Bay 'low' expected to form by Sunday, forecast models differ on strength of weather system

The first pre-monsoon low-pressure area is expected to form over the South Andaman Sea (South-East Bay of Bengal) by Sunday, the India Met Department (IMD) has said. It will start bringing heavy rain into the Andaman & Nicobar Islands from Saturday, the IMD said, without elaborating on its further development or track of movement.

'FORECAST MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT'

The US Climate Prediction Centre too has agreed that there is possibility of formation of a system in the Bay of Bengal, but qualified it by adding that models are now in poor agreement. This is apparently being attributed to the expected formation of a much stronger system (a likely cyclone) around the same time, not too far away in the South-East Indian Ocean.

Also, forecast models now say that an existing circulation upstream over the Comorin region (around Sri Lanka) could act as a check on the flows bound for the Bay of Bengal. The cyclone to its South and a circulation to the West-South-West could starve the Bay system of the flows and moisture needed to find its feet and make its presence known.

The ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction persisted with its forecast for a churn in the Bay, but with 'limited scope' in terms of impact for Myanmar, where it is headed.

CYCLONE WEAKENS

Meanwhile, the existing low-pressure system and cyclone 'Fakir' located some distance apart in the South Indian Ocean, have weakened further. These two have been responsible for sending out remote swell waves to the Indian coast, situated thousands of kilometres North of the Equator. The US Climate Prediction Centre said 'Fakir' has weakened as dramatically as it had raced to cyclone strength yesterday. Its counterpart lingered some distance to its North-East.

But the Hyderabad-based Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Sciences has placed both the coasts of the country under continued alert for residual waves emanating from these systems. It is in this context that forecast of another likely powerful cyclone has come, to be located to the South-East Indian Ocean and originating off Jakarta in Indonesia.