Share Market Highlights 10 July 2024: Markets sink below record levels; Sensex tanks over 400 pts on widespread profit booking

The rupee stayed range-bound and settled 2 paise lower at 83.51 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday amid rising crude oil prices overseas and selling in domestic equities.

A softening American currency and inflow of foreign funds capped the fall in the local unit, forex traders said.

Read more here.

Following muted growth in FY24, Commercial Vehicle (CV) sales volumes are expected to register a degrowth by 3-6% in FY25 due to a slowdown in demand in both the Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV) and Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) segments, as well as high inventory levels with dealers. 

Demand is, however, likely to pick up some pace post-Q2FY25 with the conclusion of general elections and a likely uptick in infrastructure projects post-monsoon. Replacement demand and mandatory scrapping of older government vehicles are expected to support volumes in FY25.

The muted growth in FY24 was mainly due to the high base of FY23, the transition to BS VI leading to higher vehicle costs and a slowdown in infrastructure projects amidst elections during the latter part of the year leading to higher inventory with dealers. 

The CV sector is expected to exhibit recovery in H2FY25 due to anticipated GDP growth, ongoing infrastructure projects and potential interest rate cuts.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) is projected to achieve single-digit growth in revenue and profit during the April-June quarter of fiscal year 2024-25 (Q1FY25) compared to the same period last year. This growth is attributed to a recovery in the flow of business and clients’ willingness to resume discretionary spending.

Kotak Institutional Equities attributes TCS’s revenue growth to strong order signings from previous quarters, including $150 million from the BSNL deal. This would lead to marginal growth compared to the March 2024 quarter.

Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra have cut the prices of their SUV models to boost demand.

Tata Motors has revised the starting prices of its flagship SUVs, the Harrier (₹14.99 lakh) and the Safari (₹15.49 lakh) and extended benefits of up to ₹1.4 lakh on other popular SUV variants.

Mahindra & Mahindra said its XUV700’s fully-loaded AX7 range now starts at ₹19.49 lakh, a price cut of over ₹2 lakh.

Iceberg seeks to leverage monthly macroeconomic compass, scanning key motifs and boots on the ground to curate “chops and changes”.

Real Sector: capex moderates; rural demand picks up

Our Real Sector indices continue to signal a steady and healthy economy, led by consumption. Rural consumption continues to improve sequentially MoM as well as YoY, which indicates the possibility of sustained recovery. A normal Monsoon to date in agrarian states bodes well. Elections-related uncertainty adversely affected the progress on infra and capex activity. We expect this to be a temporary blip which will begin to recover post budget on 23rd July 2024. The industry and trade sectors remain steady with air freight and fertilizer production aiding sequential growth.

India’s current account balance to remain manageable

India’s trade deficit has reached its highest level since October 2023, increasing to USD 23.8bn in May from USD 19.1bn in April, as exports and imports growth shot up to 9.1% YoY and 7.7% YoY, respectively. On the other hand, traction in services exports continues, up 13.9% YoY during April-May 2024.

While merchandise trade is yet to improve in FY25, robust services exports and sustained remittances keep our positive outlook intact. Lower crude prices also would lessen import bills in the coming months – the outcome of the recent OPEC meet – gradually increasing production from early CY25 – with a benign China economy keeping us bearish on oil. India’s crude basket is down 5.3% to ~USD 86.6/bbl as on 8 July from CY24 YTD peak. 

Taking this into account, we retain India’s current account deficit (CAD) at 1.3% for FY25E. Key headwinds remain in the form of a rise in non-oil commodity prices and increasing freight cost that could escalate the imports bill. 

Global outlook this month

This months’ global outlook continues to be dominated by the US CPI data for June – we expect 3.15% CPI and 3.4% core CPI YoY (~3.3% and ~3.4% in April 2024). If CPI continues to trend lower on the back of soft US labor market data, the rate cut chatters inside the US Fed are likely to grow. Geopolitical developments also are a key factor that needs to be monitored. Political uncertainty in France, the run-up to the US Presidential elections and the ongoing India-Russia meet are closely watched events this month.

Among EM, India will release June CPI data – we expect 5.03% YoY vs 4.75% in May. Additionally India will be releasing its full Union Budget for FY25 on 23 July, which gains importance due to two reasons: 1) it is the first Budget post the global bond index inclusion – eyes will be on fiscal consolidation, and 2) the first Union Budget of a Coalition government in a decade – eyes will be on spending mix, reform focus, populist spending after weaker than expected seats for BJP in Lok Sabha polls and tilt away if any from capex spending.

