Share Market Highlights 08 January 2024: Sensex sheds 671 pts, Nifty closes around 21,500

The company had invested ₹1 crore under its PANKH initiative in Nawgati, a pioneering fuel aggregator startup based in India.

Lupin stock trades at ₹1,382.65 on the NSE, down by 0.49%.

Adani Ports (1.36%); HCL Tech (1.17%); ONGC (0.83%); Power Grid (0.54%); Hero Motocorp (0.49%)

Major losers:

UPL (-3.39%); SBI Life (-2.23%); SBI (-2.17%); Divi’s Lab (-1.83%); Britannia (-1.79%)

Stocks advanced on BSE at 3 pm on January 8, 2024, were 1,919 against 2,027 stocks that declined; 110 stocks remain unchanged. Total stocks traded were 4,056. The number of stocks that recorded a 52-week high was 484, and those that hit a 52-week low was 11.

The company’s board had approved the issue and allotment of 2.40 crore shares to 38 qualified institutional buyers at ₹576 a share, aggregating to ₹1,385.34 crore.

DLF Ltd’s shares were up by 0.81 per cent after the company reported a pre-launch sale of approximately ₹7,200 crore for its upcoming residential project, ‘DLF Privana South’ in Gurugram. The development is situated across 25 acres in Sectors 76 and 77 in Gurugram and consists of 1,113 designed residences.

In order to cater to the needs of investors of securities markets in the state of Tamil Nadu, SEBI along with stock exchanges NSE and BSE has established an “Investor Service Centre” at Madurai.

Natural Gas prices have risen significantly last week, providing some breather for the commodity. The MCX Natural Gas futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell to a low of ₹186.90 per mmBtu in the first half of December last year. The bounce-back from that low ran into a sideways consolidation phase between ₹200 and ₹220 for a couple of weeks. 

DSP Mutual Fund announced the launch of DSP Multicap Fund, an open-ended scheme that offers investors the flexibility to invest across large cap, mid cap and small cap stocks, investment styles and industries. 

It is a SIP recommended fund that offers investors access to opportunities across sectors, style and market cap. With dedicated market cap exposure to mid and small caps along with timely rebalancing, the multicap strategy offers investors better diversification and improvement in performance compared to the Nifty 500. 

The New Fund Offer is open between January 8, 2024 and January 22, 2024.

The IPO comprises a fresh issue of up to 41 lakh equity shares with a face value of Rs. 10/- at book build price.

· To float IPO in the second half of January 2024

· Plans to utilise proceeds for working capital requirements for long-term projects and general corporate purposes.

· Company offers a full range of EPC services, specialising in comprehensive engineering services for electrical infrastructure projects in India and overseas

· Offers its services in several manufacturing industries such as oil & gas, refinery, steel, cement, pharmaceuticals, health care, etc. 

· Company has a strong order book of over 50 major projects worth around Rs. 565 crore that are in various phases of implementation across India and abroad

· Beeline Capital Advisors Private Limited is the Book Running Lead Manager, and Skyline Financial Services Private Limited is the registrar to the issue

Biocon (-2.94%); Granules (-2.43%); Gland Pharma (-2.40%); Divi’s Lab(-1.95%); Glenmark (-1.86%)

.For our coverage HFCs, AuM at Rs3.3trn could see 1.9% QoQ growth compared to 0.9% in Q1’24 and +7.5-9.0% (likely) in case of housing segment for banks. NIM could decline by 20bps QoQ to 3.17% as LICHF could see some moderation in margins. Hence NII may fall by 3.7% QoQ. As policy rates have stabilized, NIM for HFCs could improve in FY24E since asset repricing would be faster as compared to liabilities. Disbursal run-rate of LICHF is the key monitorable especially given weak credit flows in the last few quarters.

Other income might decline by 6% QoQ to Rs1.16bn while opex could rise by 7.3% QoQ to Rs4.75bn. Hence PPoP could dip by 5.9% QoQ to Rs21.9bn. We see a 6bps QoQ decline in provisions to 56bps as CANFIN would see credit costs normalize. PAT may fall by 5.0% QoQ to Rs13.9bn. CANFIN remains our preferred pick in HFCs.

Weak operating results anticipated

Indian Oil & Gas sector’s operating profit is expected to decline by 24% QoQ to Rs861bn mainly on account of weak refining margins of OMCs. Upstream companies like ONGC and OIL India are expected to maintain production volumes and net crude realization of ~US$75/bbl post windfall tax. Similarly, gas realization will remain unchanged QoQ at US$6.5/mmBtu. IGL and MGL’s volumes are expected to grow 9%YoY and 7%YoY, while we build in a 31% YoY volume growth in Gujarat Gas due to remarkable growth in industrial volumes. We expect RIL’s O2C segment to report lower operating profits with decline in refining margins and weak petchem spreads. We build in steady telecom performance (+4%QoQ revenue growth) as we build in 2%QoQ ARPU growth; retail revenue growth is also expected to be steady. ONGC remains our top pick in the sector.

“The Indian oil sector’s Q3 operating profit would have fallen 21% q/q to Rs562bn as OMCs’ performances were hit by inventory losses. ONGC and OIL are expected to report steady results given stable production volumes/realisations. GAIL is likely to report another strong quarter (transmission & LPG earnings) though we factor in lower gas trading earnings q/q. CGDs would report healthy volume growth; absence of price hikes would impact MGL. We prefer BPC and HPC as crude prices are likely to have been stable, and clarity on oil & gas realisation/volume recovery would have driveen ONGC and OIL. We like MGL given much-needed volume recovery expected, which would drive a re-rating”

“Banks under are expected to witness a weak quarter, as core earnings could fall by 7.3% QoQ to Rs463bn (vs +0.1% QoQ in Q2’24), mainly driven by reduction in NIM. Loan growth might come in at 3.8% QoQ (4.3% in Q2FY24), while deposit accretion could be +2.1% QoQ (3.9% last quarter). NIM contraction could moderate this quarter (vs Q2FY24) and we expect NIM to decline by 5bps QoQ (-16bps in Q2’24) to 3.62%. HDFCB, IIB and FB may see better NIM performance. Fees could grow by 3.1% QoQ to Rs333bn while opex may increase by 3.4% QoQ to Rs842bn (seasonality in case of PSU banks). Core PPoP may come in at Rs733bn (-0.4% QoQ). HDFCB, IIB and FB might do better on core PPoP. Led by KCC, gross slippage ratio might see a slight 3bps rise to 1.28% and we expect SBI, HDFCB, ICICIB, AXSB to report higher delinquencies. Banks’ PAT is expected to be Rs524bn (-8.7% QoQ). Among our coverage universe we prefer ICICIB and HDFCB.” 

Contrary to the sequential decline in the PMI Mfg, PMI Services witnessed an uptick. India’s services sector ended the year on a high note, with an uptick in business activity, led by a three-month high new order position.

New orders from abroad continued to grow with Indian service providers seeing higher demand in December from clients based in Australia, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, and South America, the global slowdown notwithstanding. Employment in the sector rose slightly, at a faster rate than in November.

Services firms in India expect the strong demand momentum to carry forward to 2024 coupled with advertising and better customer relationships. The overall degree of business optimism was strong and better than that seen in November. On the prices front, input cost inflation for service providers fell to the lowest in 40 months in December. However, in a sign of improving corporate margins, prices charged to customers rose at a faster pace than the increase in input prices.

With the improved momentum in the PMI Services, the PMI Composite rose but the quarterly average for Q3FY24 was the lowest in the last four quarters.

Bandhan Mutual Fund announced the launch of the Bandhan Multi Asset Allocation Fund, an open-ended scheme that enables investment across diverse asset classes including Indian Equities, International Equities, Arbitrage, Fixed Income, Gold and Silver. 

