs 39809 crore versus Rs 40968 crore

* EBITDA margin expected to be seen at 16.96% versus 17.66% 

* Net profit expected to be seen at Rs 15974 crore versus Rs 17394 crore

Q2FY25 EARNING CALENDAR 15.10.2024 

DBCORP, HDFCAMC, HDFCLIFE, NEWGEN,PVRINOX, RALLIS, SGFIN, STYLAMIND.

HDFCAMC 

* Total Income expected at Rs 971 crore versus Rs 765 crore

* Net profit expected to be seen at Rs 595 crore versus Rs 436 crore

HDFCLIFE 

* APE expected at Rs 3720 crore versus Rs 3040 crore

* EBIT expected to be seen at Rs 622 crore versus Rs 416 crore

* EBIT margin expected to be seen at 3.62% versus 1.80% 

PVRINOX

* Revenue expected at Rs 1571 crore versus Rs 1999 crore

* EBITDA expected to be seen at Rs 455 crore versus Rs 706 crore

* EBITDA margin expected to be seen at 16.96% versus 17.66% 

* Net profit expected to be seen at Rs -4 crore versus Rs 166 crore

Krystal Secures Two Major Contracts from Maharashtra’s Directorate of Medical Education and Research

Krystal Integrated Services Ltd. has received two significant contracts from the Directorate of Medical Education and Research, Maharashtra. The combined value of these contracts is Rs. 800 mn annually.

Contract 1: Facility Management Services 

Krystal will provide facility management services to multiple medical colleges and hospitals across Maharashtra. This contract is valued at Rs. 550mn per year, with a three-year tenure.

Contract 2: Staffing and Payroll Management 

Krystal has also secured a Rs. 250mn annual contract for staffing and payroll management services (skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled staff) for hospitals and medical colleges in Maharashtra. This contract spans five years.

Our View 

These orders mark a crucial milestone for Krystal as it further strengthens its foothold in the healthcare sector. Government contracts account for 77% of Krystal’s revenue, providing a stable source of income for 2-3 years. The recent contracts with the Directorate of Medical Education and Research in Maharashtra add to Krystal’s portfolio of government contracts, showcasing its ability to win new government orders while retaining existing ones. This highlights Krystal’s operational efficiency and positions it well for continued growth.

We maintain a Buy rating on Krystal, valuing the stock at 16x Q2FY27E EPS of Rs. 76.8, resulting in a target price of Rs. 1,230.

Weekly snapshot: India’s equity benchmarks closed in the marginal red zone as selling from foreign institutions resisting market sentiments. 

Indices Performance: Nifty 50 has closed with a minor loss of 0.20 percent while Nifty Bank performed inline and closed with a loss of 0.56 percent. 

Weekly Fund-Flow Activities: During the week, FIIs have sold equities worth of Rs 27675.0 cr while DIIs have bought equities of Rs 31363.6 cr in cash segment. 

Macro Data: Monetary policy from European Central Bank, Chinese macro data, Indian CPI Inflation and U.S. retail sales data are the scheduled macro events for upcoming week. 

Weekly Outlook: Global market volatility and the macro announcements expected to remain on the focus during the upcoming week. Also, the announcements of quarterly earnings from major corporates, both domestic and global, to remain on the market focus.

(Rs. In Crs.)

Turnover: (NSE + BSE)

Cash Volume: 81980.59 + 5681.55 Total: 87662.14

F&O Volume: 392761.94 + 33655741.24 Total: 34048503.18

Provisional Cash

FII/FPI: NET SELL: -4162.66 

(6219.76 - 10382.42) 

DII: NET BUY: +3730.87 

(11906.51 - 8175.64)

U.S. Bank Holiday (Financial Markets to remain open for Trading)

Japan @ Market Holiday

TENT China Trade Balance (Expected: 91.5B Previous: 91.0B)

