Share Market Highlights 7th June 2024: Sensex, Nifty surge over 2% as RBI holds repo rate at 6.5%

Benchmark Sensex soared by more than 1,720 points, or over 2 per cent, to hit life-time intra-day record highs on Friday, after the Reserve Bank of India, revised upwards the GDP growth projection to 7.2 per cent, for 2024-25 from 7 per cent earlier.

Life Insurance Corporation of India has received a notice from Federal Tax Authority, UAE imposing administrative penalty of United Arab Emirates Dirham (AED) 5,000 (Approx. ₹1,13,600). An appeal has been filed with the Authority and the response is awaited.

LIC stock trades at ₹995.90 on the NSE, up 1.54%.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

“The anticipation of stability within the coalition government at the centre, coupled with the RBI’s upward revision of its growth forecast for FY25 to 7.2%, fuelled a broad-based rally in the domestic market. The Indian market surpassed its previous record high set on exit-poll day and reached a fresh peak. Though the last mile towards the inflation target remains sticky, investors are expecting the MPC to be one step closer to the easing cycle.”

Madras Fertilizers Limited has appointed Manoj Kumar Jain, as Chairman & Managing Director of the company

Ramakrishnan, Ramamurthy, Executive Vice President, India- Worldline.

“The recommendation around increased adoption of recurring payments is a very welcome move. Enabling a friction less payments experience is a critical success factor for greater adoption of mobility solution. Use of recurring payments by managing top ups and balances in mobility related solutions like fastags, NCMC, pre-paid instruments etc. will hasten the adoption of digital payments”.

Top gainers on the NSE at 3 pm:

M&M (5.68%), Wipro (4.99%), Tech Mahindra (4.60%), Tata Steel (4.21%), Ultratech Cement (4.10%)

Top losers:

SBI Life (-1.17%), Tata Consumer Products (-0.43%)

Happiest Minds’ shares were up by 2.60 per cent to ₹841.60 at 2.44 pm on the BSE. 

ONGC said it is keen to engage international oil & gas companies to enhance production from its maturing Mumbai High field on the Arabian Sea. 

“ONGC is keen to engage an internationally-proven ‘Technical Service Provider’ to enhance production from its maturing Mumbai High field on the Arabian Sea. The Service Provider would be identified through an international competitive bidding (ICB), already floated on June 1, 2024, with due date for bid submission on September 15, 2024,” the E&P major said.

Pidilite Industries stock trades at ₹3,111.90 on the NSE, up 0.73%.

Tata Chemicals Europe Ltd, a subsidiary of Tata Chemicals Ltd, fined £1.1 million by the Chester Crown Court in the United Kingdom.

M&M (5.25%), Wipro (4.45%), Tata Steel (4.16%), Ultratech Cement (4.12%), Infosys (4.06%)

Gold price on Friday rose ₹4 to ₹73,135 per 10 gram in futures trade as speculators created fresh positions on a firm spot demand.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold contracts for August delivery traded higher ₹4 or 0.01 per cent at ₹73,135 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 16,751 lots.

Fresh positions built up by participants led to a rise in gold prices, analysts said.

Globally, gold futures grew 0.24 per cent to $2,394.10 per ounce in New York. 

Silver price on Friday fell ₹154 to ₹93,662 per kilogram as participants reduced their bets.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver contracts for July delivery declined ₹154 or 0.16 per cent to ₹93,662 per kg in a business turnover of 23,617 lots.

Globally, silver was trading 0.05 per cent lower at $31.35 per ounce in New York. 

“In alignment with the evolving growth-inflation dynamics and continued challenges in the global economy, we welcome the RBI’s prudent decision to maintain status quo on the repo rate and its stance on ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We are encouraged by the resilience of the Indian economy, and further RBI’s increased projection on GDP growth at 7.2%, up from 7%. 

“Against the backdrop of a favourable forecast of above-normal southwest monsoon, boost in investment activity and revival in rural demand, we remain optimistic on demand for credit through gold loans, MSME loans, microfinance and housing loans. We were also glad to witness the resilient performance showcased by the Indian financial ecosystem backed by improvement in asset quality, enhanced provisioning for bad loans, sustained capital adequacy and rise in profitability. Such recognitions encourage NBFCs like us to boost our growth multi-fold.”

HUDCO stock trades at ₹247.85 on the NSE, down by 0.72%.

ICICI Bank stock trades at ₹1,124.95 on the NSE, up 1.31%

BSE Sensex was up by 1.85 per cent or 1,391 points to 76,466, while the NSE Nifty was at 23,178.50, up by 1.56 per cent or 357.10 points. A total of 3,851 stocks were actively traded, 2,776 advanced, while 933 declined and 142 stocks remained unchanged. 166 stocks hit 52-week high and 31 stocks hit 52-week low.

“Today’s MPC meeting’s outcome is largely in line with market expectations. The upward revision in real GDP growth projection by 20 bps though wasn’t largely expected by market but given the momentum in recent quarters it doesn’t come as a big surprise. Also, note we now have one more MPC member in dissent voting for 25 bps rate cut along with change in stance to neutral.

The RBI’s policy rate of 6.5% amounts to a real policy rate of 2%, based on the central bank’s year-ahead inflation projection. The neutral real policy rate can be estimated as being in the 1.0%-1.5% range. The real policy rate facing the industrial sector is even higher. This creates the possibility of more members in MPC turning dovish in coming months barring any food inflation shock or big change in Fiscal policy (watch out for Final Budget FY 2025)”.

The Reserve Bank of India on Friday proposed a facility to allow customers to automatically replenish their UPI Lite wallets to promote small-value digital payments.

Currently, the UPI Lite has a daily limit of ₹2,000, while the upper limit for a single payment is ₹500.

UPI Lite is a simplified version of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI). It acts as an on-device wallet for small-value transactions.

“MPC has delivered a status quo on Policy rate and ongoing stance on expected lines. It is worthwhile to note the changing pattern of the majority from 5:1 to 4:2 indicating an emergence of lateral thinking within the committee members. 