This new fund will adopt a multi-asset allocation strategy to optimize reward and risk by diversifying investments across various asset classes, each offering unique advantages in terms of growth, stability, and inflation protection. The New Fund Offer (NFO) is set to open on Wednesday, 10 January 2024, and will close on Wednesday, 24 January 2024

Techno Electric & Engineering Company has bagged new orders:

Sterlite Power Transmission Ltd. —₹199 crore order(s)/contract(s); PowerGrid Corporation of India Ltd ₹451 Crore; and REC Power Distribution Company Ltd. ₹1041 Crore 

The stock trades at ₹787.65 on the BSE, down by 1.97%.

Asset Management Companies - Gaurav Jani - Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.

Oct-Dec’23 Earnings Preview – Healthy growth in equity to protect profitability

Industry MAAuM as at Nov’23 stood at Rs48.75trn and equity/debt share was 51%/18%. Equity flows continue to remain strong; excluding NFOs, Oct’23 and Nov’23 combined, saw net flows of Rs394bn compared to Rs424.7bn in Q2FY24. Equity QAAuM growth is expected to be strong for FY24E as closing equity AuM (incl. balanced) has seen healthy YTD growth of 31% as at Nov’23. On the flipside, due to stronger AuM growth equity yields could fall more sharply owing to the TER structure.

We expect AMCs in our coverage to see overall/equity QAAuM growth of 4.1%/9.3% QoQ (vs 7.9%/10.1% in Q2FY24). Equity QAAuM growth for HDFC AMC would be superior to UTI AMC owing to stronger equity performance, while core income for our coverage AMCs could grow by 5.2% QoQ.

​Cressanda Railway Solutions​ has entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire 51% stake in SYN Developers Private Limited. The stock rose by 4.98% on the BSE, trading at ₹25.72.

The stock rose by 1.60% on the BSE, trading at ₹6,814.20.

Huhtamaki India has received penalty demand (₹1,20,000) from the Assistant Commissioner, State Taxes & Excise, Revenue District BBN-Baddi-1, Baddi, Himachal Pradesh on account of generating double E-way Bills on same invoices without cancelling original E-way Bills. 

Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals board has approced buy back of fully paid-up equity shares of face value of ₹10 each, not exceeding 1,55,55,555 equity shares at a price of ₹450 per equity share, payable in cash for an aggregate amount not exceeding ₹700 crore. The stock rises by 2.07% on the NSE, trading at ₹380.50.

The outstanding amounts of the Holdco Notes shall be fully secured through cash balances set aside as part of various reserve accounts securing the Holdco Notes, eight months prior to the maturity. 

Adani Green Energy’s stock is up by 1.16% on the NSE, trading at ₹1,693.45.

The stock rose by 5% on the NSE, trading at ₹1,381.15.

Vinati Organics Limited has subscribed to the additional 2,84,60,000 fully paid-up equity shares of the face value of ₹10 each at par, amounting to ₹28 crore by way of subscription towards the rights issue of Veeral Organics Pvt. Ltd., a Wholly Owned Subsidiary, the shares rank pari-passu to existing Equity Shares of the company. The stock trades at ₹1,729.75 on the NSE, down by 0.63%.

The four new fund offers on thematic schemes have raised Rs 4,259 crore, while Motilal Oswal Small Cap and White Oak Capital Large & Mid-cap funds have raised Rs 1,226 crore and Rs 836 crore taking the total equity NFO inflow to Rs 6,321 crore.

Small cap fund continued to hog the limelight by attracting Rs 3,857 crore (Rs 3,699 crore) followed by thematic and large and mid-cap fund getting inflow of Rs 6,005 crore (Rs 1,965 crore) and Rs 2,339 crore (Rs 1,847 crore).

SIP inflows continued to rise and touched Rs 17,610 crore (Rs 17,073 crore) in December.

The overall asset under management of mutual fund industry touched a new high of Rs 50.78 lakh crore (Rs 49.05 lakh crore).

L&T recently completed the sale of its entire stake in L&T Infrastructure Engineering Limited to STUP Consultants Private Limited.

The company had approved the proposal to infuse funds up to $6.70 million in DVL USA Inc for its expansion plan.

The business activity and operations will be started soon. The stock trades at ₹126.10 on the NSE, down by 1.52%.

Caplin Point Laboratories informed the exchanges about the grant of final approval from USFDA for the Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) Ofloxacin Otic Solution 0.3%, to subsidiary Caplin Steriles Limited. The stock trades flat at ₹1,399.90.

Adani Ports (1.90%); ONGC (0.83%); HCL Tech (0.61%); BPCL (0.53%); Eicher Motors (0.52%)

Major losers: 

UPL (-2.80%); Divi’s Lab (-2.12%); Tata Consumers (-1.91%); Apollo Hospitals (-1.81%); Hindustan Unilever (-1.80%)

Stocks advanced on BSE at 12 noon on January 8, 2024, were 1,830 against 1,994 stocks that declined; 135 stocks remain unchanged. Total stocks traded were 3,959. The number of stocks that recorded a 52-week high was 430, and those that hit a 52-week low was 10.

Sobha (4.14%); Phoenix Mills (3.85%); Prestige Enterprises (1.52%); Lodha (1.36%); DLF (1.24%)

Ashok Leyland Ltd’s shares were up by 0.084 per cent after the company reported an achievement in the calendar year 2023. The company reported its highest-ever sales volume, reaching 1,98,113 units, surpassing its previous record set in 2018.

The shares were up by 0.084 per cent to ₹179.60 at 11:45 am on the BSE.

ACC Ltd, a subsidiary of Ambuja Cements Limited, acquired a 55 per cent stake in Asian Concretes and Cements Private Limited (ACCPL). The enterprise value of the acquisition stands at ₹775 crore, fully funded through internal accruals. The remaining 45 per cent stake in ACCPL was acquired from its existing promoter, resulting in ACC’s complete ownership of ACCPL.

Skipper Ltd board has approved the terms and conditions of the Rights Issue.

Instrument: Partly paid-up equity shares having a face value of ₹ 1 each

1,02,67,021 equity shares of the Company each on partly-paid basis for an amount aggregating to ₹ 1991.80 Million 

Issue Price: ₹194 per Rights Equity Share [including a premium of ₹193).

The stock rises by 4.61% on the NSE, trading at ₹252.

The Bank Nifty January Futures (48,186) is down 0.4 per cent. Immediate supports are at 48,100 and 47,980. A break below 47,980 will be bearish to see 47,800-47,750 during the day.

Resistance is at 48,600. A break above it can take the contract up to 48,900.

The Scheme of Amalgamation amongst Tata Steel Limited and The Tinplate Company of India Limited (‘TCIL’) and their respective shareholders (Scheme of Amalgamation) by the NCLT. 

In accordance with the Scheme of Amalgamation, the Company will issue and allot fully paid-up ordinary equity shares, to those shareholders of TCIL, whose names would appear in the Register of Members on the Record Date i.e. Friday, January 19, 2024, in the ratio of 33 fully paid-up ordinary equity shares of ₹1 each for every 10 fully paid-up ordinary equity shares of ₹10 each held by such members in TCIL. 

Tata Steel stock trades at ₹133.75 on the NSE, up by 0.07%.

Trident (14.62%); Sula (14.52%); Alok Textiles (9.99%); Garware Technical Fibres (8.80%); JBMA (8.13%)

Major losers:

Inox Wind (-7.93%); SPARC (-5.30%); Bandhan Bank (-4.67%); PGEL (-4.61%); Neuland Lab (-4.46%)

Indian equity markets closed with mild gains despite having weak global cues. The benchmark indices remained volatile throughout the day, however it managed to close in green led by information & technology sector stocks. Market participants awaited for inflation data from the euro area and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report for further cues that would set the trajectory of interest rates by European Central bank and U.S. Federal Reserve. Optimisms over domestic economy were boosted following the strong services sector expansion data of Dec 2023.

Bond yields rose following the rise in U.S. Treasury yields which rose above 4% due to positive economic data that caused market participants to reduce their expectations of aggressive rate cuts from the Federal Reserve through 2024.