12.00 India WPI y/y (Expected: 1.90% versus Previous: 1.31%)

17.30 India CPI y/y (Expected: 5.00% versus Previous: 3.65%)

1)The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September 17-18 meeting revealed a strong consensus among officials in favor of initiating a more accommodative monetary policy with a significant half-point rate cut. While this move aimed to align monetary policy more closely with current inflation and labor market data, some members expressed support for a smaller quarter-point cut. Importantly, the minutes emphasized that this rate cut should not be interpreted as an indication of a more pessimistic economic outlook. Future policy adjustments will depend on incoming economic data, and if conditions unfold as expected, a gradual shift toward a more neutral policy stance may be appropriate.

2)The U.S. goods and services trade deficit decreased from $78.9 billion in July (revised) to $70.4 billion in August, as exports increased, and imports decreased. The goods deficit decreased $8.4 billion to $94.9 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $24.4 billion. Exports of goods and services increased by $5.3 billion, or 2.0%, to $271.8 billion. Meanwhile, imports dropped 0.9% to $342.2 billion

3)The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 2.4% over the prior year in September, a slight deceleration compared to August’s 2.5% annual gain in prices. The yearly increase, which was the lowest annual headline reading since Feb. 2021, came in hotter than economist expectations of a 2.3% annual increase. The core inflation rose marginally to 3.3% from 3.2%

4)Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States increased to 315.30 points in September from 314.80 points in August of 2024. Consumer Price Index CPI in the United States averaged 124.80 points from 1950 until 2024, reaching an all-time high of 315.30 points in September of 2024 and a record low of 23.50 points in February of 1950. 

5)Unemployment claims in the US rose sharply last week, driven by the impact of Hurricane Helene and furloughs linked to Boeing amid ongoing strikes, according to the latest Labor Department data. Initial jobless claims climbed by 33,000 to a seasonally adjusted total of 258,000 for the week ending October 5th. 

6)The US Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.1% from 4.2%, while the Labor Force Participation was unchanged at 62.7%. Finally, the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, rose to 4% from 3.9% in August.

7)The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in the US rose 1.8% on a yearly basis in September, the data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. This reading followed the 1.9% increase recorded in August and came in above the market expectation of 1.6%. The annual core PPI rose 2.8% in the same period, surpassing the analysts’ estimate of 2.7%. On a monthly basis, the PPI was unchanged, while the core PPI was up 0.2%.

8)The Canadian labour market exceeded many economists’ expectations in September, adding more than twice as many jobs as the previous month while unemployment ticked lower — but digging deeper into the numbers shows employment remains a concern, analysts say. Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 47,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined for the first time since January to 6.5 per cent.

9)The UK’s real GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.2 percent month-on-month (MoM) in August, following a period of stagnation with no growth recorded in both July and June. Year-on-year (YoY), the GDP growth for August stood at 1 percent. For the three months leading up to August, real GDP increased by an estimated 0.2 percent quarter-on-quarter and by 0.8 percent YoY. Additionally, production output saw a rise of 0.5 percent MoM in August; however, it did not show any growth over the three-month period leading up to August.

10)The UK’s balance of trade in August 2024 was a deficit of £10 billion for the three months ending in August, compared to the three months ending in May. This was because of an increase in imports of goods. Total imports increased by £6.7 billion over this period, and exports rose by £3.7 billion. When removing the effect of inflation, the total trade deficit, excluding precious metals, widened by £4.1 billion to £17.4 billion.

11)Eurozone retail sales grew 0.2% in August, rebounding from July’s flat reading, while Germany’s factory orders plunged 5.8%, marking their worst decline since January.

12)The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points to 4.75% during its October 2024 policy meeting, marking the second consecutive rate cut and aligning with market expectations.

13)Japan’s wholesale price inflation edged up in September, due mainly to higher prices of everyday food items such as rice. The Bank of Japan said the preliminary Producer Price Index was up 2.8 percent from a year earlier, a slightly greater increase than the 2.6 percent rise marked in August.