In the recent past, there has been a frequent change in market expectations regarding the timing and pace of interest rates globally commensurate with changing incoming data and central bank communications. Against this backdrop, clarification from the governor on policy actions primarily driven out of the domestic growth inflation dynamic will align the market to focus on the domestic factors reducing the heightened correlation with rate movements in US markets in the recent past.

Taking into consideration the CPI trajectory which is projected as a one-off dip in Q2 to 3.8% followed by resurgence in Q3 and Q4 of FY 25, MPC will carefully monitor food inflation and oil prices to ascertain a descent of inflation to 4% target on durable basis.

This may be considered as a lead indicator to estimate the first policy rate easing likely to be preceded by the probable change of stance to “neutral” in the third quarter of this financial year (OCT-DEC); if the inflation trajectory turns out as projected by MPC. “

“RBI’s verdict to maintain the repo rate comes as no surprise on the backdrop of uncertain global scenario, mainly the geo-political tensions that has been a constant concern, thereby stressing the need to be vigilant during these times. With FY25 CPI inflation forecast been kept unchanged at 4.5% followed by softness in inflation in Q2 FY25 brings in a mild relief , however, spillover risk will remain a pressure point in the second half of FY25. However, GDP growth projection for FY25 having increased to 7.2% from the earlier 7% showcases and infuses a belief that the country’s growth story will continue to remain robust, thereby strengthening the disposable income and purchasing power of the buyers. But, with current global economic instability, a muted growth in trade activities of gems and jewellery could be seen until the scenario gains stability.”

“The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to keep the repo rate steady at 6.5% and continue its ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ policy. This decision means that loans linked to the repo rate will not see an increase in EMIs, providing relief to borrowers. However, interest rates on loans tied to the marginal cost of funds-based lending rate might still rise. RBI projects a 7.2% GDP growth for FY25 and aims to bring inflation down to 4%. If the 7.2% growth is achieved, it will be the fourth consecutive year of over 7% growth. Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted the need to stay cautious due to food price uncertainties and potential inflation risks. With inflation declining and GDP growth looking positive, the RBI is focused on ensuring inflation remains sustainably low. While borrowing costs may remain high, interest rates on fixed deposits are expected to increase, offering better returns for savers. As global rate cuts are anticipated, led by the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve may also provide relief soon. For consumers, this means stable loan rates and potentially higher returns on deposits in the near future.”

Top gainers on the NSE at 12 noon:

Wipro (5.01%), Infosys (4.20%), Bajaj Finance (3.83%), Tech Mahindra (3.82%), LTIMindtree (3.70%)

Top losers:

SBI Life (-1.24%), Bajaj Auto (-0.48%), Tata Consumer Products (-0.32%), Britannia (-0.21%), Eicher Motors (-0.03%)

Aditya Birla Money (14.54%)

IIFL Securities (12.98%)

Avanti Feeds (12.32%)

Heritage Foods (10%)

Raymond (6.68%)

Stocks advanced on BSE at 12 noon on June 6, 2024, were 2,762 against 897 stocks that declined; 137 stocks remain unchanged. Total stocks traded were 3,796. The number of stocks that recorded a 52-week high was 153, and those that hit a 52-week low was 28. 

In addition, 243 stocks traded in upper circuit, while 144 hit the lower circuit.

Aditya Birla Money (14.54%)

IIFL Securities (12.98%)

Avanti Feeds (12.32%)

Heritage Foods (10%)

Raymond (6.68%)

“The RBI’s decision to keep policy rates unchanged at 6.5% and maintain its stance on withdrawing accommodation highlights its primary focus on controlling inflation, reflecting confidence in India’s current economic growth. This approach suggests that the RBI is carefully monitoring global economic trends and is prepared to align India’s monetary policy with international standards to ensure stability.”

The RBI policy aligns with expectations and is not expected to have a major impact on the market. Attention will now shift to the formation of the new cabinet and global cues. Currently, the market appears strong, and there is a good chance that the bullish momentum will continue. The 20-DMA of 22,600 is likely to provide support to the Nifty, while the high of 23,338 is a key hurdle.

Bajaj Finance board has approved the offer for sale of up to such number of equity shares of face value of ₹10 each of a wholly owned subsidiary, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited (BHFL), aggregating to ₹3000 crore , pursuant to the initial public offer of equity shares of face value of ₹10 each proposed to be undertaken by BHFL.

Bajaj Finance stock surges 3.92% on the NSE, trading at ₹7,197.

BSE Sensex jumps over 1000 pts. Trades at 76,137.98, higher by 1063.47 pts or 1.42% as of 11.41 am. Nifty 50 trades at 23,127.95, up by 306.55 pts or 1.34%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is planning to set up a digital payments intelligence platform for sharing data on a real-time basis across digital payment eco-system to safeguard the interest of consumers.

The proposed network-level intelligence platform will boost consumer confidence, said RBI in its bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement released on Friday.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its bi-monthly monetary policy, maintaining the key interest rate (repo) at 6.5%. The focus is on withdrawing the accommodative monetary policy stance to curb inflation. The next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for August 8. 

With a view to deepening the digital payments ecosystem and as part of its efforts towards financial inclusion the Reserve Bank of India governor today announced extending the e-mandates framework to other non-periodic recurring payments such as Fastag and for UPI Lite.

Payments such as replenishment of balances in Fastag and National Common Mobility Card, which are recurring in nature, will be brought under the framework of e-mandates. This will ensure that the balances in the wallets for such payments will be automatically refilled.

The Reserve Bank of India has upped real GDP growth projection for 2024-25 to 7.2 per cent from 7.0 per cent projected earlier.

The quarterly projections are: Q1 at 7.3 per cent (7.1 per cent earlier projection), Q2 at 7.2 per cent (6.9 per cent); Q3 at 7.3 per cent (7.0 per cent); and Q4 at 7.2 per cent ( 7.0 per cent). The risks are evenly balanced.

On Friday, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent as it awaits retail inflation to move to the 4 per cent target on a durable basis. This also comes against the backdrop of strong growth momentum.

