As the newly-constituted Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) started its first meeting today to fix the benchmark interest rate, experts say RBI may opt for status quo and wait for further easing of inflation.
The six-member panel headed by RBI Governor Urjit Patel began its two-day deliberations to consider various factors like inflation, credit offtake and the need to propel growth, foreign trade and global economic factors.
Moving away from the usual practice of announcement at 11 am, the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy review would be made public at 2:30 pm tomorrow after the MPC meeting.
Experts are of the opinion that given the price situation, the panel is expected to keep rates unchanged to meet the targeted inflation of 4 per cent with the margin of 2 per cent on either side.
“I don’t think the Reserve Bank is going to change rates as inflation readings — based on both WPI and CPI — have not softened much,” Bank of Maharashtra Managing Director and Chief Executive R P Marathe told PTI.
August retail inflation eased to a five-month low of 5.05 per cent but WPI inflation climbed to a two-year high of 3.74 per cent.
The government had in August notified 4 per cent inflation target with a range of plus/minus 2 per cent for the next five years under the monetary policy framework agreement with the Reserve Bank.
Patel was the one who wrote the inflation targeting path for RBI when he was deputy to former Governor Rajan, and analysts say it is unlikely that he will jettison his guard on price rise, especially under the new inflation targeting framework.
“RBI is unlikely to cut rate this time,” Union Bank of India Chairman and Managing Director Arun Tiwari said.
On his policy expectations from the new Governor, he said the Patel may announce “some more measures related to resolution of non-performing assets”.