14)Japan’s current account surplus increased to JPY 3,803.6 billion in August 2024 from JPY 2,293.8 billion in the same month a year earlier, above market expectations for a gain of JPY 2,921.9 billion. Simultaneously, the deficit of goods account dropped sharply to JPY 377.9 billion from JPY 755.2 billion, as exports (6.2%) grew faster than imports (1.3%).

15)Japan Coincident Index fell to 113.5 in August from 117.3 in July, and the leading economic index decreased to 106.7 from a marginally revised 109.3. Japan Household spending declined by 1.9% in August compared to 0.1% rise in the previous month.

16)In September, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed annual growth of 0.4%, which was below the estimated 0.7% and down from the previous figure of 0.6%. On a monthly basis, CPI remained flat at 0.0%, missing expectations of 0.4% and down from August’s 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated continued deflation, with an annual decline of 2.8%, deeper than the expected drop of 2.6% and a sharper fall compared to the previous -1.8%. On a monthly basis, PPI fell by 0.6%, showing a slight improvement from the prior month’s decline of 0.7%.

1)The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which included new external members, held its meeting on October 7th, 8th, and 9th, 2024. After reviewing the current macroeconomic and financial landscape, the MPC voted by a majority of 5 out of 6 to keep the policy repo rate steady at 6.50%. As a result, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains unchanged at 6.25%, and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stay at 6.75%. In a significant move, the MPC unanimously shifted its stance to ‘neutral,’ signaling a clear focus on ensuring inflation aligns with the set target while continuing to support economic growth.

2)The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), has projected real GDP growth for 2024-25 at 7.2 percent. Growth for Q2 is estimated at 7.0 percent, Q3 at 7.4 percent, and Q4 at 7.4 percent. Additionally, real GDP growth for Q1 of 2025-26 is projected at 7.3 percent.

3)In its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has forecasted CPI inflation for 2024-25 to be 4.5 percent overall. For the individual quarters, inflation is expected to be 4.1 percent in Q2, rise to 4.8 percent in Q3, and then ease to 4.2 percent in Q4. Looking ahead, the RBI has projected CPI inflation for Q1 of 2025-26 at 4.3 percent.

4)The additional measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting are as follows:

Responsible Lending Conduct:

RBI extended the prohibition on foreclosure charges/pre-payment penalties for floating rate term loans to include Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs). A draft circular will be issued for public consultation.

Discussion Paper for UCBs:

A discussion paper on capital-raising avenues for Urban Co-operative Banks (UCBs) will be issued to offer greater flexibility and seek feedback from stakeholders.

Climate Risk Information System (RB-CRIS):

RBI will create the Reserve Bank – Climate Risk Information System (RB-CRIS) to address data gaps and help regulated entities with robust climate risk assessments.

UPI Limits Enhancement:

UPI123Pay per-transaction limit increased from ₹5,000 to ₹10,000.

UPI Lite wallet limit raised from ₹2,000 to ₹5,000, and per-transaction limit from ₹500 to ₹1,000.

Beneficiary Account Name Look-up Facility:

RBI plans to introduce the name verification facility for RTGS and NEFT, allowing remitters to verify account holder names before transfers, reducing the chances of wrong credits and fraud.

These measures are aimed at enhancing consumer protection, strengthening financial systems, and fostering innovation in digital payments.

5)FTSE Russell has announced the inclusion of Indian government bonds in the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index (EMGBI) starting from September 2025, with the move to add to the hefty foreign inflows that domestic debt markets have received over the past year. The Market Accessibility Level for India will be reclassified from 0 to 1. FTSE’s decision comes after two other major global bond index providers – JP Morgan and Bloomberg – have included Indian sovereign debt in their indices.

6)After hitting a record high last week, India’s forex reserves contracted by $3.7 billion to $701.18 billion as of October 4, data shared by the Reserve Bank of India showed on Friday. According to the Weekly Statistical Supplement released by the RBI, Foreign currency assets (FCAs) dipped by $3.51 billion to $612.6 billion. Expressed in dollar terms, the FCAs include the effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US units like the euro, pound and yen held in the foreign exchange reserves.