As the grand spectacle of Mukesh Ambani’s son Anant’s opulent wedding unfurls in Mumbai from July 12, Maharashtra’s political landscape is thrown into turmoil. The city’s high-end hotels, transformed into glittering fortresses for the event, are leaving state politicians in a desperate scramble. With the State Council elections slated for the same day, party leaders are frantic to corral their MLAs in secure, luxurious accommodations to stave off any poaching attempts by rival factions. Yet, the astronomical hotel rates, driven skyward by the influx of wedding guests, have them grappling with a dire predicament: how to keep their MLAs together, content, and out of reach of their opponents amid a city bursting at the seams with celebration and intrigue.

Mirae Asset Financial Services a non-banking financial company (NBFC), and a subsidiary of Mirae Asset Group has launched personal loans for salaried employees across selected cities.

The launch of personal loans is a strategic move that aims to diversify revenue streams, enhance net interest margins (NIMs), profitability, and build a robust loan book. Following the success of its first product – Loan against mutual funds/ shares, this marks the NBFC’s first foray into unsecured lending. The objective is to develop an unsecured loan book while maintaining strong overall asset quality.

Aluminium futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have remained sideways for nearly a month. The July expiry has been fluctuating between ₹228 and ₹235.

Prior to the contract entering the horizontal trend, it witnessed a decline. Yet, now that aluminium futures are range bound, the downtrend has lost its momentum. Moreover, there is an important support at ₹225 apart from ₹228.

“Emcure Pharma debuted the markets with strong listing gains in line with our expectations along with robust demand received from all types of investors. We believe the investor demand has come considering reasonable valuations and an opportunity to invest in the leading pharmaceutical company in India in the gynecology and HIV antiviral therapeutic areas.

While for long term investors given its strategic focus on high-growth therapeutic areas, innovative product portfolio, successful global expansions coupled and solid R&D foundation, Emcure is well-positioned for sustained growth for long term as well. Hence, we recommend allotted investors to “HOLD” the Emcure Pharmaceuticals Ltd for a long term perspective.”

Upstox, one of India’s leading wealth management platforms, has issued a cautionary advisory regarding an uptick in impersonation scams targeting investors. With the increasing adoption of AI, Upstox has observed instances across sectors where individuals are trying to impersonate brands and defraud the general public. While investigating such attempts, the Upstox cybersecurity team has identified common patterns - such as the creation and usage of fake Social Media accounts, Apps, WhatsApp groups, and Websites pretending to be Upstox offering educational courses, stock tips, and promising guaranteed returns.

Upstox has noticed fake channels, such as ‘Upstox Facilities Group’ and ‘Upstox Investment Academy’, falsely claiming affiliation with Upstox and posing as Upstox employees. These groups are claiming to conduct educational courses and sessions on the Stock Market under Upstox’s name. Customers from Tier 2 and Tier 3 are especially affected by these impersonation scams due to lack of awareness and limited access to reliable information sources. With a customer base of 1.4 crore, Upstox has initiated a comprehensive awareness campaign across multiple communication channels to educate and protect investors. This includes recurring email campaigns alerting new, active, and dormant users, in-app product banners alerting logged-in users, and frequent push notifications and social media campaigns.

Post-listing view on Emcure Pharmaceuticals from Shivani Nyati, Head of Wealth, Swastika Investmart Ltd:

Emcure Pharmaceuticals, a leading player in the Indian pharma market, witnessed a strong debut on the stock exchanges, listing at Rs. 1325 per share. This translates to a significant 31.45% gain over its issue price of Rs. 1008. The listing aligns with pre-listing expectations, fueled by the robust investor response.

The oversubscription and listing gain highlight investor confidence in Emcure’s established brand, diversified product portfolio, and international market reach. However, the pharmaceutical industry’s regulatory stringency and potential disruptions in the raw material supply chain still require ongoing monitoring.

Emcure Pharma’s listing performance is positive, which aligns with pre-listing anticipation. The strong investor response and listing gain demonstrate confidence in the company’s future potential. However, the identified risks within the pharmaceutical industry necessitate ongoing monitoring by investors. Investors may hold their positions by keeping a stop loss at 1200.

Bank​ Nifty​ opened today’s session with a gap-down at 52,529 versus yesterday’s close of 52,569. It extended the decline further and is now trading around 52,280, down 0.5 per cent.

​The contract is now trading near an important support of 52,300 where a trendline support coincides as well​. 

Bansal Wire Industries, a leading manufacturer of steel wire products, surpassed pre-listing expectations with a stellar debut on the stock exchanges. The company is listed at Rs. 356 per share, translating to a significant 39.4% gain over its issue price of Rs. 256. This impressive performance outshines even the pre-listing buzz. 

