Former Bangladesh Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina’s ouster comes at a critical juncture for India. Hasina had been a key ally for India, helping foster key defence, economic and cultural ties between the two neighbours. India is currently contending with an aggressive China and a hostile Pakistan on the Western front. With the chaos now also ensuing in Bangladesh, India will have to contend with volatility on its eastern border as well. Bangladesh is India’s 25th largest trading partner. India has made significant investments in the region over the last two decades. The bilateral trade currently stands at $12.9 billion.

Recently, India also secured the operational rights of the strategic Mongla port. All that goes into jeopardy due to the political flux in the country, with fears of growing Chinese influence, and ISI interference gaining strength. Whichever organisation and agencies, especially Pakistan, are doing proxy war in Kashmir and seeking to encircle India from all sides, China supports them in this. Bangladesh is the biggest trading partner of China. The majority of Bangladesh’s defence equipment imports are from China, so there is influence of China there. China and Pakistan aim to set up conditions that will impede the stability in northeastern India.

India shares more than 4000 kilometres of border with Bangladesh in West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram. There has been a constant influx of people from across the border throughout these decades, more so during periods of volatility. Experts have expressed concerns over the potential spillover. With Hasina’s departure, India will have to navigate through many diplomatic and strategic challenges on multiple fronts. It can ill afford the creation of another hostile enemy waiting in its wings. Whether the ongoing situation in Bangladesh evolves to India’s benefit or detriment remains to be seen.

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