The six-member rate-setting committee also persisted with its “withdrawal of accommodation” stance to ensure that inflation progressively aligns with the target while supporting growth.

Ami Organics announced the incorporation of Enchem Ami Organics Pvt Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ami Organics Electrolytes Private Limited (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Ami Organics Limited). 

Ami Organics stock trades at ₹1,215 on the NSE, up 0.38%

Top gainers on the BSE at 11.05 am:

Avani Feeds (14.11%), PGEL (11.96%), Mastek (9.60%), Paytm (8.93%), Garware (8.58%)

Top losers:

Gokaldas Exports (-5.42%), Nam-India (-2.97%), Fincables (-2.21%), Prestige (-2.11%), Supreme Industries (-1.99%)

1. Monetary Policy and Liquidity Management

 Positioning the Reserve Bank as Leader of the Global South

 Review of Monetary Policy Framework to address:

 Balancing price stability and economic growth from an Emerging Market Economy (EME) perspective;

 Refinements in monetary policy communication; and

 Spillovers to EMEs from private and public debt overhang in systemically important economies.

2) Globalisation of India’s Financial Sector

 Financial Sector Reforms related to:

 Expanding banking domestically in consonance with nationalgrowth;

 Positioning 3-5 Indian banks among top 100 global banks in terms of size and operations;

 Deepening and modernisation of financial markets/institutions/infrastructure; and

 Supporting International Financial Services Centres Authority

(IFSCA) to make GIFT City a leading international financial centre.

3) Making Reserve Bank’s Supervision a Global Model

 Risk Focused Supervision:

 Supervisory culture for effective risk discovery; and

 Ensuring an appropriate compliance culture at Supervised Entities (SEs).

 Building ‘Through the Cycle’ Risk Assessment Framework by continuous Horizon Scanning and Holistic Risk Assessment;

 Customer-centric supervision: Improving the conduct of SEs to protect and promote customers’ interests through appropriate supervisory focus;

 Effective Corrective Actions: Focus on prudent supervisory judgement and assessing supervisory effectiveness; and

 Creating a Data Analytics Universe.

4) Deepening and Universalisation of Digital Payment Systems - Domestically and Globally

 Internationalisation of India’s Payment Systems – UPI/RTGS/NEFT;

 Participation in Payment Systems Linkage Projects across countries – bilateral & multilateral;

 Increasing the domestic usage of digital payments – Har Payment Digital; and

 Phased implementation of Central Bank Digital Currency (e - Rupee).

The RBI MPC held policy rate steady for 5th time. However the voting changed to 4-2 with 2 MPC members voting for a rate cut. RBI upgraded FY25 GDP growth to 7.2% from 7%, which is positive. However, the RBI was concerned with sticky food inflation amid uptrend in global food prices and industrial commodity prices. Normal monsoon this year is critical for easing of food inflation. RBI also emphasized that there will not be any blind following of the Fed in terms of rate cut as they will give more weightage to local growth inflation dynamic. Overall, a prudent monetary policy in our view with potential rate cuts pushed in the 3rd quarter of FY25.

Nifty 50 continues to move up. The index is currently trading at 22,958, up 0.6 per cent. The advances/declines ratio is at 35:15. This is positive. If this sustains, more rise can be seen during the day.

Bank Nifty opened today’s session with a gap-up at 49,317 against yesterday’s closing level of 49,292. The index is now hovering around 49,460, up 0.3 per cent.

Substantiating the positive bias, the advance/decline ratio currently stands at 10/2. Bandhan Bank, up 2.7 per cent, is the top gainer whereas Kotak Mahindra Bank, down 0.3 per cent, is the top loser.

Tata Consultancy Services has launched TCS AI WisdomNextTM, a platform that aggregates multiple Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) services into a single interface and enables organisations to rapidly adopt next-gen technologies at scale, lower costs and within regulatory frameworks.

Stock rises 1.63% on the NSE, trading at ₹3,892.70

BSE Sensex rises 534.65 pts or 0.71% to trade at 75,609.16 as of 10.32 am, and Nifty 50 trades at 22,988.00, up 166.60 pts or 0.73%.

Top 5 gainers of Nifty IT stocks include Wipro, Mphasis, Persistent Systems, LTIMindtree, and Coforge.

HDFC Asset Management Company’s stock trades at ₹3,772.55 on the NSE, up 0.32%.

Hero MotoCorp stock inches up 0.78% on the NSE, trading at ₹5,577.45. Company had announced the acquisition of an additional 2.2 per cent stake in Ather Energy for $124 crore.

Vedanta stock rises 1.72% on the NSE, trading at ₹457.65 on receipt of approvals from the majority of its creditors for a proposed demerger of businesses, marking an important step in the company’s plan to split into six independent listed companies.

Wipro stock emerged among the top gainers of the Nifty 50 pack on Friday’s early trade after securing a $500 million deal from a US communication service provider.

Focus on energy security and transition

We see Modi 3.0 becoming a reality with the support of its allies, with a likely swearing-in early next week. Our channel checks suggest an ambitious 100-days plan for Modi 3.0 to hit the ground running with the likely award of large thermal power and transmission lines for energy security and transition, a new hydro policy to promote carbon-free energy, subsidies for battery storage and India’s first offshore wind concession. NTPC is leading the way with 8.8GW of tenders announced this week, which in sync with the government’s plan, while crystallising its decadal growth path. While we believe off-shore wind subsidies could be postponed, the hydro policy is important for India’s net zero. NTPC, NHPC, PWGR and BHEL are key beneficiary of the 100-day power plan.

The Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd has contracted to buy a Medium Range product tanker of about 49,990 dwt. The 2013 built vessel is expected to join the Company’s fleet by Q2 FY25. 

Stock surges 2.15% on the NSE, trading at ₹1,092.85

Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers has emerged as the lowest bidder (Ll) for construction of a Research Vessel for Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). The order value is likely to be ₹500 crore approx. 

GRSE stock surges 7% on the NSE, trading at ₹1,389.

