In the last and final phase of polling for the Lok Sabha elections, Trinamool Congress will be defending its strongest citadel wherein it had won nine out of nine seats in the 2019 elections.
This time, the BJP is taking the fight into this area considered home turf for the Mamata Banerjee-led party.
Nine constituencies of West Bengal — Kolkata Uttar, Kolkata Dakshin, Jadavpur, Dum Dum, Barasat, Basirhat, Diamond Harbour, Jaynagar and Mathurapur — will be going to the polls on Saturday in the last phase of elections.
Each of these constituencies, spanning over three districts of the State — Kolkata, North 24 Parganas and South 24 Parganas — has distinct characteristics in terms of diverse demographic makeup, socio-economic groups and urban-rural divide. While residents of constituencies like Kolkata Uttar (Kolkata North), Kolkata Dakshin (Kolkata South), Jadavpur and Dum Dum are from the “Calcutta Bhadralok” community and mostly middle-class, constituencies like Diamond Harbour, Basirhat, Jaynagar and Mathurapur are more rural-centric.
TMC national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee is seeking re-election from the Diamond Harbour LS seat in South 24 Parganas district. BJP has named party old-timer Abhijit Das from the constituency, while CPI(M) fielded Pratikur Rahman, making the electoral battle at Diamond Harbour a three-way tussle.
According to the political observers, the ruling Trinamool Congress in the state is well placed in seven of the nine constituencies. BJP has greater chances to upset TMC in two constituencies — Basirhat and Kolkata Uttar.
“For the nine seats which are going to the polls on June 1, we cannot have any survey related data at this point. Thus, no data can show that TMC has suffered big setbacks in any recent elections (municipality, corporation and panchayat) held after the 2021 state Assembly polls. However, there are many questions related to the last panchayat election, though it went in favour of TMC. For BJP, we have seen a slight downward trend of votes from the 2021 state Assembly elections, while for the Left a slight upward direction of votes can be seen,” political analyst Subhamoy Maitra told businessline.
“Constituencies suc as Dum Dum and Jadavpur have witnessed a Left resurgence recently. If BJP’s vote comes to CPI-M’s kitty in these constituencies, then the battle might be easier for TMC. On the other hand, if CPI(M) cuts Trinamool’s vote, then BJP would come at a competitive place. There is also a good chance for a triangular fight if both the events happen. So, at this moment it is difficult to come to any conclusion,” Maitra added.
For Basirhat and Kolkata Uttar, political dynamics have changed from the last LS elections held in 2019. Basirhat Lok Sabha constituency has become a major political battleground for both BJP and TMC for the Sandeshkhali violence.
Sandeshkhali, a small island in the Sundarban delta in West Bengal’s North 24-Parganas district, has emerged as an epicentre of a major political storm for the last five months with allegations and counter-allegations between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP heating up the scene. In the alleged violence and sexual harassment against women, a controversial TMC leader is the main accused.
In Kolkata Uttar seat, it is a battle between a Trinamool old guard and a party defector, who joined the BJP in March.
Tapas Ray joined the BJP, citing “disillusionment” with the TMC leadership, giving a major jolt to the Mamata Banerjee-led party. Ray is contesting against TMC MP Sudip Bandyopadhyay, who has won the seat ever since it came into existence in 2009.