The company received a robust subscription, highlighting significant investor confidence in Bansal Wire’s established position, diverse product portfolio, and consistent financial performance. However, it operates in a highly fragmented and competitive market. 

Overall, Bansal Wire’s listing performance surpasses pre-listing expectations and signifies investor confidence in the company’s potential. However, careful consideration of the identified risks is still crucial. Investors are advised to hold their position with a stop-loss of Rs. 321.

Aurionpro Sol: Ashish Rai, Vice Chairman

Aurionpro News: Tapping The Chances In Data Centers, What’s Company Plan For Expanding Biz Further?

Indian Hotels: Puneet Chhatwal, MD

Cautiously Optimistic About Achieving 10% Revenue Growth Over FY24; See Margins at over 30%: IHCL

KIMS Hospitals: Dr. Bhaskara Rao, MD

Expect Q1FY25 To Be Better In Terms Of Occupancy And Cost Cutting: KIMS

Maruti Suzuki: Rahul Bharti, ED

Maruti Suzuki Growth Plans: Eyes 35% Despatches Via Rail In 7-8 Years | Rahul Bharti

Senco Gold Limited: Suvankar Sen, CEO

Heat Wave, Elections & Lesser Wedding Dates Have Kept Growth Lower: Senco Gold & Diamonds

Suraj Estate De: Rahul Thomas, Whole-time Director

Suraj Estate: Co’s Eye On Q1FY25 Pre-Sales, What Impact Does It Create On Topline Growth?

Ajmera Realty: Dhaval Ajmera, Director

Ajmera Realty: Strong Q1 Collection Upto 49%, What’s The Strategy Of Expanding Business In Future?

CRISIL: Anuj Sethi, Senior Director

F&B Competitive Intensity Will Remain High This Year: CRISIL Ratings

Dhanlaxmi Bank: Ajith Kumar KK, MD&CEO

Bank Has Approval For Raising Upto Rs 300 Cr Via Rights Issue: Dhanlaxmi Bank

Man Industries: RC Mansukhani, Chairman

Likely To Increase Its Guidance After Receiving The ?1,850 Cr Line Pipe Order: Man Industries

Events today…

Results today…

Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, are trading at near-record high levels after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided little indication of the timing of interest rate cuts in the US economy. 

The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped 148.88 points to 80,202.76 in early trade, while the NSE Nifty fell 31.65 points to 24,401.55. Both the Nifty 50 and the S&P BSE Sensex achieved record high levels and closing highs on Tuesday.Since the start of June, the Nifty 50 has reached record closing highs 15 times out of 26 sessions, one more than the Sensex. 

Additionally, the Nifty 50 has hit all-time highs 16 times during this period, driven by expectations of policy continuity due to the national general elections and an upgraded economic growth forecast from the central bank.

According to Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities, “Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicates rate cuts depend on inflation reaching 2%. Recent inflation progress hints at possible rate cuts starting in September. Bullish investors eye a Nifty target of 26,000, with focus on US CPI data on July 11th and earnings season kickoff by TCS on the same day.” His recommended trades are Buy Nifty, targeting 25,500, and Bank Nifty, targeting 54,500, and his top stock picks are HINDALCO (target Rs 750) and LARSEN (target Rs 3,921).

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities said, “Nifty and Sensex reached new highs on Tuesday. Market momentum remains positive with key support at 24,300/80,000. Resistance is seen at 24,500-24,600/80,500-80,800. Bank-Nifty holding above 52,000 is positive, targeting 53,000. Below 52,000, it may fall to 51,700 or 51,500.”In his testimony to the US Congress, Jerome Powell refrained from giving any signals about the timing of future interest rate actions. 

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September decreased slightly to 73% from 77% the previous day, though expectations of a 50 basis point cut in 2024 remain unchanged.

The potential impact of US interest rate decisions on the Indian stock market is significant. Lower US rates make emerging markets like India more attractive to foreign investors. US rate-sensitive IT stocks will be focused ahead of the quarterly results of Tata Consultancy Services, India’s top software services provider, later in the week.

(Nirmal Bang Retail Research)

Result ok

Revenue from Operations came at Rs. 152.4 Cr (-4.7% QoQ, 3.8% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 159.9 Cr, YoY Rs. 146.9 Cr

EBIDTA came at Rs. 31.5 Cr (24.8% QoQ, 16.2% YoY) vs QoQ Rs. 25.2 Cr, YoY Rs. 27.1 Cr

EBITDA Margin came at 20.6% vs QoQ 15.8%, YoY 18.4%

Adj. PAT came at Rs. 24.9 Cr vs QoQ Rs. 86.6 Cr, YoY Rs. 19.9 Cr

Quarter EPS is Rs. 10.9

Stock is trading at P/E of 13.2x TTM EPS

RVNL: Company emerges lowest bidder for a project worth ₹202.87 crore of South Eastern Railway. 

