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Indian equity markets are expected to move in a narrow range during the year and the benchmark Sensex is likely to touch 29,000 by the end of 2017.
According to Deutsche Bank’s India Equity Strategy Report, 2017 is expected to be a year of uncertainty and the market is likely to be volatile and uncertain in the first half and recover in the second half.
“We expect the market to move in a narrow range during 2017, with recovery likely in the latter part of the year,” Deutsche Bank said in a research note adding, “We are setting December 2017 Sensex target of 29,000 (around 8 per cent upside) implying PE of 16.4 times on 2017-18 EPS,” the report said.
It also said that the market is likely to mirror the movement seen in the fourth quarter of 2016, unless the Union Budget surprises positively with a tax induced fiscal stimulus.
Global factors that are likely to dictate trend in the markets include US President-elect Trump’s economic policies, outcome of the French and German elections, how the UK manages ‘Brexit’ and the path of CNY.
Domestically, verdict of five state elections in March, Union Budget in February, developments over rollout of GST and other executive actions hold key to earnings and sentiments, the report said.
The Budget is scheduled to be presented on February 1 and the election verdict will be out on March 11, 2107.
In the second half, domestic factors will take over as the key market determinants, particularly the rollout of the GST, and this may likely emerge as the single biggest determinant for economic growth and corporate earnings in the second half of 2017-18.
Regarding the monetary policy stance of the government, the report said that significant monetary accommodation by the Central Bank is not likely during the year owing to elevated oil/commodity prices, strengthening dollar, and rising global bond yields.
On December 7, the central bank had kept interest rate unchanged despite calls for lowering it and also lowered the economic growth projection by half a percentage point to 7.1 per cent in the first policy review post demonetisation.
The central bank will hold its next monetary policy meet on February 8.
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