Both key indices, S&P BSE Sensex and CNX Nifty, closed the fiscal 2012-13 on a positive note, coming off four-month lows and and posting a rise of over 0.5 per cent during the shortened week under review.
The BSE and NSE, which were closed on March 27 and 29 on account of ‘Holi’ and ‘Good Friday’, snapped two weeks of downtrend.
Market commenced the week on a strong footing after debt- ridden Cyprus clinched a bailout deal as the Sensex logged a high of 18,950.22.
But, it soon reversed gears on worries over domestic political developments after Samajwadi Party, a key outside ally of UPA Government, indicated it may withdraw support to the ruling coalition at the Centre.
Possibility of political uncertainty triggered concerns about the fate of economic reforms. Cyprus and its euro-zone partners early on Monday reached a deal on a €10 billion ($13 billion) bailout package for the island nation to avoid bankruptcy and to keep it within the single currency group.
The market had been rattled by withdrawal of support to the UPA Government by the DMK last week and RBI’s signal about little room for interest rate cuts in near future following high inflation and current account deficit (CAD), which reached a record high in Q3 of the current fiscal.
On Tuesday, the market snapped its seven-day losing string on short-coverings by operators before the expiry of derivatives contract on March 28. Some winding up of positions towards end of the current financial year also played a key role in the recovery of shares at the tail-end of the week.
The Bombay Stock Exchange 30-share gauge, despite gaining on the last two trading days of the week, touched a fresh four-month intra-day low of 18,568.43 on Thursday. It finally ended the week up 100.17 points, or 0.53 per cent, at 18,835.77.
Last week, the BSE benchmark recorded it biggest weekly point-wise fall since second half of December 2011, dropping a whopping 691.96 points, or 3.56 per cent.
The Sensex has gained 1,431.57 points, or 8.23 per cent, in 2012-13 as compared to the previous fiscal.
The broader CNX Nifty of the NSE also recovered by 31.20 points, or 0.55 per cent, over the last week to settle at 5,682.55.
Observing that investor pessimism in the country might be .
“overdone”, German lender Deutsche Bank predicted that the Sensex would close the current calender year at 22,500.
Commenting on Nifty outlook, Rakesh Goel, Senior VP, Bonanza Portfolio, said: “If in coming week, Nifty sustains above 5,700, further recovery is likely. The Nifty at 5,700 shall be crucial deciding level in near term, and the index is likely to witness further buying above this mark.”
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) infused Rs 1,947.47 crore in the week, including provisional figure of March 28.
According to analysts, the market will remain subdued as the current account deficit (CAD), announced by the RBI in its report on Balance of Payments on late Friday, touched a record high of 6.7 per cent of GDP in the October-December quarter.
Possibility of early general elections and concerns over the pace of economic reform process have already dented market sentiments, they added.