Adani Ports and SEZ received a letter of intent for operation and maintenance of container terminal at Kolkata Port. 

Adani Ports stock rises 1.78% on the NSE, trading at ₹1,377.

Zen Technologies has delivered its innovative Zen Anti‐Drone System with Hard‐Kill (Zen ADS HK) to the Army Air Defence College in Gopalpur, Odisha. 

Stock jumps 7.59% on the NSE, trading at ₹256.65

India Pesticides has commissioned an intermediate plant towards Backward Integration of one of the Fungicide which was primarily being imported.

India VIX cooled off by 12.39% from 18.89 to 16.55 levels. Volatility crashed for the second consecutive day and comforted the bulls to hold at higher zones.

Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) increased from 0.75 to 1.03 level.

On option front, Weekly Maximum Call OI is at 23000 then 23500 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 22500 then 22300 strike. Call writing is seen at 23200 then 23000 strike while Put writing is seen at 22800 then 22700 strike.

Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 22200 to 23500 zones while an immediate range between 22500 to 23100 levels.

For weekly Bank Nifty, Maximum Put OI is at 45000 then 49000 strike and maximum Call OI is placed at 55000 then 52000 strike. We have seen Call writing at 55000 strike while Put writing is witnessed at 49500 strike.

Bank Nifty Put Call Ratio decreased from 0.83 to 0.71. Implied volatility fell from 26.71 to 25.34 levels.

Bank Nifty (CMP 49,292)

Data setup for Bank Nifty suggests a trading range in between 48500/48888 to 49750/50000 zones.

Looking ahead at the FII’s derivatives activity, there was position unwinding in index futures, position unwinding in index options and short built up in stock futures.

In the cash market, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 6868 crores while DII’s were net buyers worth 3718 crores. FIIs Index Long Short Ratio decreased to 17.16%.

Derivatives data and price set up suggests, Nifty has to hold above 22750 zones for an upside move towards 22950 then 23100 zones whereas supports are placed at 22650 then 22450 zones.

Bank Nifty has to continue to hold above 48888 zones for a bounce towards 49750 then 50000 zones while on the downside support is seen at 48888 then 48500 levels.

“There was no technical glitch at the exchange end on 4th June. However, there was some lag in receiving payments from UPI channel for a few customers.” attributable to BSE spokesman

Top gainers on the NSE at 9.30 am:

Wipro (3.77%), LTIMindtree (2.48%), Tech Mahindra (1.94%), Infosys (1.68%), Adani Ports (1.56%)

Top losers:

SBI Life (-0.99%), IndusInd (-0.53%), L&T (-0.48%), ITC (-0.32%), Kotak Bank (-0.29%)

Key expectations in charts; we remain guarded

- We revisit the building blocks of our growth and unit economics model for Zomato, and see risks to consensus expectations.

- Key risks to consensus: rising competitive intensity and slower margin improvement in Blinkit; growth moderation in Food Delivery from 2H.

- Stock pricing in 16-35% 10Y GOV CAGR in Food Delivery-QCom, or scaling to US$16-20bn, alongside fully optimised margins. Zomato is Marquee Sell Idea.

ViewPoint: Nifty Outlook for 7th Jun’24:

Long : Short Ratio is at 17% : 83%

VIX at 16.8

FIIs outlook sideways for indices & cautious for FnO stocks

Nifty Futures witnessed long build up to the tune of 4.4% + its PCR_OI is at 1.03 indicating a slightly positive outlook

The new weekly expiry sees immediate high OI at 23000/23500 CE each with more than 1.2 L contracts but overall highest OI is at 24000 CE with 2.57 L contracts

On the PE side, aggressive OI additions seen in 22800 PE followed by additions in 22700/22500 PE

Immediate support at 22600 below which selling pressure maybe witnessed

Intraday resistance at 22900 above which it can test 23000/23100 again. Overall resistance continues at ATH of 23340

View: Positive to test 23100/23300 as long as 22600 support is intact. Use this opportunity to lighten positions as profit booking may emerge from those levels.

NIFTY-50 OUTLOOK

NIFTY-50 has closed in a doji candle near the higher end of the range and we believe there could be some profit booking from the higher point of 23,000 levels. f Any decline near to the 20 day average of 22,560 levels will be a good opportunity for longs and 50% retracement of the previous move. f RSI and other key technical indicators are strongly overbought and we expect to consolidate or decline from current levels. f Highest call OI has moved lower to 23,000 strike while the downside the highest put OI is at 22,500 for the weekly expiry. 

BANK NIFTY OUTLOOK

Bank Nifty continued the positive momentum with PSU Banks to gain by 2.5% while private banks witnessed profit booking from the higher range. f A doji candle near the resistance of 50,000 levels would continue to act as resistance while the four hourly average at 48,500 is a good support from current levels. f RSI and other key technical indicators are overbought from current levels and we expect some retracement to test the lower range. f Bank Nifty highest call is at 50,000 levels while on the downside put OI is at 49,000 levels for the weekly expiry.

International and domestic copper rose on Thursday on optimism that central bank rate cuts will help economic growth though gains were capped by worries about sluggish demand.

Metals joined wider financial markets gaining after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years.

The Dollar also weakened on Thursday and lent support to copper prices.

The discount paid on SHFE prices to buy copper in the spot market narrowed this week, and Yangshan premium, an indicator of import appetite, gradually recovered but was still in negative territory.

Most other metals on LME ended marginally higher on Thursday’s session.

From an intraday perspective, COMEX and LME copper have started flat to marginally weaker this early Friday morning in Asian trade ahead of key trade data from China today.

Additionally, jobs report tonight will also move the markets.

However, downside could be capped amid hopes that more monetary policy easing is in the pipeline.

Internationally, LME copper range is $10,045 to $10,200, the range for MCX copper June is 875 to 885.

Most other metals on LME have started flat to marginally higher this early Friday morning in Asian trade, but a stronger dollar could cap upside.

Internationally, the range for LME zinc is $2,890 to $2,940, while that for MCX zinc June is 258 to 264.