7)The World Bank has raised India’s economic growth forecast to 7% for the fiscal year ending in March 2025. This is up from April’s 6.6% estimate. The growth is attributed to increased agricultural output and private consumption. The central bank maintained inflation forecasts and highlighted a resilient domestic growth outlook driven by private consumption and investment.

8)India’s industrial production data for August reveals a downturn, with year-on-year growth recorded at -0.1%, significantly lower than the previous figure of 4.8% and falling short of the estimated 1.0%. Cumulatively, industrial production for the same month stands at 4.20%, a decrease from the prior rate of 5.20%. Additionally, manufacturing output month-on-month showed a modest growth of 1.0%, down from 4.6% in the previous month. Overall, these figures indicate a decline across key industrial metrics.

9)The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for August stood at 145.6, dropping slightly from 145.8 in the same month last year. 

10)India’s net direct tax collections rose 18.35 per cent year-on-year to Rs 11.25 lakh crore, government data showed on Friday (11 October). The collection Included Corporate tax of Rs 4.94 lakh crore and personal income tax of Rs 5.98 lakh crore. 

11)India’s gross direct tax collection was at Rs 13.57 lakh crore, including Rs 6.11 lakh crore in corporate tax and Rs 7.13 lakh crore in personal income tax.

12)Securities Transaction Tax (STT) stood at Rs 30,630 crore, while other taxes (including equalisation levy and gift tax) earned Rs 2,150 crore. Refunds worth around Rs 2.31 lakh crore were issued between 1 April and 10 October, a growth of 46 per cent. The corporate tax refund stood at over Rs 1.16 lakh crore and that for personal income tax was more than Rs 1.14 lakh crore.

13)Life insurers in New Delhi reported a 14% increase in new business premiums in September, collecting Rs 35,020 crore compared to Rs 30,716 crore last year. The first half of FY25 saw a 19% growth in premiums. LIC led with a 25% rise, while the private sector grew 12%.

14)Non-life insurers have reported a 6.53 per cent year-on-year (YoY) drop in premiums in September, owing to underperformance of state-owned general insurers, slowdown in auto sales impacting motor insurance segment, and weak performance in the crop insurance segment. Data released by the General Insurance Council said that in September, non-life insurers, which include general insurers, standalone health insurers, specialised PSU insurers, got Rs 27,551 crore as premiums.

15)The mutual fund data for September 2024, released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), indicated a mixed trend across debt funds, with a significant outflow of ₹1,13,833.95 crore. Liquid funds experienced a sharp reversal, recording an outflow of ₹72,666 crore, compared to an inflow of ₹13,594.9 crore in August. Meanwhile, hybrid funds saw inflows of ₹4,901 crore in September, a decline from ₹10,005.3 crore the previous month.

16)In September 2024, mutual fund data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) revealed mixed trends across equity funds. Net equity inflows stood at ₹34,393 crore, marking a 10% decline from ₹38,212.4 crore in August, although this maintained positive inflows for the 43rd consecutive month. Large-cap funds saw a drop in inflows to ₹1,769 crore, down from ₹2,636 crore in August, while small-cap funds recorded ₹3,071 crore in inflows, slightly lower than ₹3,209.3 crore last month. Mid-cap funds experienced a modest increase with ₹3,130 crore compared to ₹3,054.7 crore in August. However, Equity Linked Savings Scheme (ELSS) funds witnessed an outflow of ₹349 crore, worsening from the ₹205.2 crore outflow in August.