Shilpa Medicare: Company unit’s Raichur API facility in Karnataka clears GMP inspection conducted by Brazil regulatory agency 

Infosys: Company in 5-year deal with Sector Alarm to develop financial and business operating models. 

KDDL: Approval of Buyback through “Tender offer” route at Rs 3700/Sh

Waaree Renewable: Company secures 412.5 MW solar project in Rajasthan 

KIMS: Company has executed a Share Purchase agreement to acquire 100% Equity Stake in Chalasani Hospitals private Limited

Ascensive Educare: Company entered into pacts with blue dart express, Delhivery, pact for recruitment and payroll management

Advait Infratech: Company wins order worth 73cr rupees

BPCL/IOC: Russia has offered the scheme reduction of transaction fees on the oil imports 

BLS International: Acquired 100% stake in idata, turkey based visa and consular service provider by BLS International Holding Anonim Sirketi, Turkey. 

RS Soft: Q1 Sl Net Profit 30m Rupees Vs 23m, Q1 Revenue 187m Rupees Vs 111m YoY 

IGL/MGL/Gujarat Gas/ATGL: The Govt is likely to provide big relief to the City gas distribution companies in the budget. 

Ashiana Housing: Company looks to expand to Mumbai, Delhi NCR, Bengaluru amid real estate boom 

HG Infra: Company and Ultra Vibrant Solar Energy ink deal for projects worth Rs 465 crore. 

Adani Power: Mahan Energen, in 20-year power purchase agreement for 500 MW with Reliance Industries. 

Adani Ports: Company get LoI for developing and operating Berth No. 13 at Deendayal Port in Gujarat with a concession period of 30 years. 

Havells: Company is planning expansion of manufacturing capacity of cables at Alwar plant. 

ONGC: Company to invest ₹2 lakh crore to meet net zero emission target. 

Wipro: Cognizant Technology says that CFO Jatin Dalal has resolved lawsuit with Wipro.

JSW Steel: Company consolidated production at 6.35 million tons, down 1% year-on-year. 

Varun beverages: Company issued a $27.5 million corporate guarantee for its subsidiary varun beverages international DMCC, valid until June 30, 2027, in favor of ICICI bank’s DIFC branch in Dubai. 

Parag Milk: Company executed first amendment agreement to FCCB subscription agreement with IFC, revision in conversion price of FCCBS from 145 rupees to 135 rupees per share

RMC Switchgears: Company wins order worth 4.76cr rupees

Mahindra & Mahindra: Company cuts prices of top-end variants of XUV7OO SUV by almost Rs 1 lakh. 

IRM Energy: Karan Kaushal resigns as CEO of Company effective July 31. 

Delhivery: Cananda Pension Plan Investment Board likely to sell 3.17% equity of Delhivery via block deal. 

Mankind Pharma: Capital Group affiliate, Hema CIPEF to sell 0.9% stake of Mankind Pharma via block deal. 

Bank of Baroda: Hikes lending rates by 5 bps on most of tenures from July 12 

M&M: Mahindra Group reduces the price of its top XUV700 model to ₹19.49 lakh ex-showroom 

Reliance: Company introduced the successor to last year’s JioTag, called the JioTag Air.

Marathon Nextgen: Company’s pre-sales area at 79,239 square feet, down 45% year-on-year. 

Delta Corp: Net profit at Rs 21.7 crore versus Rs 67.9 crore, EBITDA margin 17.35% VS 37.07% YoY.

BSE BLOCK DEAL 23432500 Delhivery @388.45

NSE BLOCK DEAL 14734000 NYKAA@174.04

CRISIL Q1: INVESTOR REKHA RAKESH JHUNJHUNWALA REDUCED STAKE TO 5.36% FROM 5.44% 

DIIs STAKE REDUCED TO 12.51% FROM 12.96%

FIIs STAKE INCREASED TO 7.2% FROM 7.17%

GULF OIL LUBRICANTS Q1: DIIs STAKE INCREASED TO 5.88% FROM 5.02 %

FIIs STAKE REDUCED TO 5.65% FROM 7.08%

PG ELECTROPLAST MANAGEMENT SAYS Welcomes the reopening of the PLI Scheme and plans to invest again in the PLI Scheme for white goods

* Formalizing its strategy to invest in the PLI scheme for white goods P

* Seeing very strong demand in the AC segment

* Revenue guidance of ₹3,400 crore for FY25

* Expecting ₹500 to ₹600 crore in revenues from JV for TVs

* AC and washing machine businesses are growing at around 40%

* Expanding further capacity on the AC side to capture the demand for the next summer season. planning to launch a couple of new products line soon

* Under the AC PLI incentive, company expects around ₹50 crore for FY25- Etnow

Praj Industries Ltd.’s FY24 performance was a mixed bag; revenue fell a tad, while profitability improved on healthy gross margin expansion. In its FY24 annual report, the company shared its vision of building a bio-based future using sustainable and innovative solutions.