International and domestic gold and silver prices surged higher as the Dollar and treasury yields remained subdued on Thursday.

The Dollar eased against the Euro after the ECB cut interest rates for the first time in nearly five years.

Additionally, weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised hopes of a Fed rate cut later this year.

Data on Thursday showed US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by 8,000 to 229,000, showing a weaker labour market than expectations of 220,000.

Meanwhile, central banks around the world continue to buy Gold, aiding the price rise.

The latest data from the IMF shows that global gold reserves held by central banks rose by a net 33 tonnes in April of this year.

From an intraday perspective, international gold prices have started flat this early Friday morning in Asian trade ahead of key nonfarm payrolls data tonight.

However, downside could be capped supported by global rate-cut prospects driven by the ECB and the Bank of Canada lowering rates this week.

Internationally, the range for COMEX August gold is $2,365 to $2,410, while that for MCX gold August is 72,700 to 73,400.

International silver prices have started flat this early Friday morning in Asian trade ahead of key nonfarm payrolls data tonight.

The Dollar and the bond yields have started with small gains and could cap upside ahead of data.

Internationally, the range for COMEX July silver is $30.500 to $32.000, while that for MCX silver July is 91,800 to 94,900.

International and domestic crude oil futures posted moderate gains on Thursday after Saudi Arabia Warns OPEC+ production increases can be reversed.

The rise comes despite signals of soft demand, with the EIA’s weekly survey showing a 1.2-million-barrel rise in U.S. oil inventories last week.

The Dollar eased on Thursday and lent support.

The ECB Thursday raised its 2024 Eurozone GDP forecast to +0.9% from +0.6%, which was positive for energy demand and crude prices.

International crude oil futures have started marginally stronger this early Friday morning in Asian trade on as OPEC taper worries ease.

Tonight’s U.S. payrolls will be closely watched as markets look for signs that could lead the Fed to start easing.

Intraday, the NYMEX WTI July futures could trade in band of $74.50 to $76.50, while MCX June crude futures could trade within 6,230 to 6,375.

NYMEX and domestic gas futures rose on Thursday on forecasts for hotter US temperatures that will boost gas demand.

Additionally, output also slowed and lent support.

However, further gains were capped after weekly EIA gas inventories rose by 98 bcf, above expectations of by 88 bcf.

Moreover, net flows to the Texas export terminal remained low and weighed on sentiments.

NYMEX gas futures have started stronger this early Friday morning in Asian trade on lower output and favourable weather conditions.

However, a rise in weekly inventories and lower flows to export demand could keep gains in check.

Intraday, the NYMEX July futures could trade in band of $2.750 to $2.900, while MCX June crude futures could trade in band of 225 to 240.

A turn lower ensued as soon as the anticipated extension in uptrend reached 22900. However, bargain hunting has ensured that the uptrend has not lost its shape, retaining the prospects of further extension in the uptrend, probably aiming 23350. However, 22900 appears as a stiff challenge now, and should corrections do not end at 22535, expect declines to 22180. A collapse is less expected though. - Read more

Derivative outlook:

Nifty weekly contract has highest open interest at 23500 for Calls and 22800 for Puts while monthly contracts have highest open interest at 24000 for Calls and 20000 for Puts. Highest new OI addition was seen at 22850 for Calls and 22800 for Puts in weekly and at 24000 for Calls and 22800 for Puts in monthly contracts. FIIs decreased their future index long position holdings by 10.41%, decreased future index shorts by 8.32% and in index options by 38.03% decrease in Call longs, 38.70% decrease in Call short, 48.32% decrease in Put longs and 44.16% decrease in Put shorts.

Stocks closed mixed Thursday, after the European Central Bank cut rates for the first time in five years and as investors looked ahead to Friday’s monthly jobs report to help gauge the strength of the U.S. economy.

Wall Street expects to see 190,000 new jobs in the May report, slightly up from April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at a historically low 3.9%

Any upside or downside surprise could prompt investors to reassess their outlook for Fed rate policy. Many analysts eye September as the most likely time frame for a rate cut, assuming inflation continues to ease.

The European Central Bank cut rates for the first time since 2019. The move was expected but marks a significant change in the central bank’s policy. Attention now turns to when the Federal Reserve will follow suit.

The Monetary Policy Committee is likely to maintain the status quo on the Reserve Bank of India’s key lending rate amid the continuing need to bring down inflation further, even as economic activity remains strong. All economists polled expect the MPC to hold the Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate steady at 6.5%. This will be the first RBI policy after the Lok Sabha election results 2024.

In corporate news, Wipro Ltd said it has been awarded a $500-million deal by a leading US communication service provider over a period of five years. Wipro shall provide managed services for some products and industry-specific solutions. Rail Vikas Nigam Ltd (RVNL) said on Thursday (June 6) that it had been awarded a contract worth Rs 495 crore by the NTPC. IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd along with its associate announced a strong year-on-year toll revenue growth of 30% for May 2024.

Nifty extended its recovery for a second consecutive session on June 06 after the steep fall witnessed on June 04. Broad market indices rose more than the Nifty even as the advance decline ratio rose. The intraday volatility is falling over the past two days. Nifty could now stay in the 22419-23180 band for the near term. RBI Governor’s commentary on inflation and future interest rate cut trajectory will drive the markets in the near term.

Indian markets could open flat to mildly higher, in line with mixed Asian and US markets on June 06

Buy, TP Rs 296 

Strong vol & higher realization to drive margin 

Co has taken 2 successive price hikes in 1QFY25 

Full capacity utilization at NMDC Steel, ramp up of RINL’s blast furnace 3 by JSPL & commissioning of JSW’s 5 mtpa Vijaynagar expansion would boost sales 

Buy, TP Rs 310

Despite reduced majority, expect that upcoming government’s policy focus on investment-led growth, capex, infrastructure, manufacturing,& defense will continue 

Co’s order inflows for FY24 were far ahead of its guidance

UW, TP Rs 421 

Mega-deal ($500m for 5 ys) in US could be taken positively – especially when discretionary spending environment still remains tight 

Believe that even though such large deals add to visibility on rev growth, near-term growth could lag peers

Modi 3.0—100-day power plan 

NTPC is leading way with 8.8GW of tenders announced this week 

While believe off-shore wind subsidies could be postponed, hydro policy is important for India’s net zero. 

