Chhattisgarh phase 1: Will Congress be able to defend its tribal bastion?

Explosions and encounters between security forces and Left-wing extremists on Sunday marked heightened violence in the forested tip of southern Chhattisgarh 24 hours before the first round of polling in the Assembly elections.

A BSF sub-inspector is reported to have died of injuries sustained in an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast in Chhattisgarh, the fourth among a series of such incidents which have claimed at least seven lives in the last two weeks.

Badly mauled by the Maoist violence that wiped out its entire top leadership in the May 2013 Jhiram Valley massacre, the Congress’ keenness to defend its stronghold in these largely tribal parts seems almost uncharacteristic. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s one rally for voters in the Bastar division on November 9 was matched by Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s third visit to Chhattisgarh since elections were announced, topped by a roadshow in Chief Minister Raman Singh’s constituency Rajnandgaon and five public rallies till the very last hour of campaigning over the weekend.

Devati Karma, sitting MLA from Dantewada and the widow of Mahendra Karma who was killed in the Jhiram Valley massacre along with 26 other Congress leaders, is seething at the PM’s remark at his Jagdalpur rally on November 9 that her party is aligned with “urban Naxals”.

Speaking to BusinessLine over phone from Dantewada, Karma and her daughter Anchaltook turns to hotly contest what the PM said. “He says the Congress is aligned with ‘Naxals’. What would he know about our suffering, of the people who live in constant fear of Maoists? I have lost my husband in the violence. We are still living here and fighting. The BJP has been ruling for 15 years and their party president claims the State is ‘Naxal free’. Have they heard the explosions that happened today?” said Karma.

Karma and the State Congress leadership are worried that their supporters may not step out to vote in the face of escalating Maoist violence. “We have appealed to the Election Commission to fly our polling agents and film the polling process, especially in booths in interior areas like Sukma, Antagarh, Narainpur, and Dantewada. The State machinery and security forces can be misused in this atmosphere of terror,” said General Secretary of the Chhattisgarh Pradesh Congress Committee, Rajesh Tiwari.

The ‘third force’

It is a direct and closely-fought contest between the BJP and the Congress with only one element of the “third force” — an alliance between former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the CPI — having the potential to cause any significant damage. Ajit Jogi’s own party is not quite relevant here as his base is largely among the Satnami community in the Scheduled Caste voters with only one SC seat in the first phase, in sharp contrast to 12 Scheduled Tribe (ST) seats where the Congress has an upper hand.

Jogi’s other major partner, the BSP’s vote varies between as low as 0.8 per cent in Rajnandgaon and 4.05 per cent in Mohala-Manpur.

It is the quieter partner in “third front”, the CPI, which can cause serious damage, mainly to the Congress. In four seats — Konta, Dantewada, Bijapur and Chitrakot — the CPI’s vote share is between 9.3 per cent and as high as 26.15 per cent. Communist stalwart Manish Kunjam secured 26.15 per cent vote share in the reserved seat of Konta, which the Congress’s Kevari Lakma won with a vote share of 36.40 per cent in 2013.

The BJP is, however, confident that it will make up for seeming losses in these hilly, forested parts in the second and the bigger round on November 20 when polling will be held for the majority of the seats. For this round of just 18 seats, the Congress can be temporarily confident.