It expects to transform the business and shift focus to emerging segments like compressed biogas, energy transition and climate action and sustainable aviation fuel, to deliver profitable growth over the long term.

The company is also looking to deepen its international presence through unique and innovative decarbonization solutions. Praj is a dominant player in the domestic bioenergy sector, marked by sustained robust order book supported by healthy inquiries, and growing traction in starchy feedstock plants and CBG.

The sharp ~40% run up in its stock price since our report dated June 01, 2024, has led us to downgrade Praj to Hold from Buy. But we raise our target price to Rs 729 (Rs 607 earlier), based on 30 times FY26E price/earning (earlier 25 times).

Key risks: Change in government of India’s ethanol blending policy, inability to pass-through raw material cost volatility and technology obsolescence.

Raymond Limited (Demerged Company)

Raymond Lifestyle Limited (Resulting Company)

Symbol: RAYMOND

Stock Price: 3078.30/-

Last cum date: 10 July 2024 (Today)

Record date: 11 July 2024\u0009

Ratio : 4:5 (For every 5 shares held in Raymond, the shareholders will receive 4 shares in Raymond Lifestyle)

Alliance Integrated Metaliks Ltd.

Bonus issue 2:1

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 96.25

Ex Bonus 11 July 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last date Trade for Before Bonus Today

Ex-Dividend 11 July 2024 (Tomorrow)

Last date for Cum-Dividend Today

Bharat Seats Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.1.6

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 168.6

Century Textiles & Industries Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.5

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 2238.85

Oriental Hotels Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.0.5

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 141.95

Route Mobile Ltd

Dividend Per Share Rs.2

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 1803.2

Sky Industries Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.1

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 121.2

Vimta Labs Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.2

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 516.65

Vtm Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.0.75

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 69.62

Sinclairs Hotels Ltd.

Dividend Per Share Rs.1

Previous day Closing Price – Rs. 113.25

Al Mehwar Commercial Investments LLC sold 22.5 lk shares @ 783

Kotak Mahindra MF bought 11 lk shares @ 783

Kotak Mahindra MF bought 7 lk shares @ `783

Shilpa Medicare:

WOS Shilpa Pharma Lifesciences Limited’s API manufacturing Unit II in Raichur had undergone a GMP inspection by ANVISA-Brazil from April 15-April 19, 2024. Following a successful inspection, the Unit has been issued GMP Certification from ANVISA-Brazil.

Buy, TP Rs 1784 

Stress Test Offers Limited Downside, Risk-Reward Attractive

See Avg RoA/RoE Of 4.2%/17% Even If Credit Costs Rise To Avg 3.4% Over FY25-27

Stress Case Scenario Offers 16% Downside

Co Will Be Able To Meet Its Guidance

Buy, TP Rs 3400 

Close Long Fast On Stk

Regulatory Risks Could Be Severe Than Expectations

Regulatory Risks May Outweigh Benefits Of Rising Vols

Co Aims To Protect Profitability Through Higher Market Share, Lower Clearing Charges

Hema CIPEF to sell 0.9% stake worth Rs 763cr

Deal at Rs 2061/share – 2% discount

Hema CIPEF currently owns 2.22% stake

Alert-HEMA CIPEF is FII Capital Group Affliate

Canada Pension to sell 3.17% stake worth Rs 885 cr

Deal at Rs 378 – INR 389 per share (Upto 3.5% discount)

Complete exit expected

Alert:Canada Pension sold 2.8% stake on April 25 worth Rs 900cr

Core category would continue to do well

Sharply scaling up the sealants category

Sales from ecommerce have surged 14x in three years

Have big plans to become a major player in the electronics and EV adhesive markets

* Maintain Buy; Hike target price to Rs 6,700 from Rs 5,390

* Pipe Volumes up +27% YoY in Apr-May 2024, despite high base

* Focus on Value-added sales can aid margin resilience

* SKU breadth and distribution depth act so as key moats for share gains

* View co. as a good play on housing, capex, agri; est +25% EPS CAGR over D FY24-27

* Expect to get some precious inputs in the upcoming budget

* Markets are pricing in a growth oriented budget with a fiscal consolidation path

* Any meaningful social narrative, given the compulsions of a coalition government and loss of mandate in elections, is not priced in

* An immense need is to continue the infra spending; thus, infra will continue to winpor in Modi 3.0