NTPC, NHPC, PWGR & BHEL are key beneficiary 

Given a weaker-than-expected election mandate, fears of a more populist government have risen. 

This, along with falling margins, may drive a de-rating of OMCs 

Prefer ONGC over IOCL, BPCL and HPCL.

U-P, TP Rs 150 

Board approves Rs20bn fundraising as sector landscape is changing 

With this fundraising, think Zee is looking to fortify ahead of increased competition 

Await fundraising & Co’s growth pursuit 

Low promoter ownership of 4% remains a key challenge 

Indian benchmark indices opened flat with a mild negative bias on Friday. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 90.19 points to 74,984.32 in early trade, while the NSE Nifty fell 28.45 points to 22,792.95. Analysts anticipate the market will move in a narrow range following election-triggered volatility. They noted that the focus has shifted to the RBI monetary policy outcome, with expectations leaning towards a status quo stance. The focus will be on the RBI’s pronouncements, particularly regarding GDP and inflation estimates for the financial year 2025.

Buy, TP Raised to Rs 5700 from Rs 5100

Factor in Indigo moving toward its historical peak of spreads over FY2026-27 

Recent sound bites from Industry experts suggest most challengers to Indigo will see another year of stiff losses in FY2025

Citi on Gas

PNGRB has now issued draft regulations that seek to bring LNG terminals under its purview 

move intends to increase regulatory oversight operation of LNG terminals 

this could manifest in the form of uncertainty on the strong pricing power that Petronet LNG currently. 

Jefferies on Gas Sector

Govt is reviving talks to include NG under GST. 

Among 4 key states that could hold sway, 3 are under the ruling NDA. 

GAIL’s consol Ebitda could rise 2% assuming it retains benefit in LPG segment 

GUJGA’s competitiveness to propane would improve by 6% 

GREED & fear will shave the weighting in public sector companies in the long-only India portfolio Weightings in ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, REC Limited and Coal India will be reduced by one percentage point each. 

Investment in PolicyBazaar will be introduced with a 4% weighting 

As for the Asia ex-Japan long-only portfolio, the investment in JSW Energy will be increased by one percentage point by shaving the investment in State Bank of India.

Still not out of the woods 

Downgrade SRF/Aarti to EW & Tata Chem to UW 

Fiscal 2025 should be a story of monetisation & restocking as vol traction improves across multiple end markets, tempered by competition and uncertain pricing dynamics. 

Remain on sidelines 

SRF – Downgrade to EW, TP cut to Rs2,115 from Rs2,557 

Aarti – Downgrade to EW, TP Rs 613 from Rs575 

Tata Chem – Downgrade to UW, TP cut to Rs 843 from Rs904 

Route – Tender 

Buyback Price: 4,450/- 

Current Market Price: 3997.10/-

Market Cap: Rs 16,720 crores 

Buyback Size: Rs 164.65 Crs (Representing 24.14 % and 24.69 % of the total paidup equity share capital and free reserves) 

Buyback Size: 3,70,000 shares (Representing 0.88 % of O/s. shares) 

Retail Quota: 55,500 Shares 

Entitlement:

General Category - 3 Equity Share for every 392 Equity Shares held on the Record Date

Retail Category - 37 Equity Shares for every 483 Equity Shares held on the Record Date

Buyback Record Date: 03 June 2024

Tender Period:

Start Date - 07 June 2024 (Today)

Close Date - 13 June 2024 

Obligation Date - 20 June 2024 

Settlement Date - 21 June 2024

Russia announced that they can pause or reverse voluntary production output increases if they find market is not strong enough. At 9.08 am on Friday, August Brent oil futures were at $79.92, up by 0.06 per cent, and July crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $75.64, up by 0.12 per cent. June crude oil futures were trading at ₹6319 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Friday morning against the previous close of ₹6326, down by 0.11 per cent, and July futures were trading at ₹6313 against the previous close of ₹6322, down by 0.14 per cent.

China’s trade surplus climbed to $82.62 billion in May 2024, up from $65.55 billion in the same time a year earlier, exceeding market expectations of $73 billion. It was the greatest trade surplus since February, as exports increased far more than imports. Exports increased by 7.6%, above projections of 6% growth, while imports increased by 1.8%, falling short of market expectations of a 4.2% rise.

Silver rises when the European Central Bank cuts interest rates, a day after the Bank of Canada does the same. It is widely predicted that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates in September. The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates for the first time since September 2019. The ECB today dropped key interest rates by 25 basis points while raising inflation predictions for 2024 and 2025. The ECB boosted its headline inflation projection for 2024 to 2.5% from 2.3% earlier, and for 2025 to 2.2% from 2%. The Labour Department reported that first unemployment claims rose to 229,000, up 8,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 221,000. The United States put 50% tariffs on Chinese imports of solar cells, one of the largest sectors for silver in an industrial end, in order to prevent demand for panels manufactured with corporate bases in China and important factories in Southeast Asia.

Gold prices fell slightly but were on track for their first weekly increase in three months, with investors looking for hints on the potential for interest rate cuts from U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in the day. The dollar remained near an eight-week low, while benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields had their worst week since December 2023. Despite a reduction in physical demand, gold prices are anticipated to reach another record high this year, according to consultancy Metals Focus, as interest rate cuts come amid US-China tensions and turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East. In May, the Perth Mint’s gold product sales dipped to their lowest level since March, while silver sales increased 16%. Poland has boosted its gold holdings, most recently purchasing 5 tonnes of gold, and aims to continue doing so, according to Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski.

KEC Intl: Vimal Kejriwal, MD & CEO

Post-Election Growth Outlook for Infrastructure Giant: What Lies Ahead for KEC International?

