The very severe cyclone 'Vayu' is apparently changing tracks and would spare the Saurashtra-Gujarat coast a direct hit through a landfall, according to latest forecasts.

India Met Department (IMD), in an morning update on Thursday, located the system about 150 km South-South-West of Diu; 110 km South-South-West of Veraval; and 150 km nearly South of Porbandar.

Move towards Oman coast

It said the system is likely to move nearly to the North-West for some time and then to the North-West skirting the Saurashtra coast, possibly eyeing the Oman coast, as some models put it.

However, high winds with speeds reaching 145 km/hr and gusting to 160 km/hr may affect Amreli, Gir Somnath, Diu, Junagarh, Porbandar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka and Kutch districts from this afternoon.

Significantly, the IMD bulletin did not say anything about a landfall over Gujarat coast, a forecast for which was maintained till late Wednesday night, along the Veraval-Porbandar coast.

It may be recalled that a storm tracker of the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Service had maintained a track skirting the Gujarat coast and caressing the Karachi-Southern Pakistan coast towards Oman. A forecast by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, cited model forecasts to suggest that 'Vayu' would turn North-West and change course to the West from this afternoon.

 FLASH FLOODS, STORM SURGE

The very severe cyclone will maintain its intensity until tomorrow, and trigger rainfall amounting to 12.5 cm in the next two days along Coastal Karnataka and 7 cm in South-West Gujarat.

It forecast gale winds of 11 km/hr along the South-West coast of Gujarat and high waves rising up to 29 ft through the day. 

Attendant risks include flash flooding, storm surge, downed trees, power outages, and damage to buildings. If 'Vayu' travels north without changing its course, the intensity of winds and precipitation amounts will increase.

According to the US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, the vertical wind shear (sudden change in wind speed and direction with height) will relax, allowing the storm tower to maintain its structure. This should allow for some intensification away from the Gujarat-Saurashtra coast, though the dry air infiltrating the system from the Arabian deserts to the West would weaken the system strength in due course.

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