17)Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) in India achieved a new milestone in September 2024. For the first time, monthly SIP contributions crossed the ₹24,000 crore mark. The inflows reached an all-time high of ₹24,508.73 crore. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) also revealed that the number of new SIP registrations in September surged to 66,38,857. The total number of active SIP accounts also hit a record, standing at 9.87 crore, up from 9.61 crore in August. The assets under management (AUM) of SIPs soared to a new high, reaching ₹13.81 lakh crore in September, compared to ₹13.38 lakh crore in the previous month. The overall AUM of the mutual fund industry touched ₹67.09 lakh crore, setting a fresh record.

18)The gap between credit and deposit growth in the banking system narrowed to an 18-month low of 176 basis points in September, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows. This could be due to some pullback by banks on loan growth and their push to raise deposits, analysts said. According to the RBI data, deposit growth remained at 11.34 percent and bank credit grew 13.1 percent as on September 20.

19)Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have, for the first time, amassed holdings in Indian securities exceeding the $1 trillion mark, a milestone underscoring the country’s growing allure among global investors. As of the end of September 2024, FPIs’ assets under custody in India reached $1.1 trillion (Rs 84.4 trillion), with $930 billion (Rs 78 trillion) invested in equities and the remainder allocated to debt and hybrid instruments, according to data from National Securities Depository Limited.

20)Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth Rs 58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market. 

21)The World Bank raised its growth forecast for South Asia to 6.4% in 2024 from an earlier estimate of 6.0%, citing the strength of domestic demand in India and quicker recoveries in crisis-hit countries such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

•Fixed Income

The New 10-Year Benchmark GOI 6.79 2034 traded between 6.70% - 6.81% during this week.

The Old 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.10 2034 traded between 6.73% - 6.85% during this week, tracking movement involved around Crude Oil, US Treasury Yields, Inclusion of IGB in FTSE Rusell Bond Index and RBI Policy meeting.

•Auction Highlights

RBI conducted the Auction for G-sec, SDL, and T-bills for the aggregated amount of INR 29,000 Crore, INR 18,700 and INR 19,000 Crore, respectively. 

G-sec Cutoff: 

7.04% GS 2029: 101.34/6.6961%\u0009\u0009\u0009\u0009

7.34% GS 2064: 104.77/6.9830%\u0009\u0009

SDL Cutoff: 

05 Years: UK 7.05%

08 Years: KR 7.10%, MH 7.10%\u0009

09 Years: BH 7.14%, KR 7.12%

10 Years: AS 7.13%, SK 7.14%, TN 7.12%

11 Years: MP 7.15%

13 Years: MH 7.13%

14 Years: AP 7.11%

15 Years: MZ 7.15%

25 Years: JK 7.16%

Re-issue of 7.54% Chhattisgarh SGS 2031 issued on October 04, 2023 at 102.39/7.0998% 

T-Bill Cutoff:

091 Days: INR 7000 Crore 98.4222/6.4300%

182 Days: INR 6000 Crore 96.8408/6.5424%

364 Days: INR 6000 Crore 93.8875/6.5283%\u0009

•Commodities:

1)Brent Crude Oil: $75.19-$81.17 (Per barrel)

2)Gold: INR 7,664-INR 7,745 24 Carat (1 Gram)

3)Silver: INR 94,000-INR 97,000 (1 KG)

•US Treasury Yield: 

1)US 2 Years Treasury: 3.93%-4.09%

2)US 5 Years Treasury: 3.81%-4.00%

3)US 10 Years Treasury: 3.96%-4.12%

•Corporate Bond Highlights

AAA 3 Years Bond traded between 7.40%-7.45% this week.

AAA 5 Years Bond traded between 7.35%-7.40% this week.

AAA 10 Years Bond traded between 7.20%-7.25% this week

1. OPEC Monthly - Monday

2. September Retail Sales data - Thursday

3. Philly Fed Manufacturing data- Thursday 

4. September Housing Starts data - Friday

5. Total of 11 Fed speaker events this week

6. ~10% of S&P 500 companies report earnings

The dollar index managed to sustain higher all through last week. A strong rise in the US Treasury yields aided the greenback retain its strength. The US 10Yr Treasury yield surged above 4 per cent last week and has closed on a strong note at 4.1 per cent. 

