Stocks and the dollar inched higher on Friday, with investor focus squarely on US jobs data later in the day which could give clues on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, maybe even as soon as this month.
The pan-European STOXX Europe 600 edged up 0.2 per cent after ending Thursday flat, remaining in a tight trading range that has persisted for much of the last month as caution prevailed ahead of the jobs figures.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the US economy to have added about 180,000 jobs in August, wages to nudge up and for overall unemployment rate to dip to 4.8 per cent.
The dollar has enjoyed a strong run this week after a speech last week by Fed Chair Janet Yellen where she said she saw a strengthening case for a rate hike. This has been echoed by other Fed board members.
“I don't know what the Fed is waiting for really. We have heard from Janet Yellen that she is more confident about the jobs market,” Kully Samra, UK managing director at US-based bank Charles Schwab.
“We think it will be one hike this year but (Fed vice chairman) Stanley Fischer is trying to make us believe it could be two.”
The dollar was at 103.60 yen, up 0.3 per cent on Friday but still down from a one-month high of 104.00 hit on Thursday. Against a basket of the world’s six top currencies it was up 0.1 per cent as traders kept moves minor.
Fed rate sensitive 10-year US government bonds were hovering just below 1.6 per cent up from just over 1.32 at the start of July.
Euro zone bond yields crept higher, with a Moody’s ratings review of Portugal and a second parliamentary vote of confidence in Spain in focus in addition to the US jobs data.
Analysts said that a payrolls reading of around over 200,000 could even prompt the Federal Reserve to consider raising rates at its next meeting in three weeks time, whereas under 100,000 would push back expectations of a rate rise into 2017.
“Anything above 200,000 will put the Federal Reserve into a bit of a corner. It may have to discount the weaker manufacturing numbers from Thursday, and think about raising rates this month,” said Ana Thaker, Market Economist at PhillipCapital UK.
“A reading of 180,000 increases the chances of a rate hike but might give them more leeway to put it off.”
Asia not rising
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan ended barely changed, after spending the day swaying in and out of the red. Shanghai was up 0.1 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei was flat.
It consigned the region to third straight week of falls, whereas European markets were heading for a second week of gains.
The region’s main currency the euro traded little changed at $1.1192 after bouncing about 0.3 per cent on Thursday. The common currency was at a three-week low of $1.1123 earlier in the week.
Sterling was also steady at $1.3271 after jumping 1 per cent overnight on purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data showing the British manufacturing sector staged one of its sharpest rebounds on record in August.
The post-Brexit surprise boosted the pound as it could prompt the Bank of England to rethink the need to cut interest rates again if other surveys confirm the trend.
Among commodities, US crude was up 0.2 per cent at $43.22 a barrel, steadying after a 3.4 per cent slide to a three-week low as a growing glut from US crude stockpiles soured market sentiment. Brent rose 0.1 per cent to $45.73 a barrel after shedding more than 3 per cent on Thursday.
Precious metal and safe-have Spot gold was down 0.1 per cent at $1,311.31 an ounce, having rebounded from a two-month trough of $1,301.91 the previous day.
Gold has been dogged by the prospect of higher US interest rates which would diminish the appeal of the non-yielding metal.