Yield on the 10-year benchmark paper (7.18% GS 2033) rose by 1 bps to close at 7.23% as compared to the previous close of 7.22%.

Pondy Oxides & Chemicals (20%)

Shyam Century Ferrous (17.82%)

Sula Vineyards (16.66%)

Kriti Nutrients (14.63%)

Amines & Plasticizers (13.56%)

Mphasis (F1 Foundation) has announced the launch of ‘Universal Design and Accessibility Walk for Arcause 4.0’, the fourth edition in a series of explorative journeys of learning and exchanges on foot by Gita, an architect, following successful campaigns in 2022 and 2023. 

Shreeji Translogistics Limited (STL) has signed a new contract with Turkish Airlines Inc. The stock rises by 3.61% on the BSE, trading at ₹58.30.

The Nifty 50 January Futures (21,752) is down 0.2 per cent. Resistance at 21,830 is holding very well. That leaves the bias negative for the Nifty 50 January Futures contract to fall to 21,600 during the day. A break below 21,400 will increase the selling pressure. Such a break can drag the contract down to 21,400 in the coming days.

JSW Utkal Steel Ltd (JUSL), a wholly-owned subsidiary of JSW Steel Ltd had received environmental clearance (EC) for setting up of a greenfield Integrated Steel Plant (ISP) of 13.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) crude steel from the Union Ministry of Environment & Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) which was further re-validated by MoEF&CC in September 2023 with additional and modified EC conditions. 

JSW Steel stock trades at ₹827.55 on the NSE, down by 0.22%.

“We expect pharmaceuticals companies under our coverage to report another strong quarter with EBIDTA growth of 19% YoY (flat QoQ) mainly aided by 1) new launches (gRevlimid, gSpiriva, etc) in US market, 2) steady domestic business and 3) higher margins. We expect the quarter to continue seeing easing of cost pressures which will thereby aid margins YoY. The companies have witnessed slow pick up in flu season which will be offset by steady base business and new launches. On domestic formulation business; volumes offtake in acute and trade generic segments are likely to recover while benefit of price hike in NLEM portfolio and steady growth in chronic portfolio will be seen in few domestic focused companies. Our top picks remain SUNP, JBCP, ERIS and TRP.”

Angel One announced the joining of Anuprita Daga as its Group CISO (Chief Information Security Officer). The stock trades at ₹3,869.70 on the NSE, up by 3.35%.

The rupee appreciated 9 paise to 83.06 against the US dollar in early trade on Monday on the back of positive domestic equity markets and inflow of foreign fund.

However, forex traders said a strong American currency and volatile crude oil prices weighed on the domestic currency.

ONGC announced commencement of “First Oil” production from the deep-water KG-DWN-98/2 Block, situated off the coast of Bay of Bengal. With commencement of this First Oil from ‘M – field’ on 7th January 2024, ONGC is completing Phase 2. The flagship project is on track with final phase of project planned to be completed by June 2024 and then onwards commencement of gradual ramping up to reach planned peak production of 45,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 10 MMSCMD of gas from the deep-water KG-DWN-98/2 Block. 

ONGC stock inched up by 0.69% on the NSE, trading at ₹217.95.

Suraj Estate Developers has utilised a sum of ₹285 Crore from the IPO proceeds towards Repayment/Prepayment of the aggregate outstanding borrowings of the Company and its Subsidiaries, Accord Estates Private Limited, Iconic Property Developers Private Limited and Skyline Realty Private Limited. 

The stock declines by 1.15% on the NSE, trading at ₹348.10.

Dividend

12-Jan-24

INFRATRUST: Income Distribution (InvIT)

15-Jan-24

SUKHJITS: Interim Dividend - Rs. - 8.00

19-Jan-24

HCLTECH: Interim Dividend

TCS: Interim Dividend

IPO

Jyoti CNC Automation: Open: 09-Jan-24; Close: 11-Jan-24

Buyback

Dhampur Sugar Mills: Ex-Date: 17-Jan-24

Bonus

Integra Essentia: Bonus Issue 1:1; Ex-Date: 11-Jan-24

Newgen Software Tech: Bonus Issue 1:1; Ex-Date: 12-Jan-24

Stock Split

Cochin Shipyard: Stock Split From Rs. 10/- to Rs. 5/-; Ex-Date: 10-Jan-24

Franklin Industries: Stock Split From Rs. 10/- to Rs. 1/-; Ex-Date: 11-Jan-24

Trishakti Industries: Stock Split From Rs. 10/- to Rs. 2/-; Ex-Date: 16-Jan-24

Right Issue

Ind Renewable Energy: Ex-Date: 08-Jan-24

Quest Softech (India): Ex-Date: 08-Jan-24

Genpharmasec: Ex-Date: 09-Jan-24

Grasim Industries: Ex-Date: 10-Jan-24

Sharanam Infraproject: Ex-Date: 10-Jan-24

Lloyds Engineering Works: Open: 26-Dec-23; Close: 10-Jan-24

Grasim Industries: Open: 17-Jan-24; Close: 29-Jan-24

Ind Renewable Energy: Open: 18-Jan-24; Close: 29-Jan-24

Latim Metal And Industries: Open: 10-Jan-24; Close: 29-Jan-24

Genpharmasec: Open: 22-Jan-24; Close: 09-Feb-24

“As we end the year in 2023, the fund generated a return of 25.35% in the year as against Nifty which had a 21.1% over the Calendar year.

At Itus, our fund has delivered an IRR since inception (Annualized) of 20.62% (net of fees) (Jan 17 – Dec 2023) as against Nifty which has delivered an IRR (Annualized) of 15.11% over the same period. This healthy outperformance of 5.5% (since inception CAGR) is net of fees and expenses.

In 2023, the fund has seen a churn rate of 20% where we have exited a few positions and reduced our exposure in small caps. Some part of the cash generated has been redeployed in select large caps in pharma, power, and capital goods. We continue to maintain cash across portfolios and be prudent around deployment.

The portfolio has shown a strong growth in earnings in the last year, with the last year’s cash flow growing at 19.2% on a portfolio basis. The Return on capital has been consistent at 21% and we expect this trend to continue within the portfolio. We do not run a benchmark-based fund at Itus, which means, we will deviate significantly from the index and sector weights and invest in businesses where we find growth and the ability to grow market share – with this regard, the portfolio continues to be underweight financial.”

Top gainers on the NSE at 9:30 am:

BPCL (1.92%); Tata Steel (1.42%); Eicher Motors (1.20%); ONGC (0.95%); Bharti Airtel (0.90%)

Major losers:

UPL (-1.25%); Hindustan Unilever (-1%); Bajaj Finance (-0.89%); Tata Consumers (-0.82%); TCS (-0.72%)

On the global front, Wall Street is coming off its first losing week as mega-cap tech stocks such as Apple underperformed, and Treasury yields rose. In the US, market participants are now turning their attention to the upcoming inflation data and significant bank earnings set to be released later in the week. Meanwhile, the Asian markets fell today after a surprise jump in US non-farm payrolls saw markets rethink expectations for early interest rate cuts, with the focus now turning to a string of key inflation readings this week. 

On the commodity front, Oil prices gained on Friday, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepared to visit the Middle East to try and prevent the Israel-Gaza conflict from widening. 

Over the weekend, China announced sanctions on five US defence-related companies in response to sanctions on Chinese companies and arms sales to Taiwan. 

Nity50 has supports at 21650-21600-21550 and resistances at 21720-21800-21830.

ACC Limited, subsidiary of Ambuja Cements Limited, announced successful acquisition of the remaining 55% stake in Asian Concretes and Cements Private Limited (ACCPL) from its existing promoter at an Enterprise Value of ₹775 crore, resulting in entire ownership of ACCPL. The EV includes Cash & Cash Equivalent of ₹35 crore.

