Crude oil tumbled by $2.3 a barrel or 5.8 per cent to close at $37.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Monday. This is the lowest close since February 2009, triggered by the OPEC's decision to maintain status quo in its policy meeting on Friday. Markets had expected OPEC to announce a new ceiling for oil production.
Technically, the Monday’s fall in crude oil prices has decisively breached a significant support level of $40 (a long-term support level) which was providing base since early November.
Commodity prices are in a downtrend across all time frames - long, medium and short. Continuation of the downtrend can pull the oil prices down to ₹34 and then to ₹32.4 (December 2008 low) in the short to medium-term.
Next significant long-term support is at $30. To see some signs of reversal and a near-term bullishness, the commodity has to move above $40 and then $44.
Plummeting oil prices have triggered a sell-off in energy stocks globally as well as locally. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp had declined 2.9 and 2.6 per cent, respectively on Monday.
In the domestic markets, ONGC fell 3 per cent breaching a key support at Rs 220 levels. Other oil exploration and production stocks such as OIL fell 3.3 per cent. Cairn India tumbled 4.5 per cent and Aban declined 2.4 per cent on Tuesday.
On the other hand, oil marketing companies such as HPCL and BPCL are resilient with -0.5 and 0.6 per cent, respectively.