June was fabulous for market participants, as Nifty and Sensex gained around 7 per cent. Today, the last day of trading in June and the beginning of a fresh monthly series (September)at the NSE, analysts expect bullish momentum to be sustained. According to them, the focus has shifted to the Union Budget, which will be announced in the third week of July. Until such time, the market will move in a narrow range, and a few stocks and sectors will be volatile. However, analysts expect billions of dollars in inflow from foreign investors as JPMorgan is adding the country’s sovereign debt to its emerging markets index today. This will be a big positive for the market sentiment, they opined.

Ajit Mishra – SVP of Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said: “The rotational buying across key sectors is contributing to the index’s steady rise, and we expect this trend to continue. Following the banking sector, we anticipate that IT and FMCG will play crucial roles in maintaining the positive momentum. With the Nifty crossing the 24,000 mark, we see potential for it to test 24,500, with support around the 23,600 level.”

Participants should align their positions accordingly and look for buying opportunities on dips, he added.

Meanwhile, Gift Nifty at 24,205 indicates a gap up, with about 100 points for Nifty, as Nifty’s July futures closed at 24,095.

Trivesh D, COO of Tradejini, said the current momentum indicates that the Sensex might soon touch another level before the Union Budget. Large-cap stocks, particularly in the banking and telecom sectors, are driving this upward trend with solid fundamentals, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor confidence. Going forward, these sectors will continue supporting the market’s growth trajectory.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities, “We are of the view that, the larger texture of the market is bullish but due to temporary overbought conditions, we could see some profit booking at higher levels. For the breakout traders now, 23920/78600 would act as a key support zone while 24150 -24200/79400-79600 could be the immediate resistance zone for the bulls.”

June perspective

Meanwhile, a study by Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, said the Nifty 50 index closed at a lifetime high of 24,047. This marks the 24th all-time high in the year 2024 and places the Nifty above the psychological mark of 24,000 for the first time ever.

“The index recovered all of it Election Day losses in just three trading sessions. This must have been one of the fastest recoveries in the history of Indian capital markets, mainly attributed to fund flows. If you look at FPI’s fund flow data from SEBI then you will see that they have been buyers in the last 12 sessions from 10 to 26 June. They have pumped in nearly ₹32,087 crore in Indian equity markets. DII’s have pumped in ₹20,002 crore in the same period. Retail investors on the election day alone bought stocks worth ₹21,179 crore. Thus market participants have been buying equities left, right and center over the last fortnight which has mainly driven the markets higher.”

From a seasonal perspective, July has been one of the most bullish months for Indian equity markets, according to Sheth. “Nifty has closed on a positive note in 9 out of the last ten years with an average gain of 3.3%. With bulls sitting firmly in the driving seat and multiple factors like liquidity, seasonality and momentum in Bulls’ favour, one can expect the rally to continue in July with a target of 24,500 on the index,” she added.

Meanwhile, the stocks are trading higher in early trade in the Asia-Pacific region.

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