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Consumer confidence paused on its uptrend as sentiments on all parameters, except spending, recorded some moderations in the latest bi-monthly consumer confidence survey released by the Reserve Bank of India. For the year ahead, consumer confidence remained at elevated level in the optimistic terrain though it declined, albeit marginally, due to relatively tempered sentiments on the general economic situation and employment prospects.
Consumers expect higher rise in overall spending over the next one-year vis-à-vis the previous survey round; more respondents expect an increase in both essential and non-essential spending, the survey revealed.
The bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households for the three-month and one year ahead periods increased by 20 basis points (bps) and 10 bps, respectively, but remained in single digits. Their perception on current inflation, however, moderated by 10 bps and stood at 8.0 per cent in the latest survey round. A higher share of respondents expected prices and inflation to rise for all major product groups over the next three months as well as one-year periods. Among occupation categories, self-employed respondents group expected highest inflation. At the aggregate level, female respondents had marginally lower inflation assessment and expectations than their male counterparts.
The survey of professional forecasters showed that real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2024-25, revised up by 10 basis points (bps) from the previous round. It is expected to grow by 6.7 per cent in 2025-26, revised up by 20 bps from March 2024 survey round. The panellists placed GDP growth forecasts in the range of 6.4-8.1 per cent for 2024-25 and in the range of 6.0-7.7 per cent for 2025-26.
Annual growth in real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) and real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) for 2024-25 are expected at 6.0 per cent and 8.6 per cent, respectively. Real gross value added (GVA) growth projection has been revised up marginally to 6.6 per cent for 2024-25 and kept unchanged at 6.4 per cent for 2025-26.
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