US stocks led global shares higher on Monday after Federal Reserve policymakers sounded cautious notes on near-term interest rate increases, while the US currency slipped.
Comments from Fed officials in the past few weeks had raised speculation of a US rate increase this year and the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan recently refrained from further monetary policy easing, fueling Friday’s broad stocks sell-off and rise in bond yields.
But US stocks began to recover on Monday morning after Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank president Dennis Lockhart said economic conditions warrant a “serious discussion” of whether to raise rates at next week’s Fed meeting, adding that there was no urgency to act.
“Lockhart helped assuage fears that a rate hike in September was imminent,” said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark, New Jersey.
Stocks hit session highs after Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who some had expected to abandon her stance and open the door to higher rates, said the US central bank must be careful not to remove stimulus too quickly.
Brainard used the plural “months” to indicate how much more economic data she wants to monitor, a key suggestion according to Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.
“This doesn’t mean November isn’t in play, but you’d be hard-pressed to still believe a September hike is in the offing,” he said.
The probability markets assigned to a Fed rate hike at next week’s meeting fell to 15 per cent from 24 per cent on Friday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 239.62 points, or 1.32 per cent, to 18,325.07, the S&P 500 gained 31.23 points, or 1.47 per cent, to 2,159.04 and the Nasdaq Composite added 85.98 points, or 1.68 per cent, to 5,211.89.
A gauge of equities across major markets turned positive on Brainard’s remarks after falling 1 per cent earlier in the session. It was last up 0.3 per cent.
European stocks ended down 1 per cent, cutting an earlier loss in half. Asian stocks finished lower, tracking Wall Street’s large decline on Friday. Nikkei futures were flat after having fallen more than 1.5 per cent earlier.
Yen rises, oil up
The US dollar hit a session low against the euro and yen as Brainard’s remarks further cut into expectations of a tightening move from the Fed, while speculation about a less-accommodative Bank of Japan boosted the yen.
The greenback was last down 0.8 per cent against the yen at 101.83 yen and little changed against the euro at $1.1229.
“September is off the table,” said Douglas Borthwick, managing director at Chapdelaine Foreign Exchange in New York referring to chances of a hike at the September 20-21 Fed meeting.
“We continue to expect dollar weakness going forward until the end of the year.”
The dollar index was last down 0.2 per cent.
The benchmark US Treasury yield was little changed after having risen to 1.697 per cent, the highest since late June.
“The market right now is battling with the timing and how likely it is that they get a hike off this year,” said Aaron Kohli, interest rate strategist at BMO Capital Markets in New York.
In commodities markets, crude oil prices ended higher, with traders citing a weaker US dollar and stronger U.S. stocks.
Brent crude futures gained 0.2 per cent to $48.12 a barrel, having recovered from a session low of $46.90, while US crude rose from an intraday low of $44.72 to trade at $46.02, up 0.3 per cent.
The biggest fall in US crude oil inventories since 1999 last week, together with hopes for a deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia on stabilising crude output at this month’s OPEC meeting, have supported oil prices in the past week.