Crude oil futures traded lower on Monday morning following the price cuts by Saudi Arabia. At 9.18 am on Monday, March Brent oil futures were at $77.91, down by 1.08 per cent; and February crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $72.98, down by 1.12 per cent. January crude oil futures were trading at ₹6073 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) in the initial trading hour of Monday morning against the previous close of ₹6128, down by 0.90 per cent; and February futures were trading at ₹6108 as against the previous close of ₹6161, down by 0.86 per cent.

DLF announced pre-formal launch sales of approximately ₹7,200 crore for its latest luxury residential development, DLF Privana South in Gurugram. Spread across about 25 acres (about 10 hectares) in Sectors 76 and 77, Gurugram, this luxury residential offering by DLF was sold out within 72 hours, in its pre-launch phase.

On Monday, India’s leading indices, the Sensex and Nifty, began positively, with the 30-share BSE Sensex rising 81.20 points to reach 72,107.34 in early trading. The NSE Nifty also saw an increase, gaining 20.65 points to hit 21,731.45. 

According to analysts, bulls now lack strength as the market already discounts all the positives. According to analysts, corporate results and global trends will keep the market active, and with mid-and small-cap stocks turning expensive on the valuation front, the focus will shift to large-cap stocks.

Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd, said: “As valuations are getting expensive, investors are taking exposure to select frontline stocks with focus shifting to corporate earnings season.”

VK Vijayakumar of Geojit Financial Services noted December’s market surge aligned with FPI inflows hitting Rs 66,134 crores. 2023 saw Rs 1,71,106 crores FPI flows due to declining US bond yields. He anticipates further FPI investments in 2024, expecting a rise in debt inflows, potentially accelerating indices with a focus on large-caps.

Arvinder Singh Nanda, Senior Vice President, Master Capital Services Ltd, said: The market will react to the domestic and global macroeconomic data, global bond yield, crude oil inventories, movement of the dollar index, and FII and DII investment activities.

However, experts said the underlying tone remains strong, thanks to India’s robust economic activity.

On GDP numbers, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research and Outreach, ICRA Ltd.. “The Advance Estimates released by the NSO peg GDP growth in FY2024 at 7.3%, much higher than our estimate of 6.5%. The NSO expects the GDP growth to moderate to 7.0% in H2 FY2024 from 7.7% in H1 FY2024. Surprisingly, the estimated GVA growth of 6.9% for FY2024 implies that growth in this metric has been assumed at 6.2% in H2, significantly lower than the imputed GDP number for this period.

“In our view, the growth assumed for H2 FY2024 is quite high, given the tepid outlook for agriculture amidst the weak kharif output and ongoing lag in rabi sowing, as well as the feared temporary slowdown in capex ahead of the General Elections. In fact, the GoI’s capex declined by 8.8% YoY during October-November 2023 after rising by 43.1% in H1 FY2024,” she added.

Shrey Jain, Founder and CEO SAS Online - India’s Deep Discount Broker Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the Nifty will trade within the range of 21,500 to 21,850 in the upcoming trading sessions. As for the bank Nifty, a short-term perspective suggests an upside target of 49,500.

Despite the index reflecting a lack of enthusiasm due to neutral domestic sentiments, there is a discernible shift in the mood toward individual stocks as the market approaches the results season.

ONGC: Company has started first oil production from the KG-DWN-98/2 block.

JSW Steel: JSW Utkal Steel receives environmental clearance for setting up of a greenfield Integrated Steel Plant of 13.2 MTPA crude steel

JK Cement: Wholly Owned Subsidiary JK Maxx Paints Acquires remaining 20% stake of Acro Paints for Rs 53.31 Crores 

Oil India: Board Approves Incorporation of a Wholly Owned Subsidiary of the Company for Green Energy Business 

Union Bank: Domestic Deposits Up 3.05% QoQ, Domestic Advances Up 5.51% QoQ 

Godrej CP: Organic business delivered steady underlying volume growth of mid-single digit 

Narayana Hrudalaya: Company’s wholly owned subsidiary Narayana Health Insurance granted License by IRDA 

Titan: Registered Revenue Growth of 22% YoY 

Star Health: December Premium up 14% YoY.

NIACL: December Premium up 14% YoY. 

ICICI Lombard: December Premium up 20% YoY. 

Recently-listed IREDA, Cello_World, Honasa_Consumer_ and Signature_Global are among the top contenders likely to make it to the MSCI Smallcap index.

Bajaj Auto: Board To Consider Buyback On January 8, Monday. 

Chambal: Board To Consider Buyback On January 8, Monday 

Cipla: Company signs JV pact with Kemwell Biopharma UK & MNI Ventures, Mauritius for incorporation of a joint venture company in USA. 

Satin Credit: Enters into co-lending agreement with Karnataka Bank

FIEM: To consider and approve /recommend issuance of Bonus Shares 

Cupid: Along with Results Board To Consider Stock Split & Bonus Issue of Shares on 23rd January. 

Jupiter Wagons: Company has received a contract worth Rs 100 crore from one of the leading automobile manufacturers for the manufacturing and supply

TVS Motor: Signs MoU with Government of Tamil Nadu to invest ₹5,000 crore in five years. 

REC, RVNL: Sign Memorandum of Understanding to finance up to Rs 35,000 crore for infrastructure projects. 

Bank Baroda: Domestic Deposits Down 0.62% QoQ, Domestic Advances Up 3.18% QoQ 

Godrej Ind: Signs a Non-binding MoU with the Government of Gujarat for investment upto Rs 600 crore 

Medplus: Gets Order For Suspension Of Drug Licence For 6 Days For Store located at Shankarayapally Jadcherla 

Shreyas Shipping: Company’s vessel M.V. SSL Brahmaputra reported fire in the Engine Room 

M&M: Zoomcar Inc ceased to be an associate company, following the completion of a merger between Zoomcar Inc

Shyam Metaliks: Board approves issue of 2.4 Crore Shares to 38 Qualified Institutional Buyers at Rs 576/ Share 

Federal Bank: RBI asks Bank to submit a fresh proposal containing a panel of at least 2 fresh names for appointment as MD & CEO of the Bank 

Tata Steel: India Production Volume at 5.32 Million Tons, Up 6.4% YoY & 6% QoQ 

Adani Wilmar: Standalone sales declined 15% year-on-year, volumes increased by 6% year-on-year. 

Dr Reddy: Company recalls over 8,000 bottles of generic drug in US due to packaging error

NTPC: Company gets tax demand order of Rs 41.8 cr from Bihar GST department

Nykaa: There Has Been Some Impact On Discretionary Consumption Due To Short-term Pressures.

Marico: Domestic volumes grew in low single digits on a YoY basis

Beauty and fashion retailer Nykaa has said that the combined net sales value of all its businesses is seen growing at low to mid-twenties in the December quarter.

1)Brent Crude Oil: $74.79-$79.41 (Per barrel)

2)WTI Crude Oil: $69.28-$74.24 (Per barrel)

3)Gold: INR 6,327-INR 6,409 24 Carat (1 Gram)

4)Silver: INR 76,600-INR 78,900 (1 KG)

•Fixed Income

The New 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.18 2033 traded between 7.17% - 7.23% during this week

Old 10-Year Benchmark GOI 7.26 2033 traded between 7.22% – 7.28% during this week, tracking movement in Crude Oil, Currency, US Treasury Yields and US Job Data.

•Auction Highlights:

RBI conducted the Auction for G-sec, SDL and T-Bill for the aggregated amount of INR 34,000 Crore, INR 16,000 Crore and INR 27,000 Crore respectively.

