Shortly before the Rajasthan Assembly elections in 2023, Rahul Gandhi said the Congress was confident about victory in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh but was facing a takkar in Rajasthan. What was then seen as a lack of faith in CM Ashok Gehlot turned out to be only part of the prediction that was correct. Wiped out in MP and Chhattisgarh, the party put up a fierce fight in Rajasthan.

Now, going into the Lok Sabha elections, the Gehlot-Pilot rivalry is still to abate, but its fall-out is contained. The Congress has also managed a few alliances - with Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Parthy (RLP) in Nagaur, the CPI (M) in Sikar and the Bharat Adivasi Party in Banswara.

In contrast, the BJP which has swept all 25 of Rajasthan’s Lok Sabha constituencies twice, comes into these polls after the Assembly victory. Yet, this campaign feels different. PM Narendra Modi may still have support but it does not echo with the enthusiasm of 2014 or 2019. The word you hear resoundingly across different regions of the State is takkar (challenge).

If in 2019, a woman voter in southern Rajasthan, chose, on her own, to mention Pulwama, Balakot and spoke of Modi as a protector of the nation, this time around, national themes do not come up spontaneously, not even the Ram Mandir. The themes centre on local candidates and community pride.

Mewar, in southern Rajasthan which polls on April 26, remains the BJP’s most secure bastion. This is Rana Pratap’s territory, where the RSS’ Vanvasi Kalyan Parishad has worked among the Bhil adivasis and the Congress has failed to build a next generation of leaders.

Mahima Kumari, from the erstwhile royal family of Mewar, should win easily on the back of a large Rajput vote and the region’s royal hangover. In contrast, the Congress stalwart, CP Joshi, who once dominated Mewar, having lost the MLA elections, is contesting from Bhilwara, often called “the Nagpur of Rajasthan”.

Outside Mewar, repeated terms in power are having an impact on BJP heavyweights who are locked in difficult contests, all going to the poll on April 26. In the State’s largest constituency, Barmer-Jaisalmer, in the heart of the Thar, Agriculture Minister Kailash Chaudhary has been asking people “not to make Modi pay for his mistakes”.

Jat-Rajput rivalry

He faces not just the Congress candidate Umeda Ram but also a 26-year-old independent, Ravindra Singh Bhati. Umed Ram and Chaudhary are Jats, in a region where the Jat-Rajput rivalry is fierce. The last time a Rajput won was in 2004. Bhati rose to prominence as an ABVP student leader. Denied a ticket from the BJP, he contested and won an Assembly constituency. A social media star, his rallies have drawn massive crowds, especially Rajput youth.

Union Minister Gajendra Shekhawat faces local ire in the Jodhpur seat while Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla is facing similar resentment in Kota-Bundi in the east. Shekhawat’s constituency falls in the Marwar region, home to Gehlot, who is the sitting MLA from Sardarpura. Shekhawat won in 2014 and in 2019, defeating Gehlot’s son Vaibhav who has shifted to Jalore, where he is in with a fight. Vasundhra Raje Scindia’s son, Dushyant Singh, however, is slated to win comfortably form Jhalawar-Baran.

Beniwal’s popularity

The BJP’s other area of concern is the ground zero of Jat politics – Nagaur, in north-west Rajasthan. Here, the Congress is banking on Beniwal. A popular Jat leader, he walked out of the NDA in 2020, demanding the repeal of the farm laws.

In one of the State’s most acerbic electoral battles, Beniwal faces Jyoti Mirdha, grand-daughter of Congress stalwart Nathuram Mirdha. The two had faced off in 2019 as well with Mirdha in the Congress and Beniwal winning as the NDA candidate. Beniwal has made good use of a recent video of Mirdha saying that the BJP will change the Constitution if it comes to power.

In eastern Rajasthan, the resurgent Sachin Pilot campaign may bring some of the Gujjars back to the Congress. In Dausa city, six men at a chai stall handed out wedding cards, embossed with an image of Colonel Bainsla, who spearheaded the Gujjar agitation for reservation, and Sachin Pilot. After casting their vote on April 19, one of them called to say, “The results will show you exactly what we said, Sachin, like his father (Rajesh Pilot) will rule.”

Unlikely as that may seem, what seems certain is that the takkar in the State should ensure that the Congress stakes a presence in the Lok Sabha from Rajasthan for the first time in three terms.

(The writer is an independent journalist)

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