Public sector banks are likely to see a 10-11 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in their overall income as credit growth is likely to rise as the economy gains momentum, according to Crisil Research estimates relating to Q1 FY16 results.
Private banks are seen outdoing their public sector peers with an expected rise of 18-19 per cent in total income for Q1 FY16.
Net interest income of PSBs is likely to see a 3 per cent sequential rise to ₹43,600 crore whereas for private banks it would rise 2.4 per cent to ₹21,000 crore.
PSBs will see gross NPAs (non-performing assets) going up marginally to 5.1 per cent as delinquencies are expected to rise. This, Crisil said, will restrict net interest income growth despite some PSBs lowering deposit rates.
Gross NPAs for private banks will remain healthy at 2 per cent due to their strong credit appraisal mechanisms.
The net interest margin (NIM) of PSBs are expected to be flat at 2.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter while private bank NIMs are also likely to remain flat at 4 per cent.
Deposits at PSUs are likely to grow at 10-11 per cent sequentially, while at private banks deposit growth will remain flat at 16 per cent.