G-sec Cutoff:

7.32% GS 2030 (100.66/7.1937%)

7.18% GS 2037 (98.51/7.3550%)

7.25% GS 2063 (97.12/7.4773%) 

SDL Cutoff: 

03 Years: GJ 7.43%

04 Years: GJ 7.47%

08 Years: AP 7.74%

10 Years: KR 7.74%, RJ 7.74%

11 Years: KR 7.73%

12 Years: AP 7.74%

13 Years: PN 7.78%

14 Years: PN 7.79%

15 Years: BH 7.73%

19 Years: AP 7.70%

T-Bill Cutoff:

091 Days: INR 8000 Crore 98.2997/ 6.9378%

182 Days: INR 10000 Crore 96.5576/ 7.1498%

364 Days: INR 9000 Crore 93.3653/ 7.1257%

•US Treasury Yield:

1)US 2 Years Treasury: 4.25%-4.49%

2)US 5 Years Treasury: 3.84%-4.09%

3)US 10 Years Treasury: 3.86%-4.10%

AAA 5 Years Private Bond traded between 7.60%-7.62% this week.

AAA 10 Years Private Bond traded between 7.62%-7.64% this week.

•New Issuances:

L AND T FINANCE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Ratings: AAA/stable by CRISIL & ICRA

Issue Size: 500 + 0 Cr

Maturity Date: 04/01/2027

Allocated 500 Crs at 8.15%

NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT

Ratings: AAA/ Stable by IND Rating & ICRA

Issue Size: 2000+3000 Crs

Maturity Date: 15/03/2027

Allocated 4990 Crs at 7.80%

SHRIRAM FINANCE LIMITED

Ratings: AA+/ Stable by IND Rating & CRISIL

Issue Size: 50 + 200 Crs

Maturity Date: 05/01/2034

Allocated 55 Crs at 8.7421%

DATA INFRASTRUCTURE TRUST

Ratings: AAA/ by CRISIL 

Issue Size: 320 + 0 Crs

Maturity Date: 18/12/2026

Allocated 320 Crs at 8.40%

SHREE RENUKA SUGARS LIMITED

Ratings: A/ by IND

Issue Size: 285 + 0 Cr

Maturity Date: 04/01/2029

Allocated 285 Crs at 9.40%

HERO FINCORP LIMITED

Ratings: AA+/Stable by CRISIL & ICRA

Issue Size: 50 + 100 Crs

Maturity Date: 04/01/2027

Allocated 55 Crs at 9.00%

1)US Initial Jobless Claims were reported lower than expected at 202K vs the consensus of 216K for the week ending on December 30.

2)The federal government’s gross national debt has surpassed $34 trillion, a record high. It highlights the coming political and economic challenges to improve America’s balance sheet in the coming years.

3)The US Federal Reserve officials seemed convinced that inflation was coming under control, with “upside risks” diminished, while almost all participants indicated a lower target range for the federal funds rate by the end of 2024, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting held on December 12-13.

4)Private sector employment in the US rose by 164,000 in December and annual pay was up 5.4%, the data published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Thursday. This reading followed the 101,000 (revised from 103,000) increase recorded in November and came in better than the market expectation of 115,000.

5)JOLTs Job Openings reported by the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics came in at 8.75M, below the expected 8.85M.

6)Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 216,000 in December, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading came in much higher than the market expectation of 170,000. Meanwhile, November’s increase of 199,000 got revised lower to 173,000. Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.7% and the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, climbed to 4.1% from 3.9% in November. 

7)The S&P Global US Composite PMI came in at 50.9 in December 2023, little-changed from the initial projection of 51.0 and November’s 50.7. 

8)The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US increased to 47.4 in December 2023 from 46.7 in November, better than market forecasts of 47.1. The figure is a measure of the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers.

9)Business activity in the US service sector continued to expand in December, albeit at a softer pace than November, with the ISM Services PMI declining to 50.6 from 52.7. This reading came in below the market expectation of 52.6. Further details of the survey showed that the Prices Paid Index, the inflation component, edged slightly lower to 57.4 from 58.3, while the Employment Index dropped sharply to 43.3 from 50.7. Finally, the New Orders Index retreated to 52.8 from 55.5.

10)The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index eased from 55.8 in November to 46.9 in December, below the market consensus of 51.0.

11)Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI remained unchanged at 47.6 in December compared to November, while the Services PMI stood at 48.8 from higher 48.7.

12)Eurozone Headline inflation rose to 2.9% y/y in Dec ‘23, up from 2.4% y/y in Nov ’23 - in line with Bloomberg consensus at 2.9% y/y but probably surprising a bit to the upside after yesterday’s German and French prints.

Core inflation dropped to 3.4% y/y – also in line with expectations, down from 3.6% y/y in Nov. Core services prices were unchanged at 4.0% y/y while core goods prices dropped to 2.5% y/y.

13)UK S&P Global Composite PMI Final rose to 52.1 in December, from 50.7 in the previous month, while the Services PMI Final rose to 53.4 in December from 50.9 in November.

14)Construction PMI in the United Kingdom increased to 46.80 points in December from 45.50 points in November of 2023. Construction PMI in the United Kingdom is expected to be 50.50 points by the end of this quarter.

15)S&P Global EU index was reported at 44.4, slightly better than the previous 44.2. In the UK, manufacturing output resulted at 46.2, worsening from the previous 46.4 and missing expectations.

16)Germany’s employment data showed that the unemployment rate stood pat at 5.9%, as estimated by economists polled by Reuters.

17)Japan Jibun Bank services PMI rose to 51.5 in December compared to 50.8 in November, while composite PMI came at 50.0 higher than 49.6.

18)The China Caixin services purchasing managers’ index (PMI), a private gauge of the country’s service sector, rose to 52.9 in December, increasing 1.4 percentage points over the previous month and hitting the highest level in the past five months, according to a private survey released on Thursday.

19)China’s official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at its third straight month of contraction at 49.0 in December from the previous reading of 49.4. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI arrived at 50.4 in December versus 50.2 in November, weaker than the estimation .

1)India’s foreign exchange reserves ballooned by $2.759 billion to touch $623.20 billion for the week ending on December 29, revealed the latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday.

2)Central Bank of India has reported a 14.91 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in its gross advances at Rs 2.4 trillion at the end of December 2023 (Q3FY24), up from Rs 2.08 trillion a year ago.

3)The Indian economy is expected to grow by 7,3% in the current financial year, according to the first advance estimate released by the National Statistical Office. This is higher than the previous government forecast of around 7%, which was due to the Reserve Bank of India’s revision of its GDP estimates.

4)Investments by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) in debt instruments turned positive in 2023 after three years due to attractive yields and the upcoming inclusion of Indian bonds in JPMorgan’s index, experts said. FPI investment in debt stood at Rs 68,663 crore in 2023 compared to Rs 15,911 crore of outflows in 2022, according to data from the National Securities Depository Ltd.

5)According to the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, India’s manufacturing PMI fell to 54.9 in December from 56 in November and 55.5 in October. The December value is the lowest since October 2022, when the reading came in at 55.3.

6)UPI numbers in 2023 touched a new high with cumulative volume at 117.6 billion and value at Rs 183 trillion, up 59 per cent and 45 per cent compared to 2022.

7)The Reserve Bank of India has tweaked norms for the issuance of commercial papers (CPs) and non-convertible debentures (NCDs) of up to one year to regulate short-term investments and ensure transparency in the market.

One of the key changes, slated to take effect from April 1 this year, was that the guidelines mandate issuers to mention the exact end use of the funds raised through these instruments, excluding financing for current assets and operating expenses. The settlement period was capped at T+4, which means the transactions need to be settled within four days from the trade date. Individuals and Hindu Undivided Families (HUF) were restricted to investing a maximum of 25 per cent of their total income. The guidelines specify that redemptions (repayment of the invested amount) need to be made before 3 pm on the maturity date.

8)Insurance companies have been granted permission by their regulator to invest in infrastructure debt funds (IDF) of non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). This decision follows a recent review of the regulatory framework for IDF-NBFCs by the Reserve Bank of India, assigning these funds a more significant role in financing infrastructure projects. Previously, insurers were permitted to invest in IDFs backed by the central government on a case-by-case basis.