Minda Inds: Sunil Bohra, ED&CFO

Will See 20% EV Passenger Absorption, But It Is Unclear When This Will Be Achieved: Uno Minda

Orchid Chem: Manish Dhanuka, MD

DCGI Has Asked For Phase 4 Clinical Trials For Enmetazobactam Drug: Orchid Pharma

PVR: Ajjay Bijli, CMD

Planning To Open 120 New Screens In FY25’: PVR Inox’s Ajay Bijli On Expansion & The Plan Ahead

Sudarshan Chem: Rajesh Rathi, MD

Sudarshan Chemicals: Navigating Industry Challenges and Growth Strategy Ahead

Titan Company: Ajoy Chawla, CEO-Jewellery Division

Target 40% Revenue CAGR And Aim To Add Over 100 Tanishq Stores Over Next 3 Years: Titan

Aurobindo Pharm : Santhanam Subramanian, CFO

Would Like To Backward Integrate Into Contract Development: Aurobindo Pharma

Ugro Capital: Shachindra Nath, Executive CMD

Base Case Is To Grow AUM By ?3,000 Cr Every Year & Target AUM Of ?20,000 Cr By FY26: U GRO Capital

Coromandel Int: Raghuram Devarakonda, Director

Will See 15-20% Of Overall FY25 Revenue From New Products: Coromandel International

Gateway Distri: Prem Kishan Gupta, CMD

CFS Business Contributed Negatively To Overall Profits: Gateway Distriparks

Events today…

Results today…

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Bonus issue 3:1

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 2294.9

Ex Bonus 10 June 2024 (Monday)

Last date Trade for Before Bonus Today

Ex-Dividend 10 June 2024 (Monday)

Last date for Cum-Dividend Today 

Dr. Lal Pathlabs Ltd 

Dividend Per Share Rs.6 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 2758.65 

Nelco Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.2.2 

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 718.65

ZEEL

Emami, Heritage Foods, Johnson Controls - Hitachi Air Conditioning India, and PTC Industries.

Himadri Speciality Chemical, SMC Global Securities, Indian Bank. 

Indiamart Intermesh, Home First Finance, Himadri Speciality Chemical, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, The Indian Hotels, JM Financials, SMC Global Securities, and UNO Minda. 

Century Extrusions, Dredging Corporation of India, Dhunseri Ventures, Ganesh Housing Corporation, Indowind Energy. 

Price Band revised from 10% to 20%: BEML Land Assets, Crest Ventures, Dynamic Cables, G R Infraprojects, Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers, Hindustan Construction Company, HPL Electric and Power, IFCI, Inox Wind, India Pesticides, India Tourism Development, JAI Corp, Kalyan Forge, Kamdhenu Ventures, Kesoram Industries, Kirloskar Pneumatic, Mankind Pharma, MMTC, MTNL, NBCC, Prakash Pipes, Premier Explosives, Shipping Corp, Tejas Networks, Dredging Corporation of India. 

Lloyds Metals and Energy: Promoter Thriveni Earthmovers created a pledge for 29.28 lakh shares on June.

India Cements: Promoter EWS Finance and Investments revoked a pledge for 33,000 shares on June 4. 

Omaxe: Promoter Guild Builders Private revoked a pledge for 2.98 shares between May 31 to June 4.

Raymond: Promoter Shephali Ruia bought 13,187 shares between May 31 and June 3. 

Pennar Industries: Promoter Aditya Narsing Rao bought 15,750 shares on June 4. 

Marksans Pharma: Promoter Sandra Saldanha bought 63,276 shares on June 5.

Prime Focus: Promoter Naresh Mahendranath Malhotra revoked a pledge for 2.11 crore shares on June 4. 

Gensol Engineering: Promoter Anmol Singh Jaggi bought 53,945 shares on June 4. 

Krishna Diagonistics: Promoter Krsna Diagnostics (Mumbai) bought 45,000 shares on June 4.

Arman Financial Services: Elevation Capital V sold 1.29 lakh shares (1.48%) at Rs 2,290.62 apiece. 

B.L. Kashyap and Sons: Embassy Property Developments Private Limited sold 18.25 lakh shares (0.8%) at Rs 78.34 apiece.

NCC: Smallcap World Fund sold 31.69 lakh shares (0.5%) at Rs 308.13 apiece. 

PB Fintech: Tencent Cloud Europe B.V. sold 33 lakh shares (0.73%) at Rs 1259.71 apiece. 

Polyplex Corporation: Wisdomtree Trust A/c Wisdom Tree India Investment Portfolio sold 1.81 lakh shares (0.57%) at Rs 777.02 apiece.

ICICI Bank: SEBI has issued an administrative warning to the bank regarding the outreach by bank employees to influence votes for delisting equity shares of ICICI Securities. 

Hero MotoCorp: India’s largest two-wheeler maker picked up an additional 2.2% stake in the Bengaluru-based electric mobility startup Ather Energy for Rs 125 crore. 

Wipro: The company has been awarded a $500 million deal by a leading US communication service. The contract value is around Rs 4,175 crore. 

Rail Vikas Nigam: The company received a letter of acceptance from NTPC for a project worth Rs 495 crore.

Hindustan Unilever: The company appointed Arun Neelakantan as Executive Director, effective July 1. 

Mastek: The company introduced the icxPro platform with NVIDIA AI. icxPro is a cloud-native platform designed for building scalable AI apps. 

Bajaj Finserv: The board of Bajaj Housing Finance has approved an IPO of Rs 4,000 crore. 

PB Fintech: SEBI issues show cause notice to CEO Yashish Dahiya and it sent a notice over the investment of $2 million by the Dubai unit for a 26.7% stake in YKNP Marketing Management. The company is seeking legal advice on the SEBI notice.

Tata Steel: NCLT approved the Scheme of Amalgamation of Bhubaneshwar Power with the company. 

Alkem Laboratories: The company will make an investment of Rs 30 crore in compulsorily convertible preference shares of HaystackAnalytics. 

Rites: The company has received an order from Tata Steel for Loco Hiring, along with operation and maintenance. 

