The receding Covid pandemic will enter the endemic stage by mid-March, and there is little likelihood of a fourth wave as some studies have earlier suggested.
Talking exclusively to BusinessLine, Samiran Panda, Additional Director General, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said on Monday that the receding numbers are in line with the projections made by his team. Endemic stage is the point at which there is less transmission of the virus and it persists for an indefinite period. India reported 6,915 Covid cases on Monday, nearly 14 per cent lower than the previous day’s infections of 8,013. The daily positivity rate was at 0.77 per cent.
“I had already said that the cases would come down by March. My team in ICMR had projected that the daily cases would be less than the baseline by mid-March and that is exactly what we are seeing now. Around mid-March, we will probably be reaching the endemic stage,” said Panda.
Meanwhile, reputed virologist T Jacob John, said the country has already entered into an endemic stage, but it needed to be observed for at least four more weeks.
“My definition of endemic stage is low and steady numbers with only minor fluctuations lasting for four weeks. When you reach 10,000 daily cases, that is when the wave is over. Now hopefully, we are entering the endemic stage. But only after four weeks will we be justified in saying that we are in the endemic stage,” said John.
Fourth wave
On a recent modeling study by the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur, which suggested that the fourth wave may begin by May 22, John said that the virus behaviour does not indicate another wave.
“Virology and epidemiology do not indicate any further waves. Biomedical things have multiple factors like immunity, virus behavior, the probability of further variants, which need to be taken into account to come to any conclusion. So, I don’t agree with that prediction,” John added.
The ICMR scientist, too, dismissed the IIT study and its prediction of a fourth wave.
“The science behind that article is very weak. Actually, there is no substance to it. There are no solid mechanistic assumptions in that study. This paper doesn’t inform public health decisions in a significant way,” said Panda.