We zoom in on the prospects of Cipla, as also the prospects of two other stocks — Prakash Industries and Tatva Chintan Pharma Chem 

We had initiated a ‘buy’ on CSB Bank’s stock in bl.portfolio edition dated July 3, 2022, when it was trading at ₹191, with a P/B (price to book value) multiple of 0.9 times (estimated FY23 book value basis). Since then, the stock has made a high of ₹422.2 in late December 2023, before going through a correction to current levels. It now trades at 1.4 times Q1 FY25 book value.

Vodafone Idea’s time can come, and it may carve out its own history like T-Mobile USA sometime in the future, but only if stakeholders act decisively and make required compromises today

Here is what the charts say about the shares of BHEL, Olectra Greentech, Whirlpool of India 

Gold ended last week flat whereas silver posted a loss. In terms of dollars, gold was up by a marginal 0.1 per cent as it closed at $2,657 per ounce. Silver lost 2.2 per cent and ended the week at $31.5 an ounce.

In the domestic market, gold futures (₹76,307 per 10 gm) was up 0.2 per cent and silver futures (₹91,690 per kg) was down 1.8 per cent.

Crude oil prices extended the gains last week. The Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) went up 1 per cent and ended the week at $78.9 per barrel. Similarly, the crude oil futures on the MCX was up 0.4 per cent and it closed the week at ₹6,364 a barrel.

Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (₹6,664), last week, announced a stock split with a ratio of 5:1. The face value per equity share is ₹5. The split will lead to necessary adjustments in the futures and options (F&O) contracts on this stock on the record date.

The company has decided October 28 as the record/effective date. On this day, the stock price and all derivatives contracts on Dr Reddy’s Laboratories will be adjusted appropriately.

Nifty 50 (24,964) and Bank Nifty (51,172) have posted a loss of 0.2 and 0.6 per cent respectively for the past week. Below is the analysis of the futures and options (F&O) data of both indices, and our suggestions on what traders should do.

The SEBI circular issued on October 1 has made several changes to derivatives trading. Take the permitted lot size for index derivatives, which is currently fixed such that the contract value is between ₹5 lakh and ₹10 lakh. The revised contract value, which will take effect from November 20, will be between ₹10 lakh and ₹15 lakh. This week, we discuss the potential impact of the revision in contract value on trading strategies.

Today, many seasoned investors are sounding the alarm that the Indian stock market is over-heated. As a long-term investor, you may also be looking to sell some shares to rebalance your portfolio to your preferred asset allocation, lock into unexpected gains or raise cash to capitalise on a future fall. 

We are in the final phase of peak interest rates. Though the RBI maintained status quo for the 10th consecutive time, shifting its policy stance from withdrawal of accommodation to neutral could probably be a teaser for rate cuts in the succeeding meeting. And, for the attention of investors looking for stable fixed returns, the clock is ticking to lock in on these high interest rates before they begin to slide.

In this backdrop, the long-term deposits offered by Sundaram Home Finance make a compelling case to invest for those investors looking for safety coupled with fixed returns.

​From being one of the earliest global corporations ​to invest big in the ‘India growth story’ much before the theme became the trend, and capturing the imaginations of millions of Indians with one of the most jazzy launches with the captivating Mr Kim-Shah Rukh commercials, to becoming India’s second-largest car manufacturer, Hyundai Motors India (HMIL) has made quite a strong imprint in India. It has continued its trend-setting tradition into the IPO markets as well, by launching the country’s largest IPO now. The IPO of HMIL will be open during October 15-17. The ₹27,870-crore offer for sale (no fresh issue) values the company at ₹1.59 lakh crore at a PE of 26.7 times Q1FY25 earnings, annualised. This is close to peer Maruti Suzuki’s valuation at 26 times FY25 earnings estimate.

In the past couple of years, investing in fixed-income options has become challenging considering the taxation changes.

