Erstwhile monsoon depression in east-central Bay of Bengal has weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area and is now lying centred over west-central Bay, nearer to east India coast.

India Met Department expects the system to move in a north-westerly direction (towards Odisha coast) and weaken further in the process.

LANDFALL SOON

Global models too predict nearly the same scenario, but indicate that it could retain the same strength as it enters the Odisha coast over the next couple of days.

From here, the core rain belt will get blown towards the North-Eastern states under the influence of the prevailing western disturbance.

With this, activity in the Bay of Bengal may recede and focus shift to south-central Arabian Sea where a weather system is expected to take shape during this week.

There is a surge in thundershower activity being forecast over Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu from mid-week but these will get classified as summer showers only.

This is because the intensity of rain may come down towards June 1, which is the normal date for onset of the monsoon over the Kerala coast.

ARABIAN SEA SCENE

This is because the ill-timed Arabian Sea system invested with the wrong coordinates (location) will move away from the Kerala coast to Gulf of Eden-Persian Gulf.

The entourage of cloudiness and moisture that would otherwise have been directed towards Kerala will be forced in this manner to turn course midway.

The onset of seasonal rains over Kerala and its spread along the west coast and into adjoining interior may have to wait beyond June 1.

The onset has been delayed in this manner a few times during the past few years with ‘rogue’ weather systems spiriting away monsoon moisture and clouds away from Kerala coast just on the eve of the normal date of June 1.

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