9)Goods and services tax (GST) collection in December declined to a three-month low due to economic activities winding down after Diwali but remained elevated at Rs 1.65 trillion. The growth rate year-on-year fell to a three-month low of 10.3 percent over Rs 1.49 trillion in December 2022-23.

10)Foreign portfolio investors net bought Indian equities, which includes both primary and secondary markets, worth Rs 1.77 lakh crore in 2023. This was the highest-ever inflow from FPIs in history, in rupee terms.

11)Jet fuel or ATF prices were slashed by 4 per cent on Monday, marking the third consecutive monthly reduction in prices. In contrast, the price for commercial cooking gas (LPG) was reduced marginally by Rs 1.50 per 19-kg cylinder, keeping in line with international benchmarks.

12)As the central government prepares for the interim budget for the financial year 2024-25 (FY25), insiders familiar with the deliberations suggest that fiscal discipline will take precedence over populist spending or incentives in the run-up to the general elections in the summer, according to The Economic Times (ET).

13)On 03 January, 2024, REC inked an initial pact with Bank of Baroda (BoB) to jointly offer finance for power, infrastructure and logistics projects in India. The company signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the presence of senior representatives from both the organisations.

14)India’s fiscal deficit for the first eight months of this fiscal year through November stood at 9.07 lakh crore rupees, or 50.7% of annual estimates, government data showed today. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 58.9% reported in the comparable year-earlier period.

15)Retail inflation for industrial workers rose marginally to 4.98 per cent in November against 4.45 per cent seen a month earlier in October this year, owing to surging prices of certain food items, data from the labour ministry revealed.

Suraj Estate Developers said that in accordance with the objects of the public issue the company has utilised Rs 285 Crores from the IPO proceeds towards repayment of borrowings of the Company and its Subsidiaries, Accord Estates, Iconic Property Developers and Skyline Realty.

Signature Global’s pre-sales in the December quarter rose 47.4% seqquentially to Rs 1262.7 crore from selling 1179 units in the quarter. Its collecitons in the same quarter tose 46% sequentially to Rs 769 crore. Its net debt at the end of the quarter stood at Rs 835.5 crore.

The real estate developer said that it achieved its best ever pre-sales in the first nine months of F24 at Rs 3124 crore with growth of 41.4% from a year earlier. iIt said it has planned significant launches in the current quarter . 

Company expects collections for FY24 to be significantly higher than FY23.

We anticipate demand for wood panel companies to improve in Q3FY24. The Plywood segment is likely to log a mid-single-digit YoY growth, while the MDF segment would register low double-digit volume growth in Q3FY24. Timber prices remain largely stable in the North, albeit staying elevated in the South. In general, we estimate sequential margin improvement (in the range of 60-70bps) for our coverage companies. With implementation of BIS norms w.e.f. Feb-24, MDF imports are likely to slow down; the implementation will also help market-share gains from the low-end plywood segment. Besides, growing possibility of reduction in timber prices, especially from FY26E, with rise in plantations in the past few years is likely to partially address margin concerns in the sector. We continue to favor Century Ply and Greenpanel Industries in the wood panel space, given their leadership position, strong brand patronage, growth visibility and healthy balance sheet. We will soon review our estimate and target price for our coverage stocks.

The third quarter witnessed healthy demand across the segments, as volumes are expected to grow 18% YoY. The 2Ws outperformed other segments and is likely to rise ~20% YoY. Volumes for 3Ws, PV, and CV are likely to improve ~15%, 12%, and 3% YoY, respectively, while the same should decline 4% YoY for tractors. Overall exports are anticipated to recover gradually as the supply chain situation improves further, followed by improving macro outlook in key geographies.

- Commodity prices have remained favorable over the last few quarters. Inflationary pressures peaked in 3QFY23, following which, prices corrected for most of the commodities. Despite a slight increase in some of the RM prices sequentially, we expect gross margin to improve ~100bp YoY for our OEM coverage universe in 3QFY24.

- We estimate EBITDA margin to improve YoY for the seventh successive quarter, with a 160bp YoY gain (+40bp QoQ) for our Auto OEM Universe (ex-JLR). This will be driven by better gross margin, cost efficiencies, and operating leverage. The benefit of healthy growth in underlying industries coupled with cost efficiencies should also result in strong earnings growth for our Ancillary coverage during the quarter.

- There has not been any material change in the FY24 earnings estimate for our coverage universe. We are already witnessing a reversal in demand patterns, especially in the 2Ws, wherein we anticipate a high growth potential. As compared to other categories, 2Ws have a relatively better scope for growth over FY23-26E. On the other hand, we turn cautious about the PV growth outlook due to a slowdown in demand trends and a high base

We have a REDUCE call on Marico due to its inability to drive structural growth in the domestic business; however, better margin prospects have been aiding double-digit earnings growth. Consol. revenue is likely to see a 1% dip with a 1% drop in India business (~1.5% volume growth) and flat international sales. In the domestic business, supply-chain issues continue to mar performance, while in the international business, weak macros are hurting performance. Sustained supply-chain hiccups in the domestic business are bothering, given lower rural and general trade dependence. Consol. EBITDA margin delivery is likely to be strong (>225bps to 20.7%), which will aid double-digit EBITDA (>11% YoY) and earnings (>10%) growth YoY. We maintain REDUCE with Sep-24 TP of Rs570, based on 42x its P/E (in-line with its last 5yr avg. fwd. P/E)

PAT remains strong but demand slows

Combined PAT at INR 17.6bn in Q3FY24E

We expect our aviation coverage universe – InterGlobe Aviation (INDIGO IN) and SpiceJet (SJET IN) – to report a combined adjusted PAT of INR 17.6bn in Q3FY24E vs INR 4.2bn in Q2FY24 and INR 22.3bn in Q3FY23. As per Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) data, Q3FY24 domestic demand was up 9% YoY while domestic capacity was up ~11% YoY, which led to a 2% fall in airfare. FY25 may continue to see robust demand growth of 15% if airlines keep airfares under check, but competition comes from 1) INR 22.5bn equity infusion in SJET, 2) interest shown by three bidders, including SJET, to revive the grounded GoFirst (Not Listed) airline, 3) pilot shortage issues behind for Akasa Air (Not Listed), and 4) capacity growth by Tata Group airlines.

V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services.

“The sharp up move in the market in December coincided with the surge in FPI inflows during the month which stood at Rs 58372 crores. Including the investment through the primary market and others the December FPI inflows stood at Rs 66134 crores. The last two months of 2023 has witnessed big investment by FPIs thanks to the sharp decline in US bond yields and declining dollar. FPI inflows which were negative in the 3 months before December have sharply turned positive in December. The total FPI flows for 2023 stood at Rs 171106 crores (Source: NSDL). In December, FPIs were big buyers in financial services and also in IT. FPIs also bought in sectors like autos, capital goods, oil and gas and telecom. 

Since 2024 is expected to witness further declines in U.S. interest rates, FPIs are likely to increase their purchases in 2024 too, particularly in the early months of 2024 in the run up to the General elections. FPI inflows into debt will also see acceleration in 2024. 

FPI inflows can help accelerate the uptrend in the main bench mark indices since bulk of the FPI flows will be into large-caps.”

Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd. on Market outlook

All eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year (Q3 FY24), spanning from November to December. The anticipation is particularly high for India’s IT giants. TCS and Infosys released their Q3 results on January 11th, followed by HCL Tech and Wipro on the 12th. Market participants will be keeping an eye on the movement of the rupee against the dollar and crude oil prices. Investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) will also be monitored.

The Nifty is consolidating in the 21500–21800 range with intraday volatility. If it slips below 21500, then the 20-DMA of 21400 will be immediate support; only below this can we expect any meaningful profit booking. If it manages to sustain above the 21800 mark, then 22000 and 22200 will be the next target levels.

Banknifty is respecting its 20-DMA around the 47800 mark. On the upside, 48500–48800 is acting as an immediate supply zone; above this, we can expect a move towards the 49500–50000 level. If it slips below 20-DMA, then 47000 will be the key support level.