Specifically, debt mutual funds faced much heat as indexation benefits were removed and all gains are being added to investors’ income and taxed at the applicable slab.

Therefore, any additional returns generated become important for investors.

In this regard, Tier 2 debt schemes of the National Pension System (NPS) have managed to steal a march over some of their debt mutual fund counterparts, making it an alternative avenue for debt fund investors.

Here’s an interesting stock idea: The stock idea that we have for you today Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The stock has surged over 11 per cent last week recovering all the loss made in the previous two weeks. The outlook is bullish, and the momentum looks strong. We expect the share price to go up further in the coming days.

#Nifty and #NiftyBank index bounced back last week. But that bounce seems to lack strength. Strong Foreign Money outflows (#FPI) are weighing on the Indian markets. That can continue to keep the #Nifty under pressure for some more time. We see chances for some more fall from here before the indices begin a fresh leg of upmove

Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company (MOAMC) on Friday announced the launch of its latest fund offer, the Motilal Oswal Digital India Fund. 

The fund is an open-ended equity scheme investing in Digital Space, focusing on Technology, Telecom, Media, Entertainment, and other related ancillary sectors for investors who want long-term capital appreciation.

The NFO opened on October 11, 2024, and closes on October 25. Senior officials clarified that the funds mopped up through this NFO will be invested only in digital companies and not in IT services providers.

Bigul, an innovative investment platform, has launched a new feature that allows investors to invest in a group of stocks based on specific themes.

Bigul Stock Baskets allow customers to select from several themes or sector-specific baskets curated by research analysts, enabling a streamlined and risk-mitigated investment experience.

The initiative simplifies the investment process, allowing users to easily initiate investments in their preferred sectors or themes, the platform said.

Indian bonds currently appear neutral to slightly attractive compared to the equity market, as well as their own historical performance during previous rate-cutting cycles, highlighted a report by SBI Mutual Fund.

The report noted that with markets anticipating a softening of interest rates, bond yields are reflecting the possibility of future cuts. This shift in monetary policy has created a favourable environment for Indian bonds, particularly government bonds.

As the earnings season begins and companies start reporting their financial results, the Nifty 50 index is projected to deliver a revenue growth of 4.5 per cent for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025 (FY25), according to a report by Axis Securities.

The report noted that Nifty will achieve growth in revenue of 4.5 per cent, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of 6 per cent, and profit after tax (PAT) of 4.1 per cent respectively, during the quarter.

As the stock market is witnessing huge volume, collection from Securities Transaction Tax (STT) surged 87 per cent within the first 193 days of the current fiscal as compared to corresponding period of last fiscal.

With this, it has achieved around 83 per cent of the budget estimates (BE) for FY25.

Currently, the expectation is that full-year collection will be much higher than BE.

Foreign investors turned net sellers in October, withdrawing shares worth ₹58,711 crore in the month so far owing to escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the strong performance of the Chinese market.

The outflow came following a nine-month high investment of ₹57,724 crore in September.

Since June, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have consistently bought equities, after withdrawing ₹34,252 crore in April-May. Overall, FPIs have been net buyers in 2024, except for January, April, and May, data with the depositories showed.

The combined market valuation of seven of the top-10 most valued firms eroded by ₹1,22,107.11 crore last week, with Tata Consultancy Services and Reliance Industries emerging as the biggest laggards, in line with weak trend in equities.

Last week, the BSE benchmark fell 307.09 points, or 0.37 per cent, to 81,381.36.

A SEBI-appointed committee is deliberating on whether mutual funds can launch a separate category of actively managed funds that invest fully in commodities via exchange traded commodity derivatives (ETCDs).

In 2019, SEBI had allowed MFs to participate in ETCDs, which are standardised agreements traded on regulated stock exchanges. For multi-assets schemes, the exposure to ETCDs was capped at 30 per cent of the net asset value of the scheme. The cap for other hybrid schemes was 10 per cent.