Tata Chemicals: The UK Court orders Tata Chemicals Europe to pay a GBP 1.1 million fine. The order relates to a safety incident that occurred in 2016. 

Dixon Technologies: The company signed a term sheet with HKC Corp. for a prospective joint venture. 

Muthoot Microfin: The company entered into a co-lending agreement with SBI to empower women entrepreneurs. 

Welspun Enterprises: IOCL shall pay Rs 23.7 crore to the company towards the full and final settlement of claims relating to the Panipat Naphtha Cracker Project. The company filed a suit before the Delhi High Court against IOCL in 2018.

Buzzing Stocks: Vedanta, ICICI Bank, Tata Chemicals,Hero MotoCorp, ITC, HUL, Wipro, HUDCO, IEX, Valor Estate, Andhra Paper

Shares of nine of the 10 listed Adani Group companies ended in the positive territory on Thursday, maintaining their winning run for the second day, with Adani Energy rallying over 5 per cent in line with a recovery in the equity market.

The stock of Adani Energy Solutions jumped 5.10 per cent, Adani Total Gas soared 3.97 per cent, NDTV moved up by 3.70 per cent, Adani Power rallied 3.17 per cent, and Adani Wilmar advanced 3.05 per cent on the BSE.

Shares of ​Heritage Foods​, one of the leading dairy companies, and KCP, which has a cement plant in Amaravati, have been on the rise, in the past few days as N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party emerged victorious in recently-concluded Andhra Pradesh polls.

​After the results were out, the stocks gathered the momentum further. ​Heritage Foods, promoted by Nara Lokesh, son of Naidu’s son, hit an all-time high of ₹601.60 on Thursday. In the last five days, the stock climbed 45.4 per cent. KCP also climbed 8.82 per cent to ₹219.60. In the last 5 days, it jumped 26.65 per cent and on Thursday hit a year high of ₹238.70. 

The Board of Directors of Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd (BHFL) on Thursday approved an initial public offering (IPO) comprising fresh issue of equity shares of ₹10 each aggregating up to ₹4,000 crore and an offer for sale (OFS) of equity shares.

The fresh issue of equity shares is subject to any revisions to such amount as may be permissible under applicable law. The IPO is to meet the mandatory listing conditions pursuant to BHFL’s classification as an NBFC — Upper Layer by RBI.

SEBI on Thursday came out with a framework on “financial disincentives” for market infrastructure institutions that would impose a penalty ranging from ₹1 lakh to ₹1 crore for each instance surveillance lapse during the financial year. 

Penalty for first instance of lapse will vary from ₹1 lakh (if annual revenue of MII is less than ₹300 crore) to ₹25 lakh (if annual revenue is greater than ₹1,000 crore). For second instance, this penalty will vary from ₹2 lakh to ₹50 lakh. For third instance onwards the penalty will vary from ₹4 lakh to ₹1 crore.

An emboldened Opposition on Thursday targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA with the Congress leader and MP Rahul Gandhi demanding a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe into the stock market crash on June 4, the day when the Lok Sabha poll results were announced.

This demand for JPC comes just few days before Modi is set to return for third successive term and take oath as the Prime Minister on June 9 to head a BJP-led coalition government.

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) on Thursday has floated a consultation paper on ‘Revision of National Numbering Plan’ to ensure a structured approach for allocation and utilisation of Telecommunication Identifiers (TIs) resources, in line with international best practices.

Turnover: (NSE + BSE)

Cash Volume: 150441.91 + 9618.88 Total: 160060.79

F&O Volume: 555683.23 + 1354314.54 Total: 1909997.77

Provisional Cash

FII/FPI: NET SELL: -6867.72 

(13969.51 - 20837.23) 

DII: NET BUY: +3718.38 

(17030.3 - 13311.92)

07:00 CHINA Trade Balance (Expected: 70.5B versus Previous: 72.35B) 

10:30 INDIA RBI Monetary Policy (Expected: 6.50% versus Previous: 6.50%) 

14:30 EURO Revised GDP q/q (Expected: 0.3% versus Previous: 0.3%) 

18:00 U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change (Expected:186k versus Previous: 175K) 

18:00 U.S. Unemployment Rate (Expected: 3.9% versus Previous: 3.9%)

09/06/2024: Outcome of European Parliamentary Elections

10/06/2024: China, Hong Kong, Taiwan @ Market Holiday

Here are the intraday supports and resistances for widely traded stocks such as Reliance Industries, ITC, ONGC, Infosys, HDFC Bank, TCS, and SBI

Here’s an interesting stock idea:The stock idea that we have for you today is Kajaria Ceramics. The stock that we have today is Pidilite Industries. It has broken out of a range a couple of days back and looks set to rally from here.

The stock of Pidilite Industries started its latest uptrend in November last year, on the back of the support at ₹2,300. However, after reaching ₹3,050 in April this year, the bulls lost strength. Consequently, Pidilite Industries’ stock was largely moving in a sideways trend i.e., between ₹2,800 and ₹3,050. But on Wednesday, the scrip broke out of ₹3,050, opening the door for further rally.

The exchanges have expanded the promoter definition for companies tapping the market for an initial public offering, said two people in the know.

According to current SEBI regulations, a promoter is someone who controls the affairs of the company or can appoint the majority of directors or is named as such in an offer document. Earlier, founders holding 25 per cent were deemed as promoters by virtue of having negative control and the power to block special resolution.

Dalal Street investors became richer by Rs 21 lakh crore in two days of a sharp rally in the stock market, where the BSE benchmark surged over 4 per cent.

The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 692.27 points or 0.93 per cent to settle at 75,074.51 on Thursday. In intra-day trade, the benchmark soared 915.49 points or 1.23 per cent to 75,297.73.

In two days, the BSE benchmark surged 2,995.46 points or 4.15 per cent after Tuesday’s massive rout.

Thanks to the optimistic trend in equities, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies climbed Rs 21,05,298.11 crore to Rs 4,15,89,003.38 crore (USD 4.98 trillion) in two days. - PTI