Tranquility seems to have returned to the waters of the western basin of the South Indian Ocean, with both the raging low-pressure systems, one being a cyclone, having weakened and faded out. The swell wave alert for the West Coast and Lakshadweep has since been lifted, though coastal waters and the western coast of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands are still under watch.
FRESH STORM?
Global forecasts indicate the possibility of the formation of a fresh system of likely cyclonic strength by next week, yet again in the South Indian Ocean, though to the eastern basin (off Jakarta, Indonesia). Back home, the India Met Department (IMD) has persisted with its outlook for a low-pressure area shaping up over the South Andaman Sea by Sunday.
This would be a by-product of the churn the larger Indian Ocean to the South has been witnessing during the past week or so, and under the influence of the Coriolis effect. Today's wind chart projections mapped by the IMD model suggests that it could become a stronger weather system in the Bay and head for the Myanmar/ Bangladesh coasts initially.
BAY, ARABIAN SEA SETTING
The ensemble model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction too has indicated this possibility, with a remnant of the system likely heading towards the Odisha coast. In any case, the system would help the easterly wind regime in the Bay as it prepares to host the monsoon to its South-East basin (Andaman Sea) more than a week before mainland India does.
Forecast models have also put under scrutiny a persisting circulation over the Comorin-Laccadive Sea region around Sri Lanka for signs of further evolution. For instance, the US model shows the system travelling in a West-North-West direction and parking along the Kerala coast in South India, and developing further even as the Bay system grows in strength.
WESTERN DISTURBANCE
Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, East India and North-East India from May. Isolated heavy rain is also likely over the north-eastern atates during this period. This could likely be the handiwork of a western disturbance moving eastward across North India from tomorrow.
The western disturbance would bring scattered to fairly widespread precipitation over the western Himalayas and isolated rain over the plains of North India from tomorrow. Thunderstorms accompanied by squalls or hailstorms are likely over the hills as well as the plains of North-West India. But heat wave conditions are forecast for Vidarbha and West Madhya Pradesh.