* Expecting major taxation changes is being too optimistic

* Agri loan waivers to stay out of union budget

* Maintain Neutral with target price of Rs 11,565

* Second largest state reduces tax on strong hybrid to zero

* This reduces price premium for strong hybrid Vs ICE from ~20% to ~10%

* This is sentiment positive for Maruti - 20% strong hybrid market share in CY2023

* UP accounts for 10-11% of car sales in India with Maruti having ~44% market share

* Lower taxes will reduce the payback period from 11-years to 5-years

* Focus on localizing strong hybrid technology can further reduce ownership cost, driving market share gains in the medium term

* Earnings growth is likely to decline in Q1FY25 from a high base

* We remain in an earnings upcycle evidenced by a 15th straight quarter of double digit earnings compounding

* Overweight on Financials, Cons Disc, Industrials and Technology and are avoiding external facing sectors

* Over half of MS coverage universe is expected to report margin expansion

* Upgrade to Add from Reduce; Hike target price to Rs 5,998 from Rs 5,377

* Recovery in E&U & FSI verticals & large customers could aid revenue growth

* Margin underperformance likely bottoming out

* FSI, hi-tech recovery could aid double-digit YoY growth in Q4FY25

(CMP: 1,412)

UNDERPERFORM MAINTAIN TARGET: 1,079

* Remain Cautious On The Company

* Insecticides Category Growth Is Structurally Slowing

* Overseas Business, While Being Rationalised, Still Face Currency Challenges

Symbol: BANSALWIRE 

Series: Equity “B Group” 

BSE Code: 544209 

ISIN: INE0B9K01025 

Face Value: Rs 5/- 

Issued Price: Rs 256/- per share

Symbol: EMCURE 

Series: Equity “B Group” 

BSE Code: 544210 

ISIN: INE168P01015 

Face Value: Rs 10/- 

Issued Price: Rs 1008/- per share

The US market showcased a lack of momentum as the indices bounced back and forth and ended up with a mixed performance, with S&P and Nasdaq closing in for their new high and DJIA being edged. This comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which suggests concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth. The US CPI report is due on Thursday and is expected to show inflation easing, and the producer price inflation report is expected to be issued on Friday. The Asian market was trading subdued as Chinese macro data failed to meet street estimates. However, Hang Seng trades in the green zone as the Hang Seng Tech Index rises by over 2%. The Indian market is expected to open slightly higher on Wednesday despite mixed signals from global markets. Emcure Pharma and Bansal Wire IPO shares are set to debut today, with expectations of significant gains. Investors will also closely watch earnings season, which starts tomorrow with IT giant TCS reporting its Q1FY25 numbers. Valuation concerns persist as we approach the forthcoming Budget, but institutional participants hold their positions in anticipation of the market’s direction following the Budget.

The benchmark index opened 30 points higher in the previous trading session and displayed some mild volatility during the first hour of trading. After the initial fluctuations subsided, a strong bullish momentum propelled the index to achieve new record highs of 24443. Market breadth and momentum remained positive, with sectoral indices also performing well. The index is trading near its 5-day EMA, which is its immediate support at 24314. Sustaining above this level will likely continue to attract bullish strength.

Sup: 24400-24310-24225

Res: 24450-24500-24600

Benchmark indices registered a new all-time high on Tuesday, with Nifty closing 97 points higher after a promising uptrend rally while Sensex ended 391 points higher. Among sectors, the auto index gained over 2 per cent while intraday profit booking was witnessed in select IT, oil and gas stocks.

Technically, the market maintained positive momentum throughout the day after a positive opening. A bullish candle on the daily chart and higher bottom formation on an intraday chart indicate a further uptrend from current levels. Currently, 24300/80000 would act as a key support zone for trend-following traders. We believe, that as long as the market is trading above it, the bullish sentiment will likely continue. On the higher side, 24500 -24600/80500-80800 would be the immediate resistance zones for day traders. However, below 24300/80000 the sentiment may change. It will weaken below the same momentum.

The Bank-Nifty is holding above the level of 52000, which is positive and can help the index move towards the upper boundary at 53000. Below 52000 it may gradually fall to 51700 or 51500 levels.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell insists that a rate cut is not appropriate until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. Recent inflation readings have shown modest progress, and more positive data could strengthen the case for a rate cut, possibly as soon as September, with up to three cuts anticipated this year. Amid this backdrop, bullish investors are revising their Nifty targets higher to 26,000, and attention is now on the US CPI data due on July 11th. The upcoming earnings season, beginning with TCS on July 11th, is expected to be an exciting time for stocks, while the countdown to the union budget presentation by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on July 23rd has begun. Preferred trades include buying Nifty at CMP with targets up to 25,500 and Bank Nifty between 52,100-52,200 with targets up to 54,500. Top stock picks are HINDALCO and LARSEN, both recommended as momentum plays with aggressive targets of 750 and 3,921, respectively.