FII’s long exposure in index futures remains at 67%, accompanied by a put-call ratio of 1.08, both indicating a neutral to positive market sentiment.

After an exceptional performance in Q2FY24, box office collections moderated in Q3, with a strong showing by select movies in the second half of the quarter. A few big-budget Bollywood movies did well in the quarter, ably supported by select regional movies, while Hollywood fell short of the mark this quarter. For broadcasters, growth is likely to be impacted by the Cricket World Cup in the first half of the quarter which resulted in diversion of advertising spends. However, the festive season should aid some sequential growth. Subscription revenue should stay stable.

Insurance stocks are currently exposed to a motley of divergent influences, including: 1) moderating growth and margin of life insurers in the previous as well as the upcoming quarter; 2) constant noise around regulatory changes, including surrender charges, mis-selling and claims repudiation; 3) besides the near-term uncertainty, the structural growth story of Insurance in India—led by rising affluence and the lack of protection & longevity cover—being very much intact; and 4) the sector’s attractive valuation (against the backdrop of its own historical trend and relative to other sectors) supporting share prices. We continue to prefer players with strong brand, distribution & cost advantages, which give them the right to grow profitably. We maintain our preference for SBILIFE (Buy), HDFCLIFE (Add), and ICICIGI (Add). LICI (Buy) is our valuation pick.

We expect healthy top-line growth for our coverage companies in Q3FY23 buoyed by festive season demand (the entire season captured in Q3 this year against being spread across Q2-Q3 in last FY) with integrated logistics players like Delhivery benefitting from sector tailwinds in both B2C and B2B express markets. Data on freight movement via road was supported by channel checks; however, it tempers down expectations laid by the managements after an uptick seen in volumes in Oct-23 for >15% YoY volume growth in Q3. Margins should see a sequential uptick in a benign fuel price environment and operating leverage kicking in. Management commentary on volume recovery remains critical post a muted H1FY24 performance. We roll forward our target prices to Dec-24 and retain our previous ratings on Delhivery (BUY; TP: Rs470/share), VRL Logistics (BUY; TP: Rs 875/share), TCI Express (ADD; TP: Rs1,550/share), and Blue Dart Express (REDUCE; TP: Rs7,350/share).

In Q3FY24, we expect Bharti Airtel and Jio Mobile to register revenue growth of 2.5-3% QoQ. RJio will benefit from industry-leading subscriber addition in Q3 (10.5mn), aided by competitive pricing of its plans, while Airtel will benefit from the mix of subscriber addition and conversion of 2G subscribers (to 4G). Vi is likely to lose subscribers. Bharti’s focus on rural and 5G rollout is likely to aid Indus’s tower/tenancy addition. For Indus Towers, the trajectory of receivables/provisioning remains the key monitorable. Tata Communications (TCom) is likely to maintain revenue growth in data, while its margin may come under pressure post Kaleyra’s acquisition.

Given the weak winter and slow recovery in rural demand, Q3FY24 is likely to be lackluster for FMCG plays, from the topline viewpoint. We expect competition from small players in select categories to ebb, as large players have embarked on corrective measures. The international show is likely to be better, on a constant currency basis, though currency will limit reported growth. Gross margin is likely to expand YoY, but EBITDA margin expansion would be limited due to weak operating leverage and higher A&P spends. In India business, we see a low-to-mid single-digit volume growth. Overall, in our coverage, Colgate is likely to report better results (sales/earnings growth at 7%/21%), while HUL (sales/earnings growth at 3%/1%) and GCPL (sales/earnings growth at +1%/-1%) would be the weakest. Dabur (+9%, sales driven) and Marico (+10%, margin driven) are likely to clock better earnings growth. Our report highlights the rollover of our TP to Dec-24 from Sep-24 earlier. We downgrade our rating for Britannia to REDUCE (from Add) and GCPL to ADD (from Buy). We prefer Dabur, ITC, and Emami, while avoiding Colgate

Titan Company has registered Revenue growth of 22% YoY in Q3FY24. A total of 90 stores were added in this period, taking the group’s retail presence to 2,949 stores.

Union Bank of India has announced the business update for period ended December 31, 2023. The total Business of the bank crossed Rs. 20.68 trillion. Total Business of the bank grew by 10.67% YoY. Total Advances of the bank grew by 11.44 % YoY and 5.76% QoQ to Rs. 8.96 trillion as of 31st December 2023. Total Deposits of the bank grew by 10.09 % YoY and 3.06 % QoQ to Rs. 11.72 trillion as of 31st December 2023. Total Domestic RAM Advances of the bank grew by 13.84 % YoY and 4.31% QoQ to Rs. 4.88 trillion as of 31st December2023.

​Adani Wilmar,​ during the quarter ended December 2023, recorded overall volume growth of 6 per cent, however, lower pricing of edible oils in line with the fall in the cost of raw materials (crude edible oils), resulted in a revenue decline of 15 per cent YoY. In both Oil and Foods, branded products account for around 80 per cent of the business and have been growing at a faster rate. With the easing of the global edible oil prices, our branded edible oils volume growth has been strong during the year, with 4 per cent YoY growth during the quarter and 16% YoY growth in 9M FY’24. However, for the overall edible oils segment, volume stayed flat YoY in Q3 FY’24 due to subdued demand from institutional clients and registered a growth of 9% YoY in 9M FY’24.

Bank of Baroda has announced the business update for the period ended December 31, 2023 (Q3 FY2024). As of 31st December 2023, Global Business of Bank of Baroda grew by 10.68% YoY to ₹22.95 trillion. Global Advances of the bank grew by 13.59% YoY to ₹ 10.49 trillion as of 31st December 2023. Global Deposits of the bank grew by 8.34% YoY to ₹ 12.45 trillion as of 31st December 2023. The Bank shed Bulk Deposits (including CD) of ₹14,285 Crores during the Quarter from a cost optimisation perspective, but for which, the Bank’s Deposit and Total Business growth would have been higher.

Hind Rectifiers Limited had earlier announced regarding the Voluntary Retirement Scheme of the Company. Pursuant to the Scheme, 75 employees have opted to accept the Scheme and total compensation paid to them is ₹6.99 crore.

Gold and silver price saw a dip last week. In terms of dollars, the former lost 0.9 per cent to end at $2,044.2 per ounce, whereas the latter was down 2.9 per cent and closed at $23.1 per ounce.

On the MCX, gold futures depreciated 1 per cent to wrap up the week at ₹62,557 (per 10 gram); silver futures declined 2.5 per cent to end at ₹72,587 (per kg).

The stock of Bajaj Finance (₹7,711.15) is ruling at a crucial level. It finds an immediate support at ₹7,618 and the major one at ₹7,390. A close below the latter will alter current bullish view on the stock.

Crude oil prices appreciated last week. Brent crude oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) gained 2.3 per cent as it closed at $78.8 per barrel. Crude oil futures on the MCX was up 2 per cent by ending the week at ₹6,128 a barrel.

In line with the government’s target of reaching close to 500 GW of installed generation capacity from renewable energy sources by 2030, power advisory body Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has estimated investments to the tune of ₹2.4-lakh crore in the inter-state power transmission space over the next 7-8 years. Power transmission PSU, Power Grid Corp (PGCIL), appears to be among the best-placed to tap the opportunity in the Indian transmission space.

It was a volatile beginning for the New Year 2024 for the Indian stock markets. The Indian benchmark indices began the new year on a weak note by falling in the first half of the week. In the second half, they managed to recover and closed the week marginally lower. The resistances on the Nifty and Nifty Bank indices are holding very well. 

Trading at 60 times trailing PE as against average since listing of around 23.5 times, the RailTel stock, at ₹356, has more than adequately factored best-case scenarios

Nifty 50 (21,711) and Bank Nifty (48,159) witnessed a muted ending last week as they were down 0.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively. The dip in the first half was covered up in the second half leading to a flat ending. Nevertheless, the broader uptrend remains valid. Here, we analyse the futures and options (F&O) data to get a sense of the derivative market participants’ expectations.

• BALRAMCHIN 

• CHAMBALFERT 

• DELTACORP 

• ESCORTS 

• GNFC 

• INDIACEM 

• IEX 

• NALCO 

• PEL 

• SAIL 

• ZEEL

In Calendar 2023, the BSE Capital Goods index gained nearly 66 per cent beating the broad benchmark Sensex by more than 40 per cent with stocks such as Suzlon, RVNL and BHEL among the top performers. Last year, this was the best performing sectoral index after BSE Auto.

The US dollar index snapped its three-week fall last week. The index made a strong recovery and rose over a per cent last week. It has closed the week at 102.41. The US 10Yr Treasury yield also witnessed a strong bounce back last week. The yield rose above the psychological 4 per cent mark. It touched a high if 4.1 per cent on Friday before closing the week at 4.04 per cent.

Unlike other advanced economies that hiked interest rates by 400-550 basis points over 2022-23 to fight massive consumer price inflation, the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) increased the repo by only 250 points. And the last rate hike by India’s Central Bank was in February 2023.

To be in a situation where everything is working in one’s favour is everyone’s dream. But those who have seen market cycles know that it does not take much for the tide to turn. This somewhat sums up the state of the equity markets as we look at what is in store for 2024.

About 47 per cent of the ₹1,000 crore that Rajkot-based Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd plans to raise through its proposed IPO will be used to service existing debt, said Parakramsinh Jadeja, Chairman and Managing Director of the company on Friday.

“The IPO is a fresh issue. Out of the ₹1,000 crore we plan to raise, close to ₹475 crore we plan to use in repaying our debt. An additional ₹365 crore will be used to fulfil our working capital requirements and the rest will be used in investing in future developments which includes opportunities in EMS (Electronic Manufacturing Services) and aerospace and defence sectors,” Jadeja said while addressing media persons in Ahmedabad.

Global power shifts, with India being an undisputed beneficiary of the changing power dynamics, is expected to be one among the five major investment themes that are expected to play out in 2024, according to researchers at MSCI.

Macroeconomics with interest rates as the overriding element will obviously dominate short-term concerns but other strategic shifts such as an acceleration in the growth of private credit, ongoing global power shifts, and the widespread deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) will determine the investments in the new year, said MSCI’s Chief Research Officer Ashley Lester in a blog post ‘Investment Trends in Focus: Five Key Themes for 2024.’

Earnings of banks are seen moderating to 15-18 per cent in Q3 of the current financial year on the back of weaker margins and lower pre-provisioning operating profits due to elevated operating expenditures, employee wage costs, and cost of funds.

“We expect banks to report muted operating profit growth in Q3FY24, on lower NII and higher opex, even as the sequential pace of NIM decline moderates. Repricing of term deposits will continue to drive funding costs higher. Credit costs should remain benign,” Axis Capital said in a note.

Foreign brokerage CLSA has cautioned that the top-decile valuations of Indian equities may weigh on returns this year, notwithstanding the prospect of a third term for the incumbent government at the Centre.

At 20.2x, the Nifty’s price to earnings multiples have been higher on only 8 per cent of days over the past 18 years. The market’s valuation premium to its historical average is the highest recorded among the 19 largest global markets and India is no longer the EPS growth leader that it has been for the past three years. India’s valuation premium to China, for instance, is close to 14-year highs. The brokerage’s proprietary India bull/bear index has had an extended 95 per cent bullish sentiment reading as well.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have raised concerns that the move to T+0, or same-day settlement may fragment the market liquidity or trading volumes, while seeking more time to suggest viable alternatives, given the year-end holiday season, said two sources in the know.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India has proposed a phase-wise transition to instant settlement of trades in the equity cash market and sought feedback by January 12.

Turnover: (NSE + BSE)

Cash Volume: 108328.67 + 9830.93 Total: 118159.6

F&O Volume: 418013.09 + 23675112.7 Total: 24093125.7

Provisional Cash Rs. In Crs.

FII/FPI: NET BUY: +1696.86 

(12677.19 - 10980.33) 

DII: NET SELL: -3497.62

(9796.37 - 13293.99)

Arvind SmartSpaces: Kamal Singhal, MD and CEO

H1 Saw 50-60% Growth In Bookings, Q3 Is Looking Good As Well: Arvind SmartSpaces

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=taC7CNERYZY

BEML: Shantanu Roy, CMD

Expect Defence Revenue To Reach ?2,500-5000 Cr In 4-5 Years: BEML

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzLQDpGPfBc

JBM Auto: Nishant Arya, ED

JBM Auto’s EV Orderbook Roadmap;Big EV Opportunity For JBM Auto?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yz2D4pCj-EA

KFin Technologi: Senthil G, Chief Business Dev Officer

KFin Tech: 2024 Roadmap For Growth | Senthil G

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv1EgYOPpLA

PTC Industries: Sachin Agarwal, CMD

‘Well Funded For At Least Next 2 Years,’ Sachin Agarwal, CMD, PTC Industries

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTF_Pfv1VSQ

Paras Defense: Amit Mahajan, Director of Technical & R&D

Believe Defence Sector Is Going To Do Really Well Due To Policies By The Government: Paras Defence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5PaWtEV3IY

Blue Star: B Thiagarajan, MD

Expect competition to remain elevated but will retain 15% market share,’ B Thiagarajan of Blue Star.

https://twitter.com/cnbctv18news/status/1742420055361819007?s=48&t=v93OK0uc4_THpPO_aS8n7w

MAP MY INDIA: Rakesh Verma, CMD

‘Have Rs 450-500 cr cash on books as of today,’ says Rakesh Verma of @MapmyIndia .

https://twitter.com/cnbctv18news/status/1742431219391033680?s=48&t=v93OK0uc4_THpPO_aS8n7w

Galaxy Surfacta: K Natarajan, Executive Director & COO

OnCNBCTV18 | #RedSea attack will impact freight rates, says K Natarajan, ED & COO of #GalaxySurfactants.

https://twitter.com/cnbctv18news/status/1742831359432016183?s=48&t=v93OK0uc4_THpPO_aS8n7w

JK Tyre and Indu: Anuj Kathuria, President

We have been growing at a rate faster than the industry,’ says Anuj Kathuria of #JKTyre&Industries

https://twitter.com/cnbctv18news/status/1742778946419323329?s=48&t=v93OK0uc4_THpPO_aS8n7w

Events today…

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Results today…

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Weekly snapshot: Indian equities closed in red zone during the first week of CY2024, on lack of supportive cues from the global markets. 

Weekly Fund-flow Activities: The Foreign Institutional investors have bought equities worth of Rs 3290.23 cr in while The Domestic Institutional investors have sold equities of Rs 7296.5 cr in cash segment. 

Indices Performance: Nifty 50 has closed flat with loss of (0.09) percent. Nifty Bank also closed flat with loss of (0.28) percent. 

Macro Data: US CPI, US Unemployment rate, China CPI data and Indian Inflation Rate are the scheduled macro events for next week. 

Weekly Outlook: During the next week, the Indian equity market is expected to remain volatile as the earning season kicks off. Momentum of Dollar index and Treasury yields are important factors to remain on top of the mind of the market participants.

15.30 EURO Retail Sales m/m (Expected: -0.35% versus Previous:0.1%)

Commercial Metals Company (Pre market) (Sector- Metal)

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (Post market) (Sector- Financial)

Asian stocks held steady within limited ranges as traders anticipate forthcoming inflation data from the US, Japan, and China. The mixed jobs and activity data on Friday dampened the year’s initial market sentiment. Notably, Japanese markets are closed on Monday for a holiday.

At the open, South Korean shares climbed by 0.39% to reach 2,588.16, and Australian equities saw a 0.14% rise to 7,499. Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Hang Seng index recorded a 0.28% increase, trading at 16,581.86.