Gold traded in a narrow price range on Wednesday as investors looked forward to a key U.S. inflation reading that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rates trajectory.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,367.79 per ounce by 0229 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.3% to $2,374.10. - Reuters

U.S. stocks finished mostly higher on Tuesday with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reporting small gains to end at record levels, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a second session. Investors on Tuesday digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks to Congress, which did little to change market bets that policymakers may be able to start cutting interest rates in September.

Powell said elevated inflation is not the only risk the economy is facing, and the policymakers were paying closer attention to the cooling labor market. Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth.

Tesla Inc.’s stock cruised Tuesday to clinch its longest winning streak in more than a year and close at its highest level since October. The company’s stock TSLA rose 3.7% in Tuesday trading to log its 10th session in a row of gains — its longest stretch of consecutive increases since it rose for 13 trading days in a row during a period that ended last June, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

China’s consumer price inflation rose by 0.2% in June from a year ago, missing expectations, while producer prices fell in-line with forecasts, data from the National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed. China’s consumer price index was expected to rise by 0.4% year-on-year in June, according to a poll by Reuters. The producer price index, which measures factory-gate prices, dropped by 0.8% from a year ago — in line with expectations.

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Wednesday, even as key US benchmarks rose following dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell overnight.

After opening the day higher on July 09, benchmark indices continued the momentum as the session progressed on and ended the day higher. At close, Nifty was up by 112 points or 0.46% at 24433. Short term trend of the Nifty continues to remain positive. Recent swing low of 24168 is likely to offer an immediate support for the short term, while immediate resistance is seen at 24610 in Nifty.

Emkay Global 

We re-initiate coverage on HG Infra (HGIEL) with a BUY and SOTP-based TP of Rs2,100/sh. HGIEL’s makeover from a small subcontractor into a diversified infra play offers best-in-class operating & financial metrics and has supported swift, stress-free growth. HGIEL’s mainstay (roads) saw order slow-down in FY24 in the run up to the elections and due to restrictions on MoRTH-NHAI (cost overrun in Bharatmala, NHAI issues, aggressive past). But the GoI’s new Vision India@2047 plan in a post-election cycle is expected to revive awarding (mgmt. guides to Rs120bn total inflows in FY25 vs Rs45bn in FY24). HGIEL is also expanding into Railways where focus on high-speed corridors, freight, & station upgrade should support mid-term growth. Solar and Water are other prospects, with Rs13bn worth orders already secured under solar scheme Kusum

Shares of Emcure Pharmaceuticals will be listed on the bourses today after a fairly successful IPO. Bain Capital-backed Emcure Pharma has fixed the IPO price at ₹1,008, at the upper end of the price band of ₹960-1,008. The issue was subscribed 67.87 times.

Shivani Nyati, Head of Wealth, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said the stock is set for a stellar debut. The IPO has captivated investors, with a remarkable grey market premium (GMP) of ₹372, translating to a significant 36.9 per cent premium over the issue price.

Emcure Pharma hit the market with an IPO size of ₹1,952.03 crore—a fresh issue of 79 lakh shares worth ₹800 crore and an offer-for-sale (OFS) of 1.14 crore shares totaling ₹1,152.03 crore.

Shares of Bansal Wire Industries will make their debut at the bourses on Wednesday. Bansal Wire, an 100 per cent fresh issue, was subscribed 59.57 times. 

The ₹745-crore initial public offering came out with a price band of ₹243-256 and the IPO price has been fixed at ₹256. The QIBs, who remained lukewarm during the first two days, stepped up their bidding on the last day, as their quota was subscribed 146 times. The portion reserved for HNIs saw aggressive bidding of 51.46 times, followed by retail investors at 13.64 times.

Buzzing stocks: Infosys, Adani Ports, KIMS, RVNL, RateGain, KDDL, HG Infra, GMDC, BLS International, Kesoram, Alembic Pharma, Mehai Tech, SRG Housing

* ABFRL

* BALRAMCHIN

* BANDHANBANK

* CHAMBAL

* GNFC

* IEX

* INDIACEM

* INDUSTOWER

* PEL

Actual: 0.2% 

Expected: 0.4%

Previous: 0.3%

China PPI YoY (Jun)

Actual: -0.8%

Expected: -0.8%

Previous: -1.4%

(Chinese CPI inflation continued to remain tepid indicates the demand concerns)

JTLIND, KESORAMIND, TATAELXSI

TATAELXSI

▪️Rupee Revenue expected at Rs 924 crore versus Rs 906 crore

▪️EBIT expected to be seen at Rs 232 crore versus Rs 233 crore

▪️EBIT margin expected to be seen at 25.10% versus 25.72%

▪️Net profit expected to be seen at Rs 194 crore versus Rs 196 crore

Q1FY25 EARNING CALENDAR 11.07.2024

GTPL, NELCO, TCS

07:00 CHINA CPI y/y (Expected: 0.4% versus Previous: 0.3%) 

07:00 CHINA PPI y/y (Expected: -0.8% versus Previous: -1.4%) 

19:30 U.S. Fed Chair Powell Testifies

India and Russia agreed to set a bilateral trade target of $100 billion by 2030, up from about $65 billion at present, and focus on increasing Indian exports to Russia to achieve a more balanced and sustainable trade, at the annual summit chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday.

“Our talks covered ways to diversify India-Russia cooperation in sectors such as trade, commerce, security, agriculture, technology and innovation. We attach great importance to boosting connectivity and people-to-people exchanges,” according to a post by Modi on social media platform ‘X’ on Tuesday.

The stock of National Aluminium Company has begun a fresh leg of uptrend this month. It took support at ₹186 and rallied over the past week. On Monday, it broke out of the resistance at ₹200 and hit a record high of ₹209.60. The chart is clearly bullish and the decline in price on Tuesday is mostly likely to be a corrective fall. 

The U.S. is “no longer an overheated economy” with a job market that has cooled from its pandemic-era extremes and in many ways is back where it was before the health crisis, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks to Congress that suggested the case for interest rate cuts is becoming stronger.

“We are well aware that we now face two-sided risks,” and can no longer focus solely on inflation, Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. “The labor market appears to be fully back in balance.” - Reuters

HP adhesives: Company subscribed to additional shares of UnityBond Solutions deal for 20M rupees. Target company intends to carry on the business of manufacturing, distribution and/or trading of adhesives and sealants.

#HGInfra signs MoU with #UltraVibrantSolarEnergy for acquiring project development activities worth Rs 465 crore: Exchange filing

* 90% respondents prefer digital payments during online purchases

* Both men and women use UPI for 72% of their transactions

* 52% of offline purchases are still in cash

* 51% respondent highlighted internet as a major hurdle in UPI payments

(Source: Kearney India-Amazon Pay Report)

Turnover: (NSE + BSE) 

Cash Volume: 135443.29 + 10121.98 Total: 145565.27 

F&O Volume: 489352.46 + 169195.36 Total: 658547.82 

Provisional Cash 

FII/FPI: NET BUY: +314.46 

(14,537.07- 14,222.61) 

DII: NET BUY: +1416.46 

(13,615.06 - 12,198.60)

Aqua PMS has returned 76 per cent in its debut year, with an alpha of 37 per cent over the BSE 500, driving its assets under management (AUM) past the ₹340-crore mark. The strategy is run by PL Asset Management, the asset management arm of Prabhudas Lilladher Group.

Aqua is a 100 per cent quant-based strategy with no human intervention. It follows a rules-based, equal-weighted approach and remains benchmark agnostic. Its investment framework analyses over 1,000 indicators to create an optimal portfolio mix.

Realtor Ashwin Sheth Developers is planning to float an initial public offering in the next 18-24 months to raise anywhere between ₹2,500 and ₹3,000 crore, its top officials said.

It is also planning to invest ₹4,500 crore over the next 3-5 years even as it is prepared to foray into other cities such as Delhi, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, and Goa. In Bengaluru, it is close to launching three projects; in Pune, it is considering signing some term sheets; while it is still exploring the Delhi-National Capital Region and other cities, said Chairman and Managing Director Ashwin Sheth.

Inflows into the equity mutual fund hit a record high of ₹40,608 crore in June on back of buoyant equity market and huge fund raise through new fund offer.

The equity fund inflows were up 17 per cent compared to ₹34,697 crore logged in May, according to the Association of Mutual Funds in India data released on Tuesday.

Mutual funds have collected ₹15,227 crore through 17 new fund offers. Of the ₹14,370 crore was raised through 11 equity NFOs. While nine thematic funds mopped-up ₹12,976 crore, one each of multi-cap and small-cap NFOs raised ₹1,051 crore and ₹345 crore.

Here are the intraday supports and resistances for widely traded stocks such as Reliance Industries, ITC, ONGC, Infosys, HDFC Bank, TCS, and SBI

Here’s an interesting stock idea: The stock that we have today is National Aluminium Company. It broke out of a resistance and hit record high early this week. The price action is bullish